Takatoshi Ito

Bio: Takatoshi Ito is an academic researcher from Tohoku University. The author has contributed to research in topics: Exchange rate & Currency. The author has an hindex of 60, co-authored 476 publications receiving 13725 citations. Previous affiliations of Takatoshi Ito include University of Minnesota & International Monetary Fund.

Do Bulls and Bears Move Across Borders? International Transmission of Stock Returns and Volatility

Abstract: This article investigates empirically how returns and volatilities of stock indices are correlated between the Tokyo and New York markets. Using intradaily data that define daytime and overnight returns for both markets, we find that Tokyo (New York) daytime returns are correlated with New York (Tokyo) overnight returns. We interpret this result as evidence that information revealed during the trading hours of one market has a global impact on the returns of the other market. In order to extract the global factor from the daytime returns of one market, we propose and estimate a signal-extraction model with GARCH processes. Article published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Financial Studies in its journal, The Review of Financial Studies.

Meteor Showers or Heat Waves? Heteroskedastic Intra-Daily Volatility in the Foreign Exchange Market

Abstract: This paper seeks to explain the causes of volatility clustering in exchange rates. Careful examination of intra-daily exchange rates provides a test of two hypotheses-heat waves and meteor showers. The heat wave hypothesis is that the volatility has only country-specific autocorrelation. Alternatively, the meteor shower is a phenomenon of intra-daily volatility spillovers from one market to the next. Using the GARCH model to specify the heteroskedasticity across intra-daily market segments, we find that the empirical evidence is generally against the null hypothesis of the heat wave. Using a volatility type of vector autoregression we examine the impact of news in one market on the time path of per-hour volatility in other markets.

Foreign Exchange Rate Expectations: Micro Survey Data

Abstract: This paper analyzes the panel data of biweekly surveys on the yen/dollar exchange rate expectations of forty-four institutions for two years and contains four major findings. First, market participants are heterogeneous; that is, significant "individual effects" exist in their expectation formation. Second, the individual effects have a characteristic of "wishful expectations": exporters expect yen depreciation and importers expect yen appreciation (relative to others). Third, many violate the rational expectations hypothesis. Fourth, forecasts with long horizons show less yen appreciation than those with short horizons. Cross-equation constraints implied by the consistency of the forecast term structure are strongly rejected in the data. Copyright 1990 by American Economic Association.

Rethinking the East Asian miracle

Abstract: Initially, the intention of this book's work, was to take a fresh look at East Asia's regional experience during the 1990s, and to expand, and revise as necessary the findings of the World Bank's \"East Asian Miracle\", (published in 1993). However, while work began in 1997 - when the East Asian crisis was only a small, localized cloud over Thailand - the seriousness of the crisis demonstrated the need to bring together a number of different perspectives on key aspects of the East Asian model, and its several country variants. The book assesses the evolving experience with industrial policies, in the forms implemented by individual countries in the region, examines in depth how the Chinese experience meshes with those of other economies in the region - a dimension absent in the \"East Asian Miracle\" - and, the rich evidence from the 1990s, casts new light on the relative contribution of export-led policies, and of import liberalization to growth, while helping to clarify key issues that influence the choices of exchange rate policies. Taking into account the realization that understanding the East Asian development requires admittance of the political economy of change, of governance, and of the roles of key institutions, the contributors to this book, considered each of these carefully, and offer an economic kaleidoscope on East Asia that is deep, and analytically rigorous.

Foreign Exchange Rate Expectations: Micro Survey Data

Abstract: This paper analyzes the panel data of bi-weekly surveys, conducted by the Japan Center for International Finance, on the yen/dollar exchange rate expectations of forty-four institutions for two years. There are three major findings in this paper. First, market participants are found to be heterogeneous. There are significant "individual effects" in their expectation formation. Second, many institutions are found to violate the rational expectation hypothesis. Third, forecasts with long horizons showed less yen appreciation than those with short horizons. Cross-equation constraints implied by the consistencyof the forecast term structure are strongly rejected in the data.

Bowling alone: The collapse and revival of American community

Abstract: The present historical moment may seem a particularly inopportune time to review Bowling Alone, Robert Putnam's latest exploration of civic decline in America. After all, the outpouring of volunteerism, solidarity, patriotism, and self-sacrifice displayed by Americans in the wake of the September 11 terrorist attacks appears to fly in the face of Putnam's central argument: that \"social capital\" -defined as \"social networks and the norms of reciprocity and trustworthiness that arise from them\" (p. 19)'has declined to dangerously low levels in America over the last three decades. However, Putnam is not fazed in the least by the recent effusion of solidarity. Quite the contrary, he sees in it the potential to \"reverse what has been a 30to 40-year steady decline in most measures of connectedness or community.\"' As an example of how the current \"war on terrorism\" could generate a durable civic renewal, Putnam points to the burst in civic practices that occurred during and after World War II, which he says \"permanently marked\" the generation that lived through it and had a \"terrific effect on American public life over the last half-century.\" 3 If Americans can follow this example and channel their current civic

Economic Reform and the Process of Global Integration

Abstract: WHEN T H E BROOKINGS Panel on Economic Activity began in 1970, the world economy roughly accorded with the idea of three distinct economic systems: a capitalist first world, a socialist second world, and a developing third world which aimed for a middle way between the first two. The third world was characterized not only by its low levels of per capita GDP, but also by a distinctive economic system that assigned the state sector the predominant role in industrialization, although not the monopoly on industrial ownership as in the socialist economies. The years between 1970 and 1995, and especially the last decade, have witnessed the most remarkable institutional harmonization and economic integration among nations in world history. While economic integration was increasing throughout the 1970s and 1980s, the extent of integration has come sharply into focus only since the collapse of communism in 1989. In 1995 one dominant global economic system is emerging. The common set of institutions is exemplified by the new World Trade Organization (WTO), which was established by agreement of more than 120 economies, with almost all the rest eager to join as rapidly as possible. Part of the new trade agreement involves a codification of basic principles governing trade in goods and services. Similarly, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) now boasts nearly universal membership, with member countries pledged to basic principles of currency convertibility. Most programs of economic reform now underway in the developing world and in the post-communist world have as their strategic aim the

Introductory Econometrics for Finance

Abstract: This bestselling and thoroughly classroom-tested textbook is a complete resource for finance students. A comprehensive and illustrated discussion of the most common empirical approaches in finance prepares students for using econometrics in practice, while detailed case studies help them understand how the techniques are used in relevant financial contexts. Worked examples from the latest version of the popular statistical software EViews guide students to implement their own models and interpret results. Learning outcomes, key concepts and end-of-chapter review questions (with full solutions online) highlight the main chapter takeaways and allow students to self-assess their understanding. Building on the successful data- and problem-driven approach of previous editions, this third edition has been updated with new data, extensive examples and additional introductory material on mathematics, making the book more accessible to students encountering econometrics for the first time. A companion website, with numerous student and instructor resources, completes the learning package.