Thomas Hintermaier

Bio: Thomas Hintermaier is an academic researcher from University of Bonn. The author has contributed to research in topics: Incomplete markets & Debt. The author has an hindex of 9, co-authored 28 publications receiving 308 citations. Previous affiliations of Thomas Hintermaier include IHS Inc..

Code and data files for "On the Evolution of the US Consumer Wealth Distribution"

Abstract: We use all available waves of the Survey of Consumer Finances to document the evolution of the wealth distribution in the US since the 1980s. We then rely on the shape of this distribution to estimate a life-cycle incomplete markets model. We find that considering a wide range of net-worth percentiles delivers very precise estimates of the structural parameters, impatience and risk aversion. The estimated model predicts some of the observed changes of the net-worth distribution, in particular for young consumers between ages 26 and 35.

Advanced Macroeconomics I

Abstract: Objective. The objective of the course is to introduce the modeling of heterogeneous agents economies, learn about economies with incomplete markets, and search and matching frictions. In the first part of the course, the student will familiarize with the modern quantitative techniques used in macroeconomics, and will be exposed to important research questions in macroeconomics. In addition, the course will review some of the numerical methods used to solve heterogeneous agents economies with incomplete markets.

Credit Crises, Precautionary Savings, and the Liquidity Trap

Abstract: We use a model a la Bewly-Huggett-Ayagari to explore the eects of a credit crunch on consumer spending. Households borrow and lend to smooth idiosyncratic income shocks facing an exogenous borrowing constraint. We look at the economy response after an unexpected permananent tightening of this constraint. The interest rate drops sharply in the short run and then adjusts to a lower steady state level. This is due to the fact that after the shock a large fraction of agents is far below their target holdings of precautionary savings and this generates a large temporary positive shock to net lending. We then look at the eects on output. Here two opposing forces are present, as households can deleverage in two ways: by consuming less and by working more. We show that under a reasonable parametrization the eect on consumer spending dominates and precautionary behavior generates a recession. If we add nominal rigidities two things happen: (i) supply-side responses are muted, and (ii) there is a lower bound on the interest rate adjustment. These two elements tend to amplify the recession caused by the credit tightening.

The Fragile Middle Class: Americans in Debt

Abstract: The Fragile Middle Class: Americans in Debt. By Teresa A. Sullivan, Elizabeth Warren and Jay Lawrence Westbrook. New Haven, Conn.: Yale University Press, 2000. xviii + 380 pp. $35.00 (cloth); $17.95 (paper). In the business section of the Boston Globe on August 25, 2001, a first page headline dramatically suggested that "Bankruptcy filings on track to beat '98 record." The article went on to report that after two years of slight declines the number of Americans declaring bankruptcy rose almost 25% between April and June of this year, putting 2001 on track to break the record set in 1998 of 1.4 million bankruptcy filings. This rather shocking prediction would not come as a surprise to the authors of The Fragile Middle Class who have spent the last twenty years carefully tracing and studying the progress of bankruptcy filings and analyzing what they have to say about the economic viability and vulnerability of the American middle class. This team of authors brings to this task an interesting array of professional skills. Teresa Sullivan is Vice President and Graduate Dean and Professor of Sociology at the University of Texas in Austin. Elizabeth Warren is Professor of Law at Harvard and Jay Westbrook is Chair of Business Law at the University of Texas School of Law. The authors received an award from the American Bar Association for their previous work on the subject: As We Forgive Our Debtors: Bankruptcy and Consumer Credit in America (Oxford University Press, 1989). Their present work represents an ongoing analysis of data gathered from expanded sources. I am not an economist, demographer, or statistician, but one can immediately recognize and appreciate the exhaustive scholarly care that permeates every aspect of their methodology and presentation. (see especially Appendix 1, Data Used in This Study). They examine the data from every imaginable angle and their findings are always meticulously based on the statistical evidence. The first portion of the book presents the depth and breadth of the problem, which they see not only as a serious economic problem but as a "barometer of social change" (pp. 14, 15). Having outlined the basic issues, they turn to the work of deconstruction, attacking the prevalent notion of what type of person ends up in bankruptcy court. I have to admit that I had fallen prey to certain cultural stereotypes, believing that most folk who find themselves applying for bankruptcy come from the ranks of either the fiscally irresponsible, who thoughtlessly expose themselves to unnecessary financial risks, or the ethically challenged, who use the system to skillfully evade creditors while protecting their ill-gotten assets. The portrait of the petitioner for bankruptcy that emerges from this study is one that shatters all such prejudices, presenting us with case studies of men and women who could easily stand on both sides of the altar rail in countless Episcopal churches. The issues, values, and problems that frame these stories are ones that we encounter daily in our own lives as well as those of our parishioners, students, and colleagues. …

Individual determinants of self-employment entry: what do we really know?

Abstract: The analysis of the decision to enter into self-employment is a hot topic in economic literature. Among the elements that most directly influence this decision, individual factors are central. This study produces a comprehensive survey of the impact of these factors, covering both the theoretical arguments and the main conclusions emerging from the empirical studies. We analyze twelve critical determinant factors of the entry into self-employment grouped into seven categories: (i) basic individual characteristics (gender, age, and marital status and children); (ii) family background (parents and spouse); (iii) personality characteristics (risk attitude and other psychological traits); (iv) human capital (education and experience); (v) health condition; (vi) nationality and ethnicity; and (vii) access to financial resources. While for some of the factors solid conclusions can be found, for others additional research is still needed in order to shed further light on their influence.