T. W. Swan

Bio: T. W. Swan is an academic researcher from Australian National University. The author has contributed to research in topics: Capital intensity & Capital deepening. The author has an hindex of 6, co-authored 10 publications receiving 4035 citations. Previous affiliations of T. W. Swan include University of Sydney.

Growth Models: Of Golden Ages and Production Functions

Abstract: In this paper I intend to ask more questions than I can answer, and mainly to urge that economists need to consider very closely what it is that theories of economic growth are about, what questions they are trying to answer, if economic theory is not merely jejune mathematics. We all know that in models of economic growth we can produce stagnation crises, Malthusian traps, inflation barriers, take-off instability situations, even trade cycles, at the drop of a symbolic cliche. The trouble is that any one of quite a lot of cliches will do. We also know that if we were asked to think about a five-year plan for India we would not look to economic theory for ready answers: we would need to learn a great deal about India, about people, about practical techniques and we would not hope for more from economic theory than that it might help us with some basic insights as to how to set about the task. Again, an analytical framework for the economic history of the past may not have much application to the future, if we think of the future (as Keynes did) in terms of ‘a somewhat comprehensive socialization of investment’. Can we conceive of the existence of a theory of economic growth (long-run dynamics, if you like) which would neither be too closely tied to a particular historical situation nor resemble a game of entrepreneurial blindman’s buff, but would provide some relevant insights ? — not a description of reality but (as Joan Robinson says) ‘ a device for sorting out our ideas’?

Catching Up, Forging Ahead, and Falling Behind

Abstract: A widely entertained hypothesis holds that, in comparisons among countries, productivity growth rates tend to vary inversely with productivity levels. A century of experience in a group of presently industrialized countries supports this hypothesis and the convergence of productivity levels it implies. The rate of convergence, however, varied from period to period and showed marked strength only during the first quarter-century following World War II. The general process of convergence was also accompanied by dramatic shifts in countries' productivity rankings. The paper extends the simple catch-up hypothesis to rationalize the fluctuating strength of the process and explores the connections between convergence itself and the relative success of early leaders and latecomers.

Recursive methods in economic dynamics

Abstract: I. THE RECURSIVE APPROACH 1. Introduction 2. An Overview 2.1 A Deterministic Model of Optimal Growth 2.2 A Stochastic Model of Optimal Growth 2.3 Competitive Equilibrium Growth 2.4 Conclusions and Plans II. DETERMINISTIC MODELS 3. Mathematical Preliminaries 3.1 Metric Spaces and Normed Vector Spaces 3.2 The Contraction Mapping Theorem 3.3 The Theorem of the Maximum 4. Dynamic Programming under Certainty 4.1 The Principle of Optimality 4.2 Bounded Returns 4.3 Constant Returns to Scale 4.4 Unbounded Returns 4.5 Euler Equations 5. Applications of Dynamic Programming under Certainty 5.1 The One-Sector Model of Optimal Growth 5.2 A "Cake-Eating" Problem 5.3 Optimal Growth with Linear Utility 5.4 Growth with Technical Progress 5.5 A Tree-Cutting Problem 5.6 Learning by Doing 5.7 Human Capital Accumulation 5.8 Growth with Human Capital 5.9 Investment with Convex Costs 5.10 Investment with Constant Returns 5.11 Recursive Preferences 5.12 Theory of the Consumer with Recursive Preferences 5.13 A Pareto Problem with Recursive Preferences 5.14 An (s, S) Inventory Problem 5.15 The Inventory Problem in Continuous Time 5.16 A Seller with Unknown Demand 5.17 A Consumption-Savings Problem 6. Deterministic Dynamics 6.1 One-Dimensional Examples 6.2 Global Stability: Liapounov Functions 6.3 Linear Systems and Linear Approximations 6.4 Euler Equations 6.5 Applications III. STOCHASTIC MODELS 7. Measure Theory and Integration 7.1 Measurable Spaces 7.2 Measures 7.3 Measurable Functions 7.4 Integration 7.5 Product Spaces 7.6 The Monotone Class Lemma

Reopening the Convergence Debate: A New Look at Cross-Country Growth Empirics

Abstract: There are two sources of inconsistency in existing cross-country empirical work on growth: correlated individual effects and endogenous explanatory variables. We estimate a variety of cross-country growth regressions using a generalized method of moments estimator that eliminates both problems. In one application, we find that per capita incomes converge to their steady-state levels at a rate of approximately 10 percent per year. This result stands in sharp contrast to the current consensus, which places the convergence rate at 2 percent. We discuss the theoretical implications of this finding. In another application, we perform a test of the Solow model. Again, contrary to prior reults, we reject both the standard and the augmented version of the model.

Prosperity without growth : economics for a finite planet

Abstract: Foreword 1. Prosperity Lost 2. The Age of Irresponsibility 3. Redefining Prosperity 4. The Dilemma of Growth 5. The Myth of Decoupling 6. The 'Iron Cage' of Consumerism 7. Keynesianism and the 'Green New Deal' 8. Ecological Macro-Economics 9. Flourishing - within Limits 10. Governance for Prosperity 11. The Transition to a Sustainable Economy 12. A Lasting Prosperity Appendices References Endnotes

Capital-labor substitution and economic efficiency

Abstract: Обсуждаются следующие темы: чистая теория производства, функциональное распределение дохода, технический прогресс, источники международных конкурентных преимуществ. Анализируются эластичность замещения между трудом и капиталом в обрабатывающей промышленности; производственные функции различного типа.