Author
Steven K. Rose
Other affiliations: United States Environmental Protection Agency
Bio: Steven K. Rose is an academic researcher from Electric Power Research Institute. The author has contributed to research in topics: Greenhouse gas & Land use. The author has an hindex of 34, co-authored 94 publications receiving 15468 citations. Previous affiliations of Steven K. Rose include United States Environmental Protection Agency.
Papers published on a yearly basis
Papers
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Utrecht University1, Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency2, Joint Global Change Research Institute3, National Institute for Environmental Studies4, International Institute of Minnesota5, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory6, University of Maryland, College Park7, National Center for Atmospheric Research8, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research9, Vienna University of Technology10, Electric Power Research Institute11
TL;DR: The Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) as discussed by the authors is a set of four new pathways developed for the climate modeling community as a basis for long-term and near-term modeling experiments.
Abstract: This paper summarizes the development process and main characteristics of the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), a set of four new pathways developed for the climate modeling community as a basis for long-term and near-term modeling experiments. The four RCPs together span the range of year 2100 radiative forcing values found in the open literature, i.e. from 2.6 to 8.5 W/m 2 . The RCPs are the product of an innovative collaboration between integrated assessment modelers, climate modelers, terrestrial ecosystem modelers and emission inventory experts. The resulting product forms a comprehensive data set with high spatial and sectoral resolutions for the period extending to 2100. Land use and emissions of air pollutants and greenhouse gases are reported mostly at a 0.5×0.5 degree spatial resolution, with air pollutants also provided per sector (for well-mixed gases, a coarser resolution is used). The underlying integrated assessment model outputs for land use, atmospheric emissions and concentration data were harmonized across models and scenarios to ensure consistency with historical observations while preserving individual scenario trends. For most variables, the RCPs cover a wide range of the existing literature. The RCPs are supplemented with extensions (Extended Concentration Pathways, ECPs), which allow
6,169 citations
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Joint Global Change Research Institute1, National Center for Atmospheric Research2, Victoria University of Wellington3, Electric Power Research Institute4, Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency5, Finnish Environment Institute6, National Institute for Environmental Studies7, Met Office8, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis9, Vienna University of Technology10, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration11, Stanford University12, Oak Ridge National Laboratory13
TL;DR: A new process for creating plausible scenarios to investigate some of the most challenging and important questions about climate change confronting the global community is described.
Abstract: Advances in the science and observation of climate change are providing a clearer understanding of the inherent variability of Earth's climate system and its likely response to human and natural influences. The implications of climate change for the environment and society will depend not only on the response of the Earth system to changes in radiative forcings, but also on how humankind responds through changes in technology, economies, lifestyle and policy. Extensive uncertainties exist in future forcings of and responses to climate change, necessitating the use of scenarios of the future to explore the potential consequences of different response options. To date, such scenarios have not adequately examined crucial possibilities, such as climate change mitigation and adaptation, and have relied on research processes that slowed the exchange of information among physical, biological and social scientists. Here we describe a new process for creating plausible scenarios to investigate some of the most challenging and important questions about climate change confronting the global community.
5,670 citations
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Technical University of Berlin1, Indian Institute of Science2, Chalmers University of Technology3, Technical University of Denmark4, Norwegian University of Science and Technology5, National Renewable Energy Laboratory6, Autonomous University of Barcelona7, University of California, Davis8, University of Groningen9, The Nature Conservancy10, Alpen-Adria-Universität Klagenfurt11, Humboldt University of Berlin12, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research13, ETH Zurich14, Electric Power Research Institute15, University of Aberdeen16, University of California, Santa Barbara17, National Autonomous University of Mexico18
TL;DR: In this article, the authors bring together perspectives of various communities involved in the research and regulation of bioenergy deployment in the context of climate change mitigation: Land-use and energy experts, land use and integrated assessment modelers, human geographers, ecosystem researchers, climate scientists and two different strands of life-cycle assessment experts.
Abstract: Bioenergy deployment offers significant potential for climate change mitigation, but also carries considerable risks. In this review, we bring together perspectives of various communities involved in the research and regulation of bioenergy deployment in the context of climate change mitigation: Land-use and energy experts, land-use and integrated assessment modelers, human geographers, ecosystem researchers, climate scientists and two different strands of life-cycle assessment experts. We summarize technological options, outline the state-of-the-art knowledge on various climate effects, provide an update on estimates of technical resource potential and comprehensively identify sustainability effects. Cellulosic feedstocks, increased end-use efficiency, improved land carbon-stock management and residue use, and, when fully developed, BECCS appear as the most promising options, depending on development costs, implementation, learning, and risk management. Combined heat and power, efficient biomass cookstoves and small-scale power generation for rural areas can help to promote energy access and sustainable development, along with reduced emissions. We estimate the sustainable technical potential as up to 100EJ: high agreement; 100-300EJ: medium agreement; above 300EJ: low agreement. Stabilization scenarios indicate that bioenergy may supply from 10 to 245EJyr(-1) to global primary energy supply by 2050. Models indicate that, if technological and governance preconditions are met, large-scale deployment (>200EJ), together with BECCS, could help to keep global warming below 2 degrees degrees of preindustrial levels; but such high deployment of land-intensive bioenergy feedstocks could also lead to detrimental climate effects, negatively impact ecosystems, biodiversity and livelihoods. The integration of bioenergy systems into agriculture and forest landscapes can improve land and water use efficiency and help address concerns about environmental impacts. We conclude that the high variability in pathways, uncertainties in technological development and ambiguity in political decision render forecasts on deployment levels and climate effects very difficult. However, uncertainty about projections should not preclude pursuing beneficial bioenergy options.
550 citations
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TL;DR: The EMF 22 International Scenarios as mentioned in this paper were based on the combined implications of three factors integral to international climate negotiations: (1) the long-term climate-related target, expressed in this study in terms of the CO2-equivalent (CO2-e) concentration associated with the GHGs regulated under the Kyoto Protocol, whether or not this target can be temporarily exceeded prior to 2100 ("overshoot") allowing for greater near-term flexibility, and (3) the nature of international participation in emissions mitigation.
546 citations
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01 Jan 2014509 citations
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TL;DR: The fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) will produce a state-of-the- art multimodel dataset designed to advance the authors' knowledge of climate variability and climate change.
Abstract: The fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) will produce a state-of-the- art multimodel dataset designed to advance our knowledge of climate variability and climate change. Researchers worldwide are analyzing the model output and will produce results likely to underlie the forthcoming Fifth Assessment Report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Unprecedented in scale and attracting interest from all major climate modeling groups, CMIP5 includes “long term” simulations of twentieth-century climate and projections for the twenty-first century and beyond. Conventional atmosphere–ocean global climate models and Earth system models of intermediate complexity are for the first time being joined by more recently developed Earth system models under an experiment design that allows both types of models to be compared to observations on an equal footing. Besides the longterm experiments, CMIP5 calls for an entirely new suite of “near term” simulations focusing on recent decades...
12,384 citations
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Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency1, Utrecht University2, Joint Global Change Research Institute3, National Institute for Environmental Studies4, International Institute of Minnesota5, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory6, University of Maryland, College Park7, National Center for Atmospheric Research8, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research9, Vienna University of Technology10, Electric Power Research Institute11
TL;DR: The Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) as discussed by the authors is a set of four new pathways developed for the climate modeling community as a basis for long-term and near-term modeling experiments.
Abstract: This paper summarizes the development process and main characteristics of the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), a set of four new pathways developed for the climate modeling community as a basis for long-term and near-term modeling experiments. The four RCPs together span the range of year 2100 radiative forcing values found in the open literature, i.e. from 2.6 to 8.5 W/m 2 . The RCPs are the product of an innovative collaboration between integrated assessment modelers, climate modelers, terrestrial ecosystem modelers and emission inventory experts. The resulting product forms a comprehensive data set with high spatial and sectoral resolutions for the period extending to 2100. Land use and emissions of air pollutants and greenhouse gases are reported mostly at a 0.5×0.5 degree spatial resolution, with air pollutants also provided per sector (for well-mixed gases, a coarser resolution is used). The underlying integrated assessment model outputs for land use, atmospheric emissions and concentration data were harmonized across models and scenarios to ensure consistency with historical observations while preserving individual scenario trends. For most variables, the RCPs cover a wide range of the existing literature. The RCPs are supplemented with extensions (Extended Concentration Pathways, ECPs), which allow
6,169 citations
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Harvard University1, Stockholm Resilience Centre2, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research3, University of Oxford4, City University London5, World Wide Fund for Nature6, Chatham House7, Environmental Change Institute8, University of Minnesota9, University of California, Santa Barbara10, CGIAR11, Johns Hopkins University12, American University of Beirut13, Wageningen University and Research Centre14, Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation15, ETH Zurich16, Indian Institute of Technology Kanpur17, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation18, University of Indonesia19, World Health Organization20, Food and Agriculture Organization21, International Food Policy Research Institute22, Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences23, University of Auckland24, Public Health Foundation of India25, Centre for Science and Environment26
TL;DR: Food in the Anthropocene : the EAT-Lancet Commission on healthy diets from sustainable food systems focuses on meat, fish, vegetables and fruit as sources of protein.
4,710 citations
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University of Illinois at Urbana–Champaign1, Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean2, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences3, University of Leeds4, University of Oslo5, United States Environmental Protection Agency6, University of Michigan7, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory8, German Aerospace Center9, United States Department of Energy10, Max Planck Society11, University of Tokyo12, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration13, Forschungszentrum Jülich14, Norwegian Meteorological Institute15, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay16, China Meteorological Administration17, Peking University18, Met Office19, Desert Research Institute20, Clarkson University21, Stanford University22, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts23, International Institute of Minnesota24, Goddard Institute for Space Studies25, Yale University26, University of Washington27, University of California, Irvine28
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors provided an assessment of black-carbon climate forcing that is comprehensive in its inclusion of all known and relevant processes and that is quantitative in providing best estimates and uncertainties of the main forcing terms: direct solar absorption; influence on liquid, mixed phase, and ice clouds; and deposition on snow and ice.
Abstract: Black carbon aerosol plays a unique and important role in Earth's climate system. Black carbon is a type of carbonaceous material with a unique combination of physical properties. This assessment provides an evaluation of black-carbon climate forcing that is comprehensive in its inclusion of all known and relevant processes and that is quantitative in providing best estimates and uncertainties of the main forcing terms: direct solar absorption; influence on liquid, mixed phase, and ice clouds; and deposition on snow and ice. These effects are calculated with climate models, but when possible, they are evaluated with both microphysical measurements and field observations. Predominant sources are combustion related, namely, fossil fuels for transportation, solid fuels for industrial and residential uses, and open burning of biomass. Total global emissions of black carbon using bottom-up inventory methods are 7500 Gg yr−1 in the year 2000 with an uncertainty range of 2000 to 29000. However, global atmospheric absorption attributable to black carbon is too low in many models and should be increased by a factor of almost 3. After this scaling, the best estimate for the industrial-era (1750 to 2005) direct radiative forcing of atmospheric black carbon is +0.71 W m−2 with 90% uncertainty bounds of (+0.08, +1.27) W m−2. Total direct forcing by all black carbon sources, without subtracting the preindustrial background, is estimated as +0.88 (+0.17, +1.48) W m−2. Direct radiative forcing alone does not capture important rapid adjustment mechanisms. A framework is described and used for quantifying climate forcings, including rapid adjustments. The best estimate of industrial-era climate forcing of black carbon through all forcing mechanisms, including clouds and cryosphere forcing, is +1.1 W m−2 with 90% uncertainty bounds of +0.17 to +2.1 W m−2. Thus, there is a very high probability that black carbon emissions, independent of co-emitted species, have a positive forcing and warm the climate. We estimate that black carbon, with a total climate forcing of +1.1 W m−2, is the second most important human emission in terms of its climate forcing in the present-day atmosphere; only carbon dioxide is estimated to have a greater forcing. Sources that emit black carbon also emit other short-lived species that may either cool or warm climate. Climate forcings from co-emitted species are estimated and used in the framework described herein. When the principal effects of short-lived co-emissions, including cooling agents such as sulfur dioxide, are included in net forcing, energy-related sources (fossil fuel and biofuel) have an industrial-era climate forcing of +0.22 (−0.50 to +1.08) W m−2 during the first year after emission. For a few of these sources, such as diesel engines and possibly residential biofuels, warming is strong enough that eliminating all short-lived emissions from these sources would reduce net climate forcing (i.e., produce cooling). When open burning emissions, which emit high levels of organic matter, are included in the total, the best estimate of net industrial-era climate forcing by all short-lived species from black-carbon-rich sources becomes slightly negative (−0.06 W m−2 with 90% uncertainty bounds of −1.45 to +1.29 W m−2). The uncertainties in net climate forcing from black-carbon-rich sources are substantial, largely due to lack of knowledge about cloud interactions with both black carbon and co-emitted organic carbon. In prioritizing potential black-carbon mitigation actions, non-science factors, such as technical feasibility, costs, policy design, and implementation feasibility play important roles. The major sources of black carbon are presently in different stages with regard to the feasibility for near-term mitigation. This assessment, by evaluating the large number and complexity of the associated physical and radiative processes in black-carbon climate forcing, sets a baseline from which to improve future climate forcing estimates.
4,591 citations
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TL;DR: In this article, the authors present the background and rationale for the new structure of CMIP, provides a detailed description of the DECK and CMIP6 historical simulations, and includes a brief introduction to the 21-CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs.
Abstract: . By coordinating the design and distribution of global climate model simulations of the past, current, and future climate, the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) has become one of the foundational elements of climate science. However, the need to address an ever-expanding range of scientific questions arising from more and more research communities has made it necessary to revise the organization of CMIP. After a long and wide community consultation, a new and more federated structure has been put in place. It consists of three major elements: (1) a handful of common experiments, the DECK (Diagnostic, Evaluation and Characterization of Klima) and CMIP historical simulations (1850–near present) that will maintain continuity and help document basic characteristics of models across different phases of CMIP; (2) common standards, coordination, infrastructure, and documentation that will facilitate the distribution of model outputs and the characterization of the model ensemble; and (3) an ensemble of CMIP-Endorsed Model Intercomparison Projects (MIPs) that will be specific to a particular phase of CMIP (now CMIP6) and that will build on the DECK and CMIP historical simulations to address a large range of specific questions and fill the scientific gaps of the previous CMIP phases. The DECK and CMIP historical simulations, together with the use of CMIP data standards, will be the entry cards for models participating in CMIP. Participation in CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs by individual modelling groups will be at their own discretion and will depend on their scientific interests and priorities. With the Grand Science Challenges of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) as its scientific backdrop, CMIP6 will address three broad questions: – How does the Earth system respond to forcing? – What are the origins and consequences of systematic model biases? – How can we assess future climate changes given internal climate variability, predictability, and uncertainties in scenarios? This CMIP6 overview paper presents the background and rationale for the new structure of CMIP, provides a detailed description of the DECK and CMIP6 historical simulations, and includes a brief introduction to the 21 CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs.
4,192 citations