Suryo Guritno

Bio: Suryo Guritno is an academic researcher from Gadjah Mada University. The author has contributed to research in topics: Estimator & Artificial neural network. The author has an hindex of 6, co-authored 34 publications receiving 305 citations. Previous affiliations of Suryo Guritno include Gunadarma University.

Modeling Data Containing Outliers using ARIMA Additive Outlier (ARIMA-AO)

Abstract: The aim this study is discussed on the detection and correction of data containing the additive outlier (AO) on the model ARIMA (p, d, q). The process of detection and correction of data using an iterative procedure popularized by Box, Jenkins, and Reinsel (1994). By using this method we obtained an ARIMA models were fit to the data containing AO, this model is added to the original model of ARIMA coefficients obtained from the iteration process using regression methods. This shows that there is an improvement of forecasting error rate data.

Modeling Data Containing Outliers using ARIMA Additive Outlier (ARIMA-AO)

Abstract: The aim this study is discussed on the detection and correction of data containing the additive outlier (AO) on the model ARIMA (p, d, q). The process of detection and correction of data using an iterative procedure popularized by Box, Jenkins, and Reinsel (1994). By using this method we obtained an ARIMA models were fit to the data containing AO, this model is added to the original model of ARIMA coefficients obtained from the iteration process using regression methods. In the simulation data is obtained that the data contained AO initial models are ARIMA (2,0,0) with MSE = 36,780, after the detection and correction of data obtained by the iteration of the model ARIMA (2,0,0) with the coefficients obtained from the regression Zt = 0,106+0,204Z t−1+0,401Z t−2−329X 1(t)+115X 2(t)+35,9X 3(t) and MSE = 19,365. This shows that there is an improvement of forecasting error rate data.

Pemodelan b-spline dan mars pada nilai ujian masuk terhadap ipk mahasiswa jurusan disain komunikasi visual uk. petra surabaya

Abstract: Regression analysis is constructed for capturing the influences of independent variables to dependent ones. It can be done by looking at the relationship between those variables. This task of approximating the mean function can be done essentially in two ways. The quiet often use parametric approach is to assume that the mean curve has some prespecified functional forms. Alternatively, nonparametric approach, .i.e., without reference to a specific form, is used when there is no information of the regression function form (Haerdle, 1990). Therefore nonparametric approach has more flexibilities than the parametric one. The aim of this research is to find the best fit model that captures relationship between admission test score to the GPA. This particular data was taken from the Department of Design Communication and Visual, Petra Christian University, Surabaya for year 1999. Those two approaches were used here. In the parametric approach, we use simple linear, quadric cubic regression, and in the nonparametric ones, we use B-Spline and Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS). Overall, the best model was chosen based on the maximum determinant coefficient. However, for MARS, the best model was chosen based on the GCV, minimum MSE, maximum determinant coefficient. Abstract in Bahasa Indonesia : Analisa regresi digunakan untuk melihat pengaruh variabel independen terhadap variabel dependent dengan terlebih dulu melihat pola hubungan variabel tersebut. Hal ini dapat dilakukan dengan melalui dua pendekatan. Pendekatan yang paling umum dan seringkali digunakan adalah pendekatan parametrik. Pendekatan parametrik mengasumsikan bentuk model sudah ditentukan. Apabila tidak ada informasi apapun tentang bentuk dari fungsi regresi, maka pendekatan yang digunakan adalah pendekatan nonparametrik. (Haerdle, 1990). Karena pendekatan tidak tergantung pada asumsi bentuk kurva tertentu, sehingga memberikan fleksibelitas yang lebih besar. Tujuan penelitian ini adalah mendapatkan model terbaik mengenai nilai ujian masuk terhadap nilai IPK (Indek Prestasi Kumulatif) mahasiswa jurusan Disain Komunikasi Visual tahun 1999 di Universitas Kristen Petra Surabaya dengan analisis regresi, baik parametrik maupun nonparametrik. Pendekatan regresi parametrik menggunakan regresi linear sederhana, kuadratik dan kubik, sedangkan regresi nonparametrik digunakan B-Spline dan Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS). Secara keseluruhan, model terbaik dipilih berdasarkan koefisien determinasi terbesar. Namun demikian untuk MARS, model terbaik dipilih berdasarkan pada GCV, minimum MSA dan koefisien determinasi terbesar. Kata kunci: regresi nonparametrik, B-Spline, MARS, koefisien determinasi.

Machine learning

Abstract: Machine Learning is the study of methods for programming computers to learn. Computers are applied to a wide range of tasks, and for most of these it is relatively easy for programmers to design and implement the necessary software. However, there are many tasks for which this is difficult or impossible. These can be divided into four general categories. First, there are problems for which there exist no human experts. For example, in modern automated manufacturing facilities, there is a need to predict machine failures before they occur by analyzing sensor readings. Because the machines are new, there are no human experts who can be interviewed by a programmer to provide the knowledge necessary to build a computer system. A machine learning system can study recorded data and subsequent machine failures and learn prediction rules. Second, there are problems where human experts exist, but where they are unable to explain their expertise. This is the case in many perceptual tasks, such as speech recognition, hand-writing recognition, and natural language understanding. Virtually all humans exhibit expert-level abilities on these tasks, but none of them can describe the detailed steps that they follow as they perform them. Fortunately, humans can provide machines with examples of the inputs and correct outputs for these tasks, so machine learning algorithms can learn to map the inputs to the outputs. Third, there are problems where phenomena are changing rapidly. In finance, for example, people would like to predict the future behavior of the stock market, of consumer purchases, or of exchange rates. These behaviors change frequently, so that even if a programmer could construct a good predictive computer program, it would need to be rewritten frequently. A learning program can relieve the programmer of this burden by constantly modifying and tuning a set of learned prediction rules. Fourth, there are applications that need to be customized for each computer user separately. Consider, for example, a program to filter unwanted electronic mail messages. Different users will need different filters. It is unreasonable to expect each user to program his or her own rules, and it is infeasible to provide every user with a software engineer to keep the rules up-to-date. A machine learning system can learn which mail messages the user rejects and maintain the filtering rules automatically. Machine learning addresses many of the same research questions as the fields of statistics, data mining, and psychology, but with differences of emphasis. Statistics focuses on understanding the phenomena that have generated the data, often with the goal of testing different hypotheses about those phenomena. Data mining seeks to find patterns in the data that are understandable by people. Psychological studies of human learning aspire to understand the mechanisms underlying the various learning behaviors exhibited by people (concept learning, skill acquisition, strategy change, etc.).

Interactive home shopping: Consumer, retailer, and manufacturer incentives to participate in

Abstract: The authors examine the implications of electronic shopping for consumers, retailers, and manufacturers. They assume that near-term technological developments will offer consumers unparalleled opportunities to locate and compare product offerings. They examine these advantages as a function of typical consumer goals and the types of products and services being sought and offer conclusions regarding consumer incentives and disincentives to purchase through interactive home shopping vis-à-vis traditional retail formats. The authors discuss implications for industry structure as they pertain to competition among retailers, competition among manufacturers, and retailer-manufacturer relationships.

Singular Value Decomposition for Genome-Wide Expression Data Processing and Modeling

Abstract: ‡We describe the use of singular value decomposition in transforming genome-wide expression data from genes 3 arrays space to reduced diagonalized ‘‘eigengenes’’ 3 ‘‘eigenarrays’’ space, where the eigengenes (or eigenarrays) are unique orthonormal superpositions of the genes (or arrays). Normalizing the data by filtering out the eigengenes (and eigenarrays) that are inferred to represent noise or experimental artifacts enables meaningful comparison of the expression of different genes across different arrays in different experiments. Sorting the data according to the eigengenes and eigenarrays gives a global picture of the dynamics of gene expression, in which individual genes and arrays appear to be classified into groups of similar regulation and function, or similar cellular state and biological phenotype, respectively. After normalization and sorting, the significant eigengenes and eigenarrays can be associated with observed genome-wide effects of regulators, or with measured samples, in which these regulators are overactive or underactive, respectively.

Forecasting methods and applications.

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Student’S Responses On Learning In The Early COVID-19 Pandemic

Abstract: The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic forced many universities to apply online learning. The purpose of this study was to break down the online learning process in the early pandemic as well as effective and optimal online learning. The design of this research is descriptive qualitative research. The data were collected through observation, questionnaires, interviews, and documentation. Interestingly, this study found online learning using the WhatsApp Group to be the most effective in the early COVID-19 pandemic. WhatsApp is easy, simple, and does not require a large data quota package. Through WhatsApp accounts, learning took place optimally because students and lecturers could communicate and share PowerPoint files, Microsoft Word files, JPGs, Voice Notes, Videos, and other learning resource links. The study recommends that other researchers uncover the solution to obstacles experienced by students in online learning and the development of other media to implement effective online lectures.