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Author

T. B

Bio: T. B is an academic researcher. The author has contributed to research in topics: Consumer price index (South Africa) & Johansen test. The author has co-authored 2 publications.

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TL;DR: In this article , an attempt has been made to assess the performance of turmeric in terms of area and production, as well as the cost of cultivation in India using the Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model.
Abstract: India is the world’s main supply of turmeric, accounting for more than 90 per cent of the global turmeric trade. Considering the economic importance of this crop, an attempt has been made to assess the performance of turmeric in terms of area and production, as well as the cost of cultivation in India. Aside from that, the study used the Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model to project the price of turmeric in the future. The results of growth analysis of turmeric area and production in India using secondary data from 1950-51 to 2020-21 through compound growth rate revealed a positive growth pattern of the area, production, and productivity at rates of 2.60, 4.02, and 1.40 per cent per year, respectively. A total of Rs. 3,08,511 was required for one hectare of turmeric output. According to the results of forecasting methods, the price of turmeric would be Rs. 7179, Rs. 7172, Rs. 7170, Rs. 7170, and Rs. 7170 per quintal in May, June, July, August, and September, respectively, assuming the current growth rate remains the same. Due to increased turmeric arrivals, the expected values of turmeric price exhibited a falling trend in the next five months. Hence, the government should increase and maintain funding for turmeric development programmes, given the importance of turmeric in terms of export revenues and domestic requirements. If these challenges are solved, there is a lot of space to increase turmeric production in the future.
Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article , a study was conducted to determine the relationship between macroeconomic growth variables and food inflation in India by using the Johansen Cointegration Test (JCT) and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM).
Abstract: "In India, Food inflation seems to be persistent in recent years. The objective of this study was to determine the relationship between macroeconomic growth variables and food inflation in India. The period of study was from 1982-83 until 2019-20, the data on food wholesale price index, consumer price index for agricultural labour, interest rate and exchange rate were collected from various secondary sources; dummy variables of trade liberalisation and National Food Security Mission were utilised in this study. The collected data were analysed to check cointegration relationships among the variables by using the Johansen Cointegration Test (JCT) and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). From 1982-83 to 2019-20, food inflation has been increasing at a rate of 7.47 per cent per annum. Among all the commodities eggs, meat and fish (148.9 %) were found to have a high percentage change in inflation over the last decade (2010 to 2020). The JCT results revealed a long-run cointegration relationship between variables, with three cointegration equations. The error correction model result suggested the existence of a short-run relationship between the variables and the previous year’s error term was corrected at a 12.6 per cent convergence speed within the year. The Chow test was used to estimate the presence of structural breaks, and the findings (Fcal>Ftab) revealed that there was a substantial difference between the coefficients of the three groups. The core idea of the study is that food inflation and other macroeconomic targets must be consistent."