Author
Steven J. Phipps
Other affiliations: Rutherford Appleton Laboratory, Cooperative Research Centre, Hobart Corporation ...read more
Bio: Steven J. Phipps is an academic researcher from University of Tasmania. The author has contributed to research in topics: Climate model & Climate change. The author has an hindex of 34, co-authored 100 publications receiving 4508 citations. Previous affiliations of Steven J. Phipps include Rutherford Appleton Laboratory & Cooperative Research Centre.
Papers published on a yearly basis
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Federal Urdu University1, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution2, Columbia University3, Addis Ababa University4, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology5, University of Trieste6, Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research7, University of Montpellier8, University of Bergen9, University of Chile10, Austral University of Chile11, Australian Antarctic Division12, University of Tasmania13, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration14, University of Mainz15, Xishuangbanna Tropical Botanical Garden16, Nepal Academy of Science and Technology17, Chinese Academy of Sciences18, University of Melbourne19, Complutense University of Madrid20, Université catholique de Louvain21, University of the Witwatersrand22, Hydrologic Research Center23, University of Bern24, University of Helsinki25, Northern Arizona University26, Fukushima University27, Stockholm University28, Université Paris-Saclay29, National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research30, University of Giessen31, Swansea University32, Desert Research Institute33, National Scientific and Technical Research Council34, British Antarctic Survey35, Nagoya University36, University of Brighton37, Florida State University38, Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research39, University of Exeter40, University of New South Wales41, Centro de Estudios Científicos42, University of Florence43, University of Texas at Austin44, Russian Academy of Sciences45, University of Washington46, National Centre for Antarctic and Ocean Research47, University of Arizona48, Ghent University49, University of Ottawa50, University of Copenhagen51, University of Colorado Boulder52, Shinshu University53
TL;DR: The authors reconstructed past temperatures for seven continental-scale regions during the past one to two millennia and found that the most coherent feature in nearly all of the regional temperature reconstructions is a long-term cooling trend, which ended late in the nineteenth century.
Abstract: Past global climate changes had strong regional expression To elucidate their spatio-temporal pattern, we reconstructed past temperatures for seven continental-scale regions during the past one to two millennia The most coherent feature in nearly all of the regional temperature reconstructions is a long-term cooling trend, which ended late in the nineteenth century At multi-decadal to centennial scales, temperature variability shows distinctly different regional patterns, with more similarity within each hemisphere than between them There were no globally synchronous multi-decadal warm or cold intervals that define a worldwide Medieval Warm Period or Little Ice Age, but all reconstructions show generally cold conditions between ad 1580 and 1880, punctuated in some regions by warm decades during the eighteenth century The transition to these colder conditions occurred earlier in the Arctic, Europe and Asia than in North America or the Southern Hemisphere regions Recent warming reversed the long-term cooling; during the period ad 1971–2000, the area-weighted average reconstructed temperature was higher than any other time in nearly 1,400 years
885 citations
TL;DR: The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is the primary pattern of climate variability in the Southern Hemisphere, influencing latitudinal rainfall distribution and temperatures from the subtropics to Antarctica as discussed by the authors.
Abstract: The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is the primary pattern of climate variability in the Southern Hemisphere1, 2, influencing latitudinal rainfall distribution and temperatures from the subtropics to Antarctica. The positive summer trend in the SAM over recent decades is widely attributed to stratospheric ozone depletion2; however, the brevity of observational records from Antarctica1—one of the core zones that defines SAM variability—limits our understanding of long-term SAM behaviour. Here we reconstruct annual mean changes in the SAM since AD 1000 using, for the first time, proxy records that encompass the full mid-latitude to polar domain across the Drake Passage sector. We find that the SAM has undergone a progressive shift towards its positive phase since the fifteenth century, causing cooling of the main Antarctic continent at the same time that the Antarctic Peninsula has warmed. The positive trend in the SAM since ~AD 1940 is reproduced by multimodel climate simulations forced with rising greenhouse gas levels and later ozone depletion, and the long-term average SAM index is now at its highest level for at least the past 1,000 years. Reconstructed SAM trends before the twentieth century are more prominent than those in radiative-forcing climate experiments and may be associated with a teleconnected response to tropical Pacific climate. Our findings imply that predictions of further greenhouse-driven increases in the SAM over the coming century3 also need to account for the possibility of opposing effects from tropical Pacific climate changes.
298 citations
University of Southern California1, Northern Arizona University2, MathWorks3, University of Arizona4, Australian National University5, United States Geological Survey6, Australian Antarctic Division7, University of Tasmania8, University of Maryland, College Park9, University of Melbourne10, Spanish National Research Council11, University of Cambridge12, University of Wollongong13, University of Bern14, Ca' Foscari University of Venice15, University of Texas at Austin16, University of Bergen17, Chinese Academy of Sciences18, Norwegian Polar Institute19, National University of Cuyo20, University of Washington21, University of Adelaide22, Victoria University of Wellington23, Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research24, University of Montpellier25, National Taiwan Ocean University26, Columbia University27, Louisiana State University28, University of Maine29, Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute30, Saint Petersburg State University31, Northumbria University32, Lund University33, Institut national de la recherche scientifique34, Tribhuvan University35, Nepal Academy of Science and Technology36, University of Ottawa37, Université catholique de Louvain38, Hirosaki University39, University of Gothenburg40, Xiamen University41, National Institute of Polar Research42, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology43, Aix-Marseille University44, National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research45, Russian Academy of Sciences46, Autonomous University of Barcelona47, British Antarctic Survey48, University of Tübingen49, University of Brighton50, University of the Witwatersrand51, Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research52, Université Paris-Saclay53, Sukachev Institute of Forest54, University of Toronto55, University at Buffalo56, Australian Nuclear Science and Technology Organisation57, Aarhus University58, University of Florence59, Pierre-and-Marie-Curie University60, Paul Scherrer Institute61, University of Minnesota62, University of Regina63, Concordia University64, National Centre for Antarctic and Ocean Research65, University of New South Wales66, University of the Ryukyus67, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration68, University of Colorado Boulder69, Lehigh University70, Australian Institute of Marine Science71, Free University of Berlin72
TL;DR: A community-sourced database of temperature-sensitive proxy records from the PAGES2k initiative, suited to investigations of global and regional temperature variability over the Common Era, and is shared in the Linked Paleo Data (LiPD) format, including serializations in Matlab, R and Python.
Abstract: Reproducible climate reconstructions of the Common Era (1 CE to present) are key to placing industrial-era warming into the context of natural climatic variability. Here we present a community-sourced database of temperature-sensitive proxy records from the PAGES2k initiative. The database gathers 692 records from 648 locations, including all continental regions and major ocean basins. The records are from trees, ice, sediment, corals, speleothems, documentary evidence, and other archives. They range in length from 50 to 2000 years, with a median of 547 years, while temporal resolution ranges from biweekly to centennial. Nearly half of the proxy time series are significantly correlated with HadCRUT4.2 surface temperature over the period 1850–2014. Global temperature composites show a remarkable degree of coherence between high- and low-resolution archives, with broadly similar patterns across archive types, terrestrial versus marine locations, and screening criteria. The database is suited to investigations of global and regional temperature variability over the Common Era, and is shared in the Linked Paleo Data (LiPD) format, including serializations in Matlab, R and Python.
260 citations
Université Paris-Saclay1, University of Reading2, University of Leeds3, Max Planck Society4, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology5, University of Tokyo6, University of Cologne7, University of Oregon8, University College London9, Université catholique de Louvain10, Complutense University of Madrid11, University of Bern12, University of Birmingham13, University of Bristol14, University of Chile15, Cornell University16, University of Toronto17, University of Tasmania18, VU University Amsterdam19, Goddard Institute for Space Studies20, St. John's University21, Chinese Academy of Sciences22
TL;DR: In this paper, a series of GMD papers on the PMIP4-CMIP6 experiments are presented, with a focus on their novel features compared to the experiments performed in previous phases of PMIP and CMIP.
Abstract: . This paper is the first of a series of four GMD papers on the PMIP4-CMIP6 experiments. Part 2 (Otto-Bliesner et al., 2017) gives details about the two PMIP4-CMIP6 interglacial experiments, Part 3 (Jungclaus et al., 2017) about the last millennium experiment, and Part 4 (Kageyama et al., 2017) about the Last Glacial Maximum experiment. The mid-Pliocene Warm Period experiment is part of the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) – Phase 2, detailed in Haywood et al. (2016). The goal of the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) is to understand the response of the climate system to different climate forcings for documented climatic states very different from the present and historical climates. Through comparison with observations of the environmental impact of these climate changes, or with climate reconstructions based on physical, chemical, or biological records, PMIP also addresses the issue of how well state-of-the-art numerical models simulate climate change. Climate models are usually developed using the present and historical climates as references, but climate projections show that future climates will lie well outside these conditions. Palaeoclimates very different from these reference states therefore provide stringent tests for state-of-the-art models and a way to assess whether their sensitivity to forcings is compatible with palaeoclimatic evidence. Simulations of five different periods have been designed to address the objectives of the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6): the millennium prior to the industrial epoch (CMIP6 name: past1000); the mid-Holocene, 6000 years ago (midHolocene); the Last Glacial Maximum, 21 000 years ago (lgm); the Last Interglacial, 127 000 years ago (lig127k); and the mid-Pliocene Warm Period, 3.2 million years ago (midPliocene-eoi400). These climatic periods are well documented by palaeoclimatic and palaeoenvironmental records, with climate and environmental changes relevant for the study and projection of future climate changes. This paper describes the motivation for the choice of these periods and the design of the numerical experiments and database requests, with a focus on their novel features compared to the experiments performed in previous phases of PMIP and CMIP. It also outlines the analysis plan that takes advantage of the comparisons of the results across periods and across CMIP6 in collaboration with other MIPs.
189 citations
University of Wollongong1, University of Maryland, College Park2, Université catholique de Louvain3, Aix-Marseille University4, University of Cambridge5, Spanish National Research Council6, United States Geological Survey7, Autonomous University of Barcelona8, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution9, Aarhus University10, University of Paris11, University of New South Wales12, Xiamen University13, University of Texas at Austin14, Lund University15, Northumbria University16
TL;DR: In this article, a global ocean sea surface temperature (SST) synthesis (Ocean2k SST synthesis) spanning the Common Era is presented, which shows a cooling trend that is similar, within uncertainty, to that simulated by realistically forced climate models for the past millennium.
Abstract: Knowledge of natural climate variability is essential to better constrain the uncertainties in projections of twenty-first-century climate change 1–5. The past 2,000 years (2 kyr) have emerged as a critical interval in this endeavour, with sufficient length to characterize natural decadal-to-centennial scale change, known external climate forcings 6 and with distinctive patterns of spatiotemporal temperature variations 7. However, reconstructions for the full 2 kyr interval are not available for the global ocean, a primary heat reservoir 8 and an important regulator of global climate on longer timescales 9–11. Here we present a global ocean sea surface temperature (SST) synthesis (Ocean2k SST synthesis) spanning the Common Era, which shows a cooling trend that is similar, within uncertainty, to that simulated by realistically forced climate models for the past millennium. We use the simulations to identify the climate forcing(s) consistent with reconstructed SST variations during the past millennium. The oceans mediate the response of global climate to natural and anthropogenic forcings. Yet for the past 2,000 years — a key interval for understanding the present and future climate response to these forcings — global sea surface temperature changes and the underlying driving mechanisms are poorly constrained. Here we present a global synthesis of sea surface temperatures for the Common Era (ce) derived from 57 individual marine reconstructions that meet strict quality control criteria. We observe a cooling trend from 1 to 1800 ce that is robust against explicit tests for potential biases in the reconstructions. Between 801 and 1800 ce, the surface cooling trend is qualitatively consistent with an independent synthesis of terrestrial temperature reconstructions, and with a sea surface temperature composite derived from an ensemble of climate model simulations using best estimates of past external radiative forcings. Climate simulations using single and cumulative forcings suggest that the ocean surface cooling trend from 801 to 1800 ce is not primarily a response to orbital forcing but arises from a high frequency of explosive volcanism. Our results show that repeated clusters of volcanic eruptions can induce a net negative radiative forcing that results in a centennial and global scale cooling trend via a decline in mixed-layer oceanic heat content.
181 citations
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TL;DR: In this article, the authors present a document, redatto, voted and pubblicato by the Ipcc -Comitato intergovernativo sui cambiamenti climatici - illustra la sintesi delle ricerche svolte su questo tema rilevante.
Abstract: Cause, conseguenze e strategie di mitigazione Proponiamo il primo di una serie di articoli in cui affronteremo l’attuale problema dei mutamenti climatici. Presentiamo il documento redatto, votato e pubblicato dall’Ipcc - Comitato intergovernativo sui cambiamenti climatici - che illustra la sintesi delle ricerche svolte su questo tema rilevante.
4,187 citations
National Center for Atmospheric Research1, Utrecht University2, Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency3, German Aerospace Center4, University of Exeter5, University of Maryland, College Park6, ETH Zurich7, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research8, Met Office9, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis10, Graz University of Technology11
TL;DR: The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) as discussed by the authors is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Comparison Project (CMIP6) that will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes produced with integrated assessment models.
Abstract: . Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) that will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes produced with integrated assessment models. In this paper, we describe ScenarioMIP's objectives, experimental design, and its relation to other activities within CMIP6. The ScenarioMIP design is one component of a larger scenario process that aims to facilitate a wide range of integrated studies across the climate science, integrated assessment modeling, and impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability communities, and will form an important part of the evidence base in the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. At the same time, it will provide the basis for investigating a number of targeted science and policy questions that are especially relevant to scenario-based analysis, including the role of specific forcings such as land use and aerosols, the effect of a peak and decline in forcing, the consequences of scenarios that limit warming to below 2 °C, the relative contributions to uncertainty from scenarios, climate models, and internal variability, and long-term climate system outcomes beyond the 21st century. To serve this wide range of scientific communities and address these questions, a design has been identified consisting of eight alternative 21st century scenarios plus one large initial condition ensemble and a set of long-term extensions, divided into two tiers defined by relative priority. Some of these scenarios will also provide a basis for variants planned to be run in other CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs to investigate questions related to specific forcings. Harmonized, spatially explicit emissions and land use scenarios generated with integrated assessment models will be provided to participating climate modeling groups by late 2016, with the climate model simulations run within the 2017–2018 time frame, and output from the climate model projections made available and analyses performed over the 2018–2020 period.
1,758 citations
TL;DR: The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) as discussed by the authors dominates the variability of the equatorial stratosphere (∼16-50 km) and is easily seen as downward propagating easterly and westerly wind regimes, with a variable period averaging approximately 28 months.
Abstract: The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) dominates the variability of the equatorial stratosphere (∼16–50 km) and is easily seen as downward propagating easterly and westerly wind regimes, with a variable period averaging approximately 28 months. From a fluid dynamical perspective, the QBO is a fascinating example of a coherent, oscillating mean flow that is driven by propagating waves with periods unrelated to that of the resulting oscillation. Although the QBO is a tropical phenomenon, it affects the stratospheric flow from pole to pole by modulating the effects of extratropical waves. Indeed, study of the QBO is inseparable from the study of atmospheric wave motions that drive it and are modulated by it. The QBO affects variability in the mesosphere near 85 km by selectively filtering waves that propagate upward through the equatorial stratosphere, and may also affect the strength of Atlantic hurricanes. The effects of the QBO are not confined to atmospheric dynamics. Chemical constituents, such as ozone, water vapor, and methane, are affected by circulation changes induced by the QBO. There are also substantial QBO signals in many of the shorter-lived chemical constituents. Through modulation of extratropical wave propagation, the QBO has an effect on the breakdown of the wintertime stratospheric polar vortices and the severity of high-latitude ozone depletion. The polar vortex in the stratosphere affects surface weather patterns, providing a mechanism for the QBO to have an effect at the Earth's surface. As more data sources (e.g., wind and temperature measurements from both ground-based systems and satellites) become available, the effects of the QBO can be more precisely assessed. This review covers the current state of knowledge of the tropical QBO, its extratropical dynamical effects, chemical constituent transport, and effects of the QBO in the troposphere (∼0–16 km) and mesosphere (∼50–100 km). It is intended to provide a broad overview of the QBO and its effects to researchers outside the field, as well as a source of information and references for specialists. The history of research on the QBO is discussed only briefly, and the reader is referred to several historical review papers. The basic theory of the QBO is summarized, and tutorial references are provided.
1,744 citations
TL;DR: The authors reviewed the historical genesis of the Anthropocene Epoch idea and assessed anthropogenic signatures in the geological record against the formal requirements for the recognition of a new epoch, finding that of the various proposed dates two do appear to conform to the criteria to mark the beginning of the anthropocene: 1610 and 1964.
Abstract: Time is divided by geologists according to marked shifts in Earth's state. Recent global environmental changes suggest that Earth may have entered a new human-dominated geological epoch, the Anthropocene. Here we review the historical genesis of the idea and assess anthropogenic signatures in the geological record against the formal requirements for the recognition of a new epoch. The evidence suggests that of the various proposed dates two do appear to conform to the criteria to mark the beginning of the Anthropocene: 1610 and 1964. The formal establishment of an Anthropocene Epoch would mark a fundamental change in the relationship between humans and the Earth system.
1,578 citations
British Geological Survey1, University of Leicester2, Scott Polar Research Institute3, University of California, Berkeley4, Centre national de la recherche scientifique5, Jan Kochanowski University6, University of the Basque Country7, University of Maryland, Baltimore County8, Institut de recherche pour le développement9, Free University of Berlin10, Georgetown University11, Duke University12, Australian National University13, University of Colorado Boulder14, Fridtjof Nansen Institute15, University of Vienna16, Chinese Academy of Sciences17, Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies18, University of Nairobi19, Harvard University20, University of Alberta21
TL;DR: C climatic, biological, and geochemical signatures of human activity in sediments and ice cores, Combined with deposits of new materials and radionuclides, as well as human-caused modification of sedimentary processes, the Anthropocene stands alone stratigraphically as a new epoch beginning sometime in the mid–20th century.
Abstract: Human activity is leaving a pervasive and persistent signature on Earth. Vigorous debate continues about whether this warrants recognition as a new geologic time unit known as the Anthropocene. We review anthropogenic markers of functional changes in the Earth system through the stratigraphic record. The appearance of manufactured materials in sediments, including aluminum, plastics, and concrete, coincides with global spikes in fallout radionuclides and particulates from fossil fuel combustion. Carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus cycles have been substantially modified over the past century. Rates of sea-level rise and the extent of human perturbation of the climate system exceed Late Holocene changes. Biotic changes include species invasions worldwide and accelerating rates of extinction. These combined signals render the Anthropocene stratigraphically distinct from the Holocene and earlier epochs.
1,441 citations