Showing papers by "Thomas L. Saaty published in 2012"

Models, Methods, Concepts & Applications of the Analytic Hierarchy Process

Abstract: 1. How to Make a Decision. 2. The Seven Pillars of the AHP. 3. Architectural Design. 4. Designing a Mousetrap. 5. Designing the Best Catamaran. 6. The Selection of a Bridge. 7. Measuring Dependence Between Activities: Input Output Application to the Sudan. 8. Technological Choice in Less Developed Countries. 9. Market Attractiveness of Developing Countries. 10. An AHP Based Approach to the Design and Evaluation of a Marketing Driven Business and Corporate Strategy. 11. New Product Pricing Strategy. 12. Incorporating Expert Judgment in Economic Forecasts - the Case of the U.S. Economy in 1992. 13. A New Macroeconomic Forecasting and Policy Evaluation Method. 14. Forecasting the Future of the Soviet Union. 15. Abortion and the States: How Will the Supreme Court Rule on the Upcoming Pennsylvania Abortion Issue. 16. The Benefits and Costs of Authorizing Riverboat Gambling. 17. The Case of the Spotted Owl vs. the Logging Industry. 18. Selection of Recycling Goal Most Likely to Succeed. 19. To Drill or Not to Drill: A Synthesis of Expert Judgments. 20. Modeling the Graduate Business School Admissions Process. 21. Infertility Decision Making. 22. The Decision by the US Congress on China's Trade Status: A Multicriteria Analysis. 23. Deciding Between Angioplasty and Coronary Artery Bypass Surgery. Index.

How to Make A Decision

Abstract: ieρa aρχή is the Greek word for hierarchy meaning holy origin or holy rule1. It is the ordering of parts or elements of a whole from the highest to the lowest. A hierarchy is the principle of control that secures the effective functioning of the organization2.

The possibility of group choice: pairwise comparisons and merging functions

Abstract: Preferences in Arrow’s conditions are ordinal. Here we show that when intensity of preference represented by reciprocal pairwise comparisons is considered, it is always possible to construct an Arrowian social welfare function using a two-stage social choice process. In stage 1, the individual pairwise relations are mapped into a social pairwise relation. In stage 2, the social pairwise relation is used to generate a cardinal ranking and this ranking is then used to select a particular member of the choice set.

The Seven Pillars of the Analytic Hierarchy Process

Abstract: The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) provides the objective mathematics to process the inescapably subjective and personal preferences of an individual or a group in making a decision. With the AHP and its generalization, the Analytic Network Process (ANP), one constructs hierarchies or feedback networks, then makes judgments or performs measurements on pairs of elements with respect to a controlling element to derive ratio scales that are then synthesized throughout the structure to select the best alternative.

Global awareness, future city design and decision making

Abstract: Our world has been changing at an exponential rate. As a result of this rapid growth, we will be forced to make changes in not only the way we live in the environment but also in the environment itself such as designing the cities of the future to be in greater harmony with the increasing population and growing complexity. The paper contains both reflections on global awareness and comprehensive criteria and their priorities for choosing the most desirable city.

A New Approach To The Middle East Conflict: The Analytic Hierarchy Process: A NEW APPROACH TO THE MIDDLE EAST CONFLICT

Abstract: In most long-lasting conflicts, each party’s grievances increase while the concessions they are willing to make decline in number, quality, and perceived value. Both parties lose sight of what they are willing to settle for, generally exaggerate their own needs, and minimize the needs of the other side over time. But, it is precisely the matter of trading that needs to be made more concrete and of higher priority for both sides, if a meaningful resolution is to be found. Without a formal way of trading off the concessions and packages of concessions, both sides are likely to suspect that they are getting the short end of the bargain. All of this requires going beyond verbal descriptions of the concessions to more broadly include their economic, social, geographic, humanitarian and historical worth. It is critical that all of this needs to be translated into priorities derived in terms of the different values and beliefs of the parties. The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) provides a way to perform such an assessment with the participation of negotiators for the parties. It is a positive approach that makes it possible to reason and express feelings and judgments with numerical intensities to derive priorities. With the assistance of panels of Israeli participants and Palestinian participants brought together in 2009 and 2010, AHP was applied for the first time to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. AHP makes it possible to evaluate moderate and extreme viewpoints and determine their effect on the trading of concessions.

An Analytic Hierarchy Process Based Approach to the Design and Evaluation of a Marketing Driven Business and Corporate Strategy

Abstract: The dramatic changes in the business environment, as highlighted in Table 11.1, suggest that the old and proven ways of doing business may not suffice in assuring survival and growth in the 1990s and beyond. Heightened environmental uncertainty and complexity calls for increased attention to creativity in generating strategic directions for the firm, rigor in evaluating the strategic options on multiple and independent objectives, and vision and focus to assure effective utilization of resources. Most managers could greatly benefit from a framework and methodology which would allow them to accomplish these tasks while at the same time assuring that the strategy is driven by the critical marketing considerations. The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) provides such a framework and methodology.

Models, Methods, Concepts & Applications of the Analytic Hierarchy Process

Abstract: 1. How to Make a Decision. 2. The Seven Pillars of the AHP. 3. Architectural Design. 4. Designing a Mousetrap. 5. Designing the Best Catamaran. 6. The Selection of a Bridge. 7. Measuring Dependence Between Activities: Input Output Application to the Sudan. 8. Technological Choice in Less Developed Countries. 9. Market Attractiveness of Developing Countries. 10. An AHP Based Approach to the Design and Evaluation of a Marketing Driven Business and Corporate Strategy. 11. New Product Pricing Strategy. 12. Incorporating Expert Judgment in Economic Forecasts - the Case of the U.S. Economy in 1992. 13. A New Macroeconomic Forecasting and Policy Evaluation Method. 14. Forecasting the Future of the Soviet Union. 15. Abortion and the States: How Will the Supreme Court Rule on the Upcoming Pennsylvania Abortion Issue. 16. The Benefits and Costs of Authorizing Riverboat Gambling. 17. The Case of the Spotted Owl vs. the Logging Industry. 18. Selection of Recycling Goal Most Likely to Succeed. 19. To Drill or Not to Drill: A Synthesis of Expert Judgments. 20. Modeling the Graduate Business School Admissions Process. 21. Infertility Decision Making. 22. The Decision by the US Congress on China's Trade Status: A Multicriteria Analysis. 23. Deciding Between Angioplasty and Coronary Artery Bypass Surgery. Index.

Why is the Principal Eigenvector Necessary

Abstract: In the field of decision-making, the concept of priority is quintessential and how priorities are derived influences the choices one makes. Priorities should be unique and not one of many possibilities, they must also capture the dominance of the order expressed in the judgments of the pairwise comparison matrix.

Incorporating Expert Judgment in Economic Forecasts: The Case of the U.S. Economy in 1992

Abstract: Professional and academic economists employ a variety of techniques and commit significant amounts of time and financial resources for the purpose of producing macroeconomic forecasts. This chapter illustrates the use of the Analytic Hierarchy Process in forecasting. It integrates macroeconomic theory, historical evidence (as reflected, for example, in formal forecasting models) and expert judgment. Importantly, in the context of current efforts to forecast the future course of the U.S. economy, expert judgment facilitates the incorporation of structural changes into such forecasts.

The Selection of a Bridge

Abstract: This chapter illustrates the use of the AHP for selecting the most appropriate bridge design in two different applications. The one recommended in the second application coincides with the decision that was actually made, demonstrating that the exclusion of an important, but hard to perceive actor, can alter the final decision. In this example we learn that decision making is not simply including multiple criteria in the decision, but more importantly the diverse people or groups who influence the outcome because of their own purposes.

Technological Choice in Less Developed Countries

Abstract: It is widely believed that the economic situation of less developed countries (LDCs) can be greatly improved by conscious and judicious application of science and technology to the solution of their many problems. This belief is well supported by evidence attributing the rapid economic growth achieved by industrially advanced countries to the technology factor ([1], [13]). Early economic theorists noted that the level of savings and investment in the LDCs was low. They recommended transfusion of capital to spur investment and capital formation; but beginning with the late fifties the emphasis shifted to transfusion of technology rather than capital. However, the collective experience of the LDCs with imported technology over the past three decades has been far from encouraging, as is apparent from the growing discontent voiced by the “Group of 77.”

Ethics in International Business

Abstract: Ethics is the science of judging specifically human ends and the relationship of means to those ends. It is essentially the art of controlling means so that they will serve specifically human ends. Business ethics is concerned primarily with the relationship of business goals and techniques to specifically human ends. It studies the impact of acts on the good of the individual, the firm, the business community, and society as a whole. While it does not concentrate on the obligations which a person has as a private individual and a citizen, these enter in since the business person is all three of these people in one. This means that business ethics studies the special obligations which a person and a citizen accepts when he or she becomes a part of the business world.

The analytic hierarchy process applied to complexity

Abstract: Even in science, there is always the human element of using our own assumptions in logic, our feelings, our values and numerous criteria we must deal with. In addition, we often have to include the measurements of tangibles that always need agreed upon subjective judgement to interpret what exactly they mean. The understanding and judgements of other people must inevitably be considered and people use language and create Babel of incoherent possibilities. This paper deals with the various aspects of how to make it possible to overcome the problems of using verbal logic, combining different scale measurements of tangibles and conflicts in group decision-making to make good choices scientifically in the face of complexity and illustrates it with the examples.

Nina's decision: how to make better decisions and resolve conflicts- an essay for the layman

Abstract: Decision making is a central activity of all people, usually done so automatically that we do not even realize that we are doing it every moment of every day of every year for all our lives. This silent and inarticulate approach worked well when humanity was fragmented and individuals and groups of people didn’t have to think of others very much. Today however, the world has become expanded and interdependent and many of its resources are becoming scarce and valuable, including water, land, air, vegetation and minerals. Now we have to consciously work together to choose important courses of action, and we have to justify these actions not only to ourselves but also to others, so we can live in harmony and with minimum conflict.http://dx.doi.org/10.13033/ijahp.v4i1.139

New Product Pricing Strategy

Abstract: This chapter presents the development and application of a model for effective decision making in establishing strategies for the pricing of new products. The model developed evaluates all important criteria that need to be considered for the successful implementation of new products in the market. The formulation of the model was tailored for a specific new software product with unique marketing considerations in a well-defined, segmented market. The process used can easily be extended to include other products, provided that model changes and other appropriate parameters realistically describe the problem being analyzed. Such information needs to be established on a case by case basis by the user, for proper validation of the model.

Market Attractiveness of Developing Countries

Abstract: Companies operating in international markets need to evaluate the potential market attractiveness of developing countries with which they may want to do business. These companies have access to substantial amounts of information from specialized sources and from statistical data supplied by international institutions. Such vast and diverse information is rarely used in a systematic way in the management decision process. When it is used, the entire process is most often inadequately formalized. The available information generally deals with economic factors, while in the present international arena, judgment about politics must also be taken into account. This chapter illustrates the applicability and advantages of the Analytic Hierarchy Process to this decision problem, and uses it to create maps of joint economic progress and political stability in a number of countries for two time periods 1990–1991 and 1995–1997.

Abortion and the States: How will the Supreme Court Rule on the Upcoming Pennsylvania Abortion Issue?

Abstract: In the Summer of 1992 the Supreme Court of the United States was supposed to rule on a controversial Pennsylvania statute [13] restricting the rights of women in obtaining an abortion. Included in this statute are provisions requiring that doctors provide women with state-prescribed information about pregnancy and abortion, that the procedure be delayed 24 hours after the recitation and that husbands be notified prior to the procedure. The lower court upheld the first two provisions but declared unconstitutional the husband notification requirement.

A New Macroeconomic Forecasting and Policy Evaluation Method

Abstract: The economy is often faced with a turn that is not to our liking, and we sometimes think it ought to be controllable by macroeconomic policy. While the spectrum of policies ranges from Keynesian “fine tuning” to using monetarist “rules,” every action (or inaction) of the government is a policy. Because of this it is important that government policy makers be guided by appropriate empirical models. Unfortunately, there is considerable variation in the large numbers of econometric models that have been developed thus far. Moreover, there are persistent problems, both technical and theoretical, with these models.

Designing a Mousetrap

Abstract: This chapter illustrates the sequential use of hierarchies in the selection, design and marketing of a mouse trap The project described in this chapter is not so much about building a better mousetrap as it is about a person’s hope to reach a higher state by engulfing oneself in the project Not a higher state in the classical sense that is indicative of a great mind expanding, but a state that helps a person to grow through doing, always reminding one that there are numerous ways to see a problem By reminding the student to be open and sensitive to new ideas and new creative processes, the professor can foster positive growth Emphasizing that you never reach a state where you are all that there is, and your ways are the best, can lead to a healthy respect for continued growth buttressed by a positive attitude, and a striving for a more fulfilling life

To Drill or Not to Drill: A Synthesis of Expert Judgments

Abstract: Petroleum exploration is a costly venture which always involves a great deal of uncertainties and unknown factors. A decision to drill could result in a giant discovery, a modest discovery, or a dry hole. The factors influencing drilling decisions could be of geologic, economic and personal nature. When making a decision based on geologic factors alone, geologists and geophysicists will try to find answers to the following questions [2].

Neural synthesis of firing decisions in the brain

Abstract: The brain generally miniaturizes its perceptions into what may be regarded as a model of what happens outside. We experience the world according to the capacity of our nervous system to register the stimuli we receive. In order to understand and control the environment there needs to be proportionality between the measurements represented in the miniaturized model that arises from the firings of our neurons, and the actual measurements in the real world. Thus our response to stimuli must satisfy the fundamental functional equation F(ax) = bF(x). In other words, our interpretation of a stimulus as registered by the firing of our neurons is proportional to what it would be if it were not filtered through the brain. This equation is the homogeneous part of the inhomogeneous equation F(ax) – bF(x) = G(x) with the forcing function G(x). What interests us here is the mode of operation of the (firing) system that needs to always satisfy the homogeneous part.

Designing the Best Catamaran

Abstract: This chapter illustrates use of the Analytic Hierarchy Process in the selection and design of a sailboat. How does one bring together one’s ideas when designing a versatile sailing machine? Imagination plays an important role but is full of disconnected thoughts. The AHP was used to first choose the overall sailboat design, and then to select some fundamental hydrodynamic features of the newly designed boat.

Measuring Dependence Between Activities: Input-Output Application to the Sudan

Abstract: In this chapter we illustrate how to deal with dependence among the elements of the same level of a hierarchy (inner dependence) with an application we made in the design of the Transportation System for the Sudan (see [2]). The outcome of this analysis was an input-output table which parallels the work of econometricians. This application was done a few years after the Sudan Transport Study was finished.

Legalization of Euthanasia

Abstract: The Oxford English Dictionary (2nd edition, 1989; online version June 2011) provides the following definitions of euthanasia:

Infertility Decision Making

Abstract: Infertility is perceived as a major crisis in life. There are strong religious, cultural and societal pressures to have children. The most commonly accepted definition of infertility is the continued inability of a couple to conceive after a year. The high level of interest in the problems associated with infertility has led to the rapid development of medical technology in this area. It is one of the few specialty fields that have given rise to many emotional, ethical and legal considerations.