Terrence M. Joyce

Bio: Terrence M. Joyce is an academic researcher from Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution. The author has contributed to research in topics: Gulf Stream & Water mass. The author has an hindex of 44, co-authored 128 publications receiving 6152 citations. Previous affiliations of Terrence M. Joyce include Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

Enhanced warming over the global subtropical western boundary currents

Abstract: Subtropical western boundary currents are warm, fast-flowing currents that form on the western side of ocean basins. They carry warm tropical water to the mid-latitudes and vent large amounts of heat and moisture to the atmosphere along their paths, affecting atmospheric jet streams and mid-latitude storms, as well as ocean carbon uptake1, 2, 3, 4. The possibility that these highly energetic currents might change under greenhouse-gas forcing has raised significant concerns5, 6, 7, but detecting such changes is challenging owing to limited observations. Here, using reconstructed sea surface temperature datasets and century-long ocean and atmosphere reanalysis products, we find that the post-1900 surface ocean warming rate over the path of these currents is two to three times faster than the global mean surface ocean warming rate. The accelerated warming is associated with a synchronous poleward shift and/or intensification of global subtropical western boundary currents in conjunction with a systematic change in winds over both hemispheres. This enhanced warming may reduce the ability of the oceans to absorb anthropogenic carbon dioxide over these regions. However, uncertainties in detection and attribution of these warming trends remain, pointing to a need for a long-term monitoring network of the global western boundary currents and their extensions.

Oceanic transport of subpolar climate signals to mid-depth subtropical waters

Abstract: The spatial distributions of certain sea-surface properties, such as temperature, fluctuate on timescales from months to decades and in synchrony with the main regional atmospheric patterns comprising the global climate system1 Although it has long been assumed that the ocean is submissive to the dictates of the atmosphere, recent studies raise the possibility of an assertive, not merely passive, oceanic role in which water-mass circulation controls the timescales of climate fluctuations2,3,4,5,6 Previously held notions of the immutability of the physical and chemical characteristics of deep water masses are changing as longer time series of ocean measurements indicate that the signatures of varying sea-surface conditions are translated to deep waters4,7 Here we use such time-series measurements to track signals ‘imprinted’ at the sea surface in the North Atlantic Ocean's subpolar Labrador Basin into the deep water of the subtropical basins near Bermuda, and infer an approximately 6-year transit time We establish a geographic and temporal context for a portion of the long-term warming trend reported for mid-depth subtropical waters over the past 40 or so years8,9, and we predict that waters at these depths will continue to cool well into the next decade

On in situ 'calibration' of shipboard ADCPs

Abstract: Methods for in situ calibration of acoustic-Doppler current profilers (ADCPs) are considered for measurement of absolute current profiles from a moving ship. Errors are of two types: sensitivity and alignment. Least square error estimates are given for experimental determination of both factors, for use in the 'water track' or 'bottom tracking' mode. Errors in the estimation of either factor may lead to large errors in derived water velocities, although the major contributions of the two factors arise from different sources and are approximately orthogonal to one another.

Western Boundary Currents and Frontal Air–Sea Interaction: Gulf Stream and Kuroshio Extension

Abstract: In the Northern Hemisphere midlatitude western boundary current (WBC) systems there is a complex interaction between dynamics and thermodynamics and between atmosphere and ocean. Their potential contribution to the climate system motivated major parallel field programs in both the North Pacific [Kuroshio Extension System Study (KESS)] and the North Atlantic [Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) Mode Water Dynamics Experiment (CLIMODE)], and preliminary observations and analyses from these programs highlight that complexity. The Gulf Stream (GS) in the North Atlantic and the Kuroshio Extension (KE) in the North Pacific have broad similarities, as subtropical gyre WBCs, but they also have significant differences, which affect the regional air–sea exchange processes and their larger-scale interactions. The 15-yr satellite altimeter data record, which provides a rich source of information, is combined here with the longer historical record from in situ data to describe and compare the curr...

Symmetric instability in the Gulf Stream

Abstract: Analyses of wintertime surveys of the Gulf Stream (GS) conducted as part of the CLIvar MOde water Dynamic Experiment (CLIMODE) reveal that water with negative potential vorticity (PV) is commonly found within the surface boundary layer (SBL) of the current. The lowest values of PV are found within the North Wall of the GS on the isopycnal layer occupied by Eighteen Degree Water, suggesting that processes within the GS may contribute to the formation of this low-PV water mass. In spite of large heat loss, the generation of negative PV was primarily attributable to cross-front advection of dense water over light by Ekman flow driven by winds with a down-front component. Beneath a critical depth, the SBL was stably stratified yet the PV remained negative due to the strong baroclinicity of the current, suggesting that the flow was symmetrically unstable. A large eddy simulation configured with forcing and flow parameters based on the observations confirms that the observed structure of the SBL is consistent with the dynamics of symmetric instability (SI) forced by wind and surface cooling. The simulation shows that both strong turbulence and vertical gradients in density, momentum, and tracers coexist in the SBL of symmetrically unstable fronts. SI is a shear instability that draws its energy from geostrophic flows. A parameterization for the rate of kinetic energy (KE) extraction by SI applied to the observations suggests that SI could result in a net dissipation of 33 mW m −2 and 1 mW m −2 for surveys with strong and weak fronts, respectively. The surveys also showed signs of baroclinic instability (BCI) in the SBL, namely thermally direct vertical circulations that advect biomass and PV. The vertical circulation was inferred using the omega equation and used to estimate the rate of release of available potential energy (APE) by BCI. The rate of APE release was found to be comparable in magnitude to the net dissipation associated with SI. This result points to an energy pathway where the GS's reservoir of APE is drained by BCI, converted to KE, and then dissipated by SI and its secondary instabilities. Similar dynamics are likely to be found at other strong fronts forced by winds and/or cooling and could play an important role in the energy balance of the ocean circulation.

On the use and significance of isentropic potential vorticity maps

Abstract: The two main principles underlying the use of isentropic maps of potential vorticity to represent dynamical processes in the atmosphere are reviewed, including the extension of those principles to take the lower boundary condition into account. the first is the familiar Lagrangian conservation principle, for potential vorticity (PV) and potential temperature, which holds approximately when advective processes dominate frictional and diabatic ones. the second is the principle of ‘invertibility’ of the PV distribution, which holds whether or not diabatic and frictional processes are important. the invertibility principle states that if the total mass under each isentropic surface is specified, then a knowledge of the global distribution of PV on each isentropic surface and of potential temperature at the lower boundary (which within certain limitations can be considered to be part of the PV distribution) is sufficient to deduce, diagnostically, all the other dynamical fields, such as winds, temperatures, geopotential heights, static stabilities, and vertical velocities, under a suitable balance condition. the statement that vertical velocities can be deduced is related to the well-known omega equation principle, and depends on having sufficient information about diabatic and frictional processes. Quasi-geostrophic, semigeostrophic, and ‘nonlinear normal mode initialization’ realizations of the balance condition are discussed. an important constraint on the mass-weighted integral of PV over a material volume and on its possible diabatic and frictional change is noted. Some basic examples are given, both from operational weather analyses and from idealized theoretical models, to illustrate the insights that can be gained from this approach and to indicate its relation to classical synoptic and air-mass concepts. Included are discussions of (a) the structure, origin and persistence of cutoff cyclones and blocking anticyclones, (b) the physical mechanisms of Rossby wave propagation, baroclinic instability, and barotropic instability, and (c) the spatially and temporally nonuniform way in which such waves and instabilities may become strongly nonlinear, as in an occluding cyclone or in the formation of an upper air shear line. Connections with principles derived from synoptic experience are indicated, such as the ‘PVA rule’ concerning positive vorticity advection on upper air charts, and the role of disturbances of upper air origin, in combination with low-level warm advection, in triggering latent heat release to produce explosive cyclonic development. In all cases it is found that time sequences of isentropic potential vorticity and surface potential temperature charts—which succinctly summarize the combined effects of vorticity advection, thermal advection, and vertical motion without requiring explicit knowledge of the vertical motion field—lead to a very clear and complete picture of the dynamics. This picture is remarkably simple in many cases of real meteorological interest. It involves, in principle, no sacrifices in quantitative accuracy beyond what is inherent in the concept of balance, as used for instance in the initialization of numerical weather forecasts.

Geophysical fluid dynamics.

Abstract: The potential for sea ice-albedo feedback to give rise to nonlinear climate change in the Arctic Ocean – defined as a nonlinear relationship between polar and global temperature change or, equivalently, a time-varying polar amplification – is explored in IPCC AR4 climate models. Five models supplying SRES A1B ensembles for the 21 st century are examined and very linear relationships are found between polar and global temperatures (indicating linear Arctic Ocean climate change), and between polar temperature and albedo (the potential source of nonlinearity). Two of the climate models have Arctic Ocean simulations that become annually sea ice-free under the stronger CO 2 increase to quadrupling forcing. Both of these runs show increases in polar amplification at polar temperatures above-5 o C and one exhibits heat budget changes that are consistent with the small ice cap instability of simple energy balance models. Both models show linear warming up to a polar temperature of-5 o C, well above the disappearance of their September ice covers at about-9 o C. Below-5 o C, surface albedo decreases smoothly as reductions move, progressively, to earlier parts of the sunlit period. Atmospheric heat transport exerts a strong cooling effect during the transition to annually ice-free conditions. Specialized experiments with atmosphere and coupled models show that the main damping mechanism for sea ice region surface temperature is reduced upward heat flux through the adjacent ice-free oceans resulting in reduced atmospheric heat transport into the region.

Observations: Oceanic Climate Change and Sea Level

Abstract: The oceans are warming. Over the period 1961 to 2003, global ocean temperature has risen by 0.10°C from the surface to a depth of 700 m. Consistent with the Third Assessment Report (TAR), global ocean heat content (0– 3,000 m) has increased during the same period, equivalent to absorbing energy at a rate of 0.21 ± 0.04 W m–2 globally averaged over the Earth’s surface. Two-thirds of this energy is absorbed between the surface and a depth of 700 m. Global ocean heat content observations show considerable interannual and inter-decadal variability superimposed on the longer-term trend. Relative to 1961 to 2003, the period 1993 to 2003 has high rates of warming but since 2003 there has been some cooling.

Observed climate variability and change

Abstract: Chapter 2 emphasises change against a background of variability. The certainty of conclusions that can be drawn about climate from observations depends critically on the availability of accurate, complete and consistent series of observations. For many variables important in documenting, detecting, and attributing climate change, data are still not good enough for really firm conclusions to be reached. This especially applies to global trends in variables that have large regional variations, such as pre-

Recent intensification of wind-driven circulation in the Pacific and the ongoing warming hiatus

Abstract: The slowdown in global average surface warming has recently been linked to sea surface cooling in the eastern Pacific Ocean. This work shows that strengthening trade winds caused a reduction in the 2012 global average surface air temperature of 0.1–0.2 °C. This may account for much of the warming hiatus and is a result of increased subsurface ocean heat uptake.