In this book, Andrew Harvey sets out to provide a unified and comprehensive theory of structural time series models. Unlike the traditional ARIMA models, structural time series models consist explicitly of unobserved components, such as trends and seasonals, which have a direct interpretation. As a result the model selection methodology associated with structural models is much closer to econometric methodology. The link with econometrics is made even closer by the natural way in which the models can be extended to include explanatory variables and to cope with multivariate time series. From the technical point of view, state space models and the Kalman filter play a key role in the statistical treatment of structural time series models. The book includes a detailed treatment of the Kalman filter. This technique was originally developed in control engineering, but is becoming increasingly important in fields such as economics and operations research. This book is concerned primarily with modelling economic and social time series, and with addressing the special problems which the treatment of such series poses. The properties of the models and the methodological techniques used to select them are illustrated with various applications. These range from the modellling of trends and cycles in US macroeconomic time series to to an evaluation of the effects of seat belt legislation in the UK.

Forecasting, Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter

In this paper recent developments in the estimation of frontier functions and the measurement of efficiency are surveyed, and the potential applicability of these methods in agricultural economics is discussed. Frontier production, cost and profit functions are discussed, along with the construction of technical, allocative, scale and overall efficiency measures relative to these estimated frontiers. The two primary methods of frontier estimation, econometric and linear programming, are compared. A survey of recent applications of frontier methods in agriculture is also provided. (This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Recent Developments in Frontier Modelling and Efficiency Measurement

Since 1999, China has pursued Grain for Green, an ambitious conservation set-aside program to prevent soil erosion. This paper evaluates its cost-effectiveness and sustainability. The results indicate that while the program has made a clear attempt to retire plots that are susceptible to soil erosion, there is room for better targeting. The government also may be able to generate fiscal savings if the payments more accurately reflect the differences in the opportunity costs of each plot. The study finds that some farmers may reconvert the land back to cultivation after program ends.

https://www.jstor.org/stable/info/4129667

Grain for Green: Cost-Effectiveness and Sustainability of China’s Conservation Set-Aside Program

This study explores to which extent the members’ assessment of their cooperatives’ degree of success are related to various member attributes, with special reference to the members’ perception of their participation in the governance of the cooperatives. Three categories of member attributes are identified: Satisfaction with the profitability of farm operations, Age, and Experience from board work. The cooperatives’ degree of success is measured as members’ commitment towards cooperatives, and members’ trust in the board of directors. The data originates from a mail survey among Swedish farmers. A total of 2,250 farmers received a questionnaire. The response rate was 52%. The results indicate differences in members’ cooperative commitment and their trust towards directors to be due to farm operations profitability, age and experience as directors. After adding members’ perception of their participation in the governance as a covariate, most of the other differences are explained by this variable. Age is still to some extent associated with trust towards directors, as older farmers have less trust in directors.

https://emnet.univie.ac.at/fileadmin/user_upload/conf_EMNet/2007/papers/Oesterberg_Hakelius_Nilsson.pdf

Members' perception of their participation in the governance of cooperatives: the key to trust and commitment in agricultural cooperatives.

This paper examines factors influencing the adoption of improved maize seeds and the use of inorganic fertilizer for maize production by farmers in the intermediate and lowland zones of Tanzania. The results indicate that availability of extension services, on-farm field trials, variety characteristics and rainfall were the most important factors that influenced the extent of adopting improved maize seeds and the use of inorganic fertilizer for maize production. Farmers preferred those varieties which minimize field loss rather than maximizing yields. Future research and extension policies should emphasize farmer participation in the research process and on-farm field trials for varietal evaluation and demonstration purposes.

/pdf/factors-affecting-adoption-of-improved-maize-seeds-and-use-2ziqe0j15b.pdf

Factors affecting adoption of improved maize seeds and use of inorganic fertilizer for maize production in the intermediate and lowland zones of Tanzania

The relationship between seven types of food safety concerns and the corresponding change in food consumption habits of 236 households in Georgia, USA was evaluated. Results showed a gap between food safety concerns and food consumption habits. Gaps were particularly evident in the cases of pesticide residues, animal drug residues, growth hormones and bacteria. For example, more than 54% of sample households were extremely concerned about pesticide residues, but only 35% actually took extreme precaution in buying items considering this perceived threat. The study indicated that educating consumers about preventive methods to reduce food safety threats will lead to reduced concerns and changes in food consumption habits.

Perception of food safety and changes in food consumption habits: a consumer analysis

This article revisits the issue of crop-yield distributions using improved model specifications, estimation, and testing procedures that address the concerns raised in recent literature, which could have invalidated previous findings of yield nonnormality. It concludes that some aggregate and farm-level yield distributions are nonnormal, kurtotic, and right or left skewed, depending on the circumstances. The advantages of utilizing nonnormal versus normal probability distribution function models, and the consequences of incorrectly assuming crop-yield normality are explored.

/pdf/crop-yield-distributions-revisited-1ph224xjfb.pdf

Crop-Yield Distributions Revisited

This paper revisits the issue of crop yield distributions using improved model specifications, estimation and testing procedures that address the methodological concerns raised in recent literature that could have invalidated previous conclusions of yield non-normality. It shows beyond reasonable doubt that some crop yield distributions are non-normal, kurtotic and right or left skewed, depending on the circumstances. A procedure to jointly estimate non-normal farm- and aggregate-level yield distributions with similar means but different variances is illustrated, and the consequences of incorrectly assuming yield normality are explored.

Are crop yields normally distributed

This paper develops and illustrates the application of a procedure to evaluate and compare the cost effectiveness of alternative crop insurance products for cotton in terms of their effect on expected producer net returns and the variation of net returns. Farm unit-level cotton yields and state-level price distributions are estimated by a multivariate nonnormal parametric modeling procedure and used to simulate the net returns to alternative crop insurance products over a 10-year planning horizon. The ranking of alternative insurance products using third-degree stochastic dominance is presented for Texas cotton producers.

/pdf/evaluating-crop-and-revenue-insurance-products-as-risk-46h9ou66hs.pdf

Evaluating crop and revenue insurance products as risk management tools for Texas cotton producers

The future use of Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) lands is an importantagricultural policy issue. To examine the effects of factors thatinfluence landowners’ post-contract use of CRP lands, a survey of Texas High Plains CRP contract holders was conducted in 1992. This study analyzes the resultsof the survey using a qualitative choice model. It was found that the presence of a livestock enterprise in the current contract holder’s operation increases the probability of these acres remaining in the established cover. Contract holders who value the commodity base have an increased probability of returning their acres to crop production.

/pdf/a-qualitative-choice-analysis-of-factors-influencing-post-2zeytre8y0.pdf

Sukant K. Misra

Papers

Perception of food safety and changes in food consumption habits: a consumer analysis

Crop-Yield Distributions Revisited

Are crop yields normally distributed

Evaluating crop and revenue insurance products as risk management tools for Texas cotton producers

A Qualitative Choice Analysis of Factors Influencing Post-CRP Land Use Decisions