Showing papers by "Thomas L. Saaty published in 1977"

A theory of analytical hierarchies applied to political candidacy

Abstract: A theory of hierarchies is applied to structure complex decision problems about groups, organizations, societies or supranational systems in three steps. The problem is decomposed into a number of strata, each with several elements which may be people, variables, policies, and so on. We next analyze judgments about the interactions among elements in each stratum with respect to their impact upon elements of the immediately higher stratum of the hierarchy. A theorem on hierarchical structure permits us to recompose judgments made at each stratum to arrive at an overall preference ordering, policy choice, or solution to the decision problem. A simple, three-strata hierarchy pertaining to the choice of the most qualified candidate for the Democractic Party's Presidential nomination illustrates the theory at the level of a societal system.

The Sudan Transport Study

Abstract: The Sudan, population 18.2 million, in area the largest country in Africa is traversed by the White and Blue Niles meeting at Khartoum and blessed with rain. It has the potential to be a breedbasket for Africa and the Middle East. Of an estimated 200 million agricultural acres, only 17 million are now cultivated---4 million irrigated. Essential expansion is needed of an existing sparse and far-flung transport system to develop agricultural areas and bring food to population centers and export outlets. The ADAR Corporation developed an adaptive matter transport plan under direction of the author, based on Wharton econometric models of the economy under four scenarios: the Reference Projection, Agriculture for Export, Balanced Regional Growth, and Arab African Interface. Using an emerging operations research theory of hierarchies and priorities, the scenarios were combined to generate a Composite Scenario. UN Food and Agriculturists estimated Sudan's supply and demand under Composite Scenario assumptions with 4.3%, 6%, and 7.3% GNP rates. Air, road, rail, river, and port transport projects 103 in all were identified and prioritized, satisfying economic, social and political constraints. Investment is currently under way along the lines suggested by the plan, with nearly $6 billion committed for transport and agricultural projects by several agencies including the Kuwait Fund, the Arab Fund, the World Bank, the Saudi Government, and the newly formed Arab Authority for Development and Agricultural Investment, a group of Arab investing countries.

The forward and backward processes of conflict analysis

Abstract: In this study, the forward process of planning is applied to conflict resolution, by structuring a conflict according to the levels of a conceptual hierarchy. The parties to the conflict form the first level, their objectives are at the second level, and possible solutions are at the third and final level. The elements at each level are weighted according to their relative importance by using the principal eigenvectors of a series of pairwise comparison matrices, and a weighting of the possible solutions is obtained. This forward process answers the question: given the present actors and their objectives, capabilities and policies, which outcome is the most likely to emerge? This technique is applied to a societal system, analyzing conflict in Northern Ireland. It is shown that the outcome which would in greatest measure satisfy the needs of all parties is one which gives legislative independence to Northern Ireland. This method of conflict resolution does not require long or involved calculations, and a means of further shortening the calculations is given. Unimportant branches of the hierarchy may be truncated. The use of hierarchies and the eigenvector method provides an efficient method for the evaluation of possible solutions of a conflict and provides valuable insights into the objectives of the parties and the way in which possible political structures might satisfy these objectives. This is a powerful technique to be added to the methods for conflict resolution.

Stability analysis of the forward-backward process: Northern Ireland case study

Abstract: In this study, the forward and backward processes of planning are applied to conflict resolution in a way similar to that in which the forward process was applied in a previous paper by the authors (Alexander & Saaty, 1977). By repeated analysis of the policies of the parties to the conflict and possible reactions to these policies, an iterative process is established by which the stability of an outcome may be measured. It is shown that the possible outcomes of a conflict may be characterized by a set of state variables covering political, economic, social and legal factors. The composite outcome, found by use of the method, also may be described by weighting the values of the state variables so that a full description of the most probable and stable outcome is obtained. These techniques are applied to a societal system to provide a further analysis of the conflict in Northern Ireland. It is shown that legislative independence, the outcome obtained in the previous paper, is stable and cannot be upset by any of the parties to the conflict. The use of these techniques provides efficient methods for analyzing conflict and gives valuable insights into the behavior of the parties.