With the rise of China, the East Asian regional order, so long dominated by the U.S. presence and by Japan, is undergoing major power shifts. Increasingly, China is becoming aggressive over its maritime territorial claims in the East China and South China seas. ChinaJapan relations are antagonistic and tensions are on the rise. As a result, Japan, along with South Korea and Vietnam, is not only seeking increased security guarantees from the U.S., but also seeking to establish defence partnerships with India to maintain the balance vis-a-vis Chinese assertiveness. This article offers an explanation of these power shifts in East Asia in particular and Asia in general by interpreting empirical data from the perspectives of two contending international relations theories: realism and liberal institutionalism. From a purely realist perspective, China will become even more aggressive in East Asia. Consequently, it is critical to form a countervailing alliance against its rising power. Meanwhile, liberal institutionalism argues that the international order is flexible and that international institutions and major powers

Power Shifts in East Asia: Balance of Power vs. Liberal Institutionalism

Inde : entre partenariat et concurrence avec l’Europe

China's attitude has been changed to its foreign policy over maritime territorial disputes in Diaoyutai (釣魚台) islands and the South China Sea with its neighbors. Also, China has become more assertive in its border dispute with India since 2006. However, the irritants of Sino-Indian border disputes were often neglected by analysts and security establishments. Unlike the territorial disputes in East China Sea (東海) and South China Sea (南海), the great power involvement, such as the US, has been played a limited role in the Sino-Indian border dispute. This paper applies an IR theorist Benjamin Miller's theoretical approach– state-to-nation imbalance-in order to identify the factors of influencing Sino-Indian border disputes in regional and domestic level of analysis. Therefore, this paper highlights the state-to-nation imbalance derived from the Tibet (西藏問題) issue, which is an underlying factor to contribute to Chinese revisionist claims on Sino-Indian border disputes. Given its insecurity on Tibet, China revised its territorial claim on India's Arunachal Pradesh and Tawang, thus putting the boundary negotiation into deadlock. Meanwhile, China's moves of strengthening infrastructure and increasing deployment of troops in Tibet were perceived by India as a security threat; therefore, it caused mutual military competition and premeditated ‘border intrusion' along the Sino- Indian borders, which in turn intensified Sino-Indian security dilemma.

The Analysis on the Potential Conflicts along the Sino-Indian Borders-From the Perspective of State-to-Nation Imbalance

This paper is written from the perspective of a historian who is aware of the 20th century roots of current problems between the two Asian giants, as well as their tremendous contributions to world civilization and Asian prosperity in the past, and hopefully in the future. The paper analyzes issues troubling India-China relations, such as the unresolved boundary question, sensitivity on matters of international status, and mutual perceptions of threat arising from fears of encirclement. It shows how the two governments have made tremendous progress in overcoming or mitigating these problems, and in establishing strong human and economic ties between the two fastest growing economies in the world. Pakistan continues to be a wild card with a negative impact on India-China as well as India-U.S. relations, but its capacity to create trouble may have been reduced by its own internal problems, as well as progress in the India-Pakistan composite peace process. The United States remains the preponderant military and economic global power, despite recent damage to its moral influence, and all countries, including China and India, try to cultivate close relations with it. Both India and China are engaged with Southeast Asia and with other Asian countries, and each has close and complex relations with the United States. The author sees a low risk of military conflict between India and China and a high desirability of international cooperation among all three in tackling the many facets of human security in the 21st century.

Surjit Mansingh

Papers

Rising China and Emergent India in the 21st Century: Friends or Rivals?