Showing papers by "Thomas L. Saaty published in 2013"

Decision Making with the Analytic Network Process: Economic, Political, Social and Technological Applications with Benefits, Opportunities, Costs and Risks

Abstract: The Analytic Network Process.- Forecasting the Resurgence of the U.S. Economy in 2001: An Expert Judgement Approach.- An Analytic Network Process Model for Financial-Crisis Forecasting.- Outsourcing a Firm's Application Development Group.- ANWR: Artic National Wildlife Refuge, an ANP Validation Example.- The Ford Explorer Case.- Synthesis of Complex Criteria Decision Making: A Case Towards a Consensus Agreement for a Middle East Conflict Resolution.- U.S. Energy Security.- Stabilizing Social Security for the Long-Term.- When Shall Poland Enter the Euro Zone?.- The Conflict between China and Taiwan.- U.S. Response to North Korean Nuclear Threat.- Criteria for Evaluating Group Decision-Making Methods.- An Innovative Orders-of-Magnitude Approach to AHP-Based Multicriteria Decision Making: Prioritizing Divergent Intangible Humane Acts.- Sensitivity Analysis in the Analytic Hierarchy Process.

Decision making with the analytic network process

Abstract: Decision making with the analytic network process , Decision making with the analytic network process , کتابخانه دیجیتال جندی شاپور اهواز

The Modern Science of Multicriteria Decision Making and Its Practical Applications: The AHP/ANP Approach

Abstract: This paper presents a summary of the discrete mathematical part of my work, the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and its generalization to dependence and feedback, the Analytic Network Process (ANP), for measuring tangible and intangible factors, particularly as applied to decision making. The factors of the decision are arranged in hierarchical or network structures and judgments are then made by the decision maker, or by an expert, about the dominant element for each pair with respect to a common property. From simple judgments on two elements at a time with respect to a common property, priority vectors are obtained that are combined throughout the structure to give the best outcome for a decision. The judgments may be inconsistent, and there is a mathematical way to measure inconsistency so that the outlying judgments may be revised by the decision maker in an acceptable way or a decision may be delayed until more consistent information is obtained. In practical applications using either hierarchical ...

On the measurement of intengibles. a principal Eigenvector approach to relative measurement derived from paired comparisons

Abstract: Introduction Nearly all of us have been brought up to believe that clear-headed logical thinking is our only sure way to face and solve problems. But experience suggests that logical thinking is not natural to us. Indeed, we have to practice, and for a long time, before we can do it well. Since complex problems usually have many related factors, traditional logical thinking leads to sequences of ideas so tangled that the best solution cannot be easily discerned. For a very long time people believed and argued strongly that it is impossible to express the intensity of human feelings with numbers. The epitome of such a belief was expressed by A. F. MacKay who writes [12] that pursuing the cardinal approaches is like chasing what cannot be caught. It was also expressed by Davis and Hersh [5]: “If you are more of a human being, you will be aware there are such things as emotions, beliefs, attitudes, dreams, intentions, jealousy, envy, yearning, regret, longing, anger, compassion and many others. These things—the inner world of human life— can never be mathematized.” In their book [11]

Criteria for Evaluating Group Decision-Making Methods

Abstract: In this chapter we are concerned with the development of criteria for evaluating different methods of group decision-making that range from the strictly technical, to the psychophysical and social, and finally, to the logical and scientific. Our purpose is to identify similarities and differences with the aim of showing from such wide consideration which method is more attractive, and is likely to gain greater attention both in academia and in practice.

Sensitivity Analysis in the Analytic Hierarchy Process

Abstract: In model building using the AHP, sensitivity analysis is a crucial step in determining if the solution is implementable and robust. For example, Zhong and Gu (2010) developed an AHP model to assess black-start schemes for fast restoration of a power system.

The analytic hierarchy process without the theory of oskar perron

Abstract: It is known and has been mathematically proven that the principal eigenvector is necessary for deriving priorities from judgments in the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). According to the work of Oskar Perron, the principal eigenvector can be obtained as the limiting power of a positive matrix. In this paper we show that the principal eigenvector does not need the theory of Perron for its existence based on the fact that the principal eigenvalue and corresponding principal eigenvector are transparently obtained for a consistent matrix. By perturbation theory the result is obtained for a near consistent matrix. http://dx.doi.org/10.13033/ijahp.v5i2.191

Principles for implementing a potential solution to the Middle East Conflict

Abstract: Introduction The purpose of this paper is to show how the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) applies mathematics to deal with the most complex problems of the world in a comprehensive and holistic way—in this case the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. This process has been helpful in finding solutions to some of the world’s most complex struggles, including those in South Africa and Northern Ireland. But it has not been used extensively to address the Middle East conflict because of the unique aspects of that struggle. Five years ago, we began preliminary work to organize the excruciatingly difficult issues associated with that six-decades-old confrontation. We began by testing how this retributive conflict (one in which both sides profess to desiring a solution but are equally committed to inflicting pain on the other party) could be profitably addressed by the AHP. This paper should serve as an illustration of how mathematics can help quantify the value of tradeoffs through relative scales (priorities derived from pairwise comparison judgments). The reader can find the mathematical foundations of the theory in an article recently published by the first author in these Notices in February 2013 [3]; see also [4]. Figure 1 shows a map of Israel and Palestine as the borders currently

An Innovative Orders-of-Magnitude Approach to AHP-Based Multicriteria Decision Making: Prioritizing Divergent Intangible Humane Acts

Abstract: The past we inherit; the future we create, the saying goes. To create a credible future that is founded on our global values and priorities we need to learn how to deal with the immense variety of factors and with the expanse of the many dimensions of this variety.

U. S. Response to North Korean Nuclear Threat

Abstract: As more and more countries around the world begin to develop nuclear weapons, the threat of a nuclear attack against the United States increases. In addition to the threat directly posed by these countries, there is also the threat that nuclear weapons could be sold or given to other hostile countries or to terrorists. North Korea is one country whose development of nuclear weapons represents a threat to the United States, somewhat aggravated by the confrontational attitude of its leader, Kim Jong-un.

Outsourcing a Firm’s Application Development Group

Abstract: Outsourcing Information Technology (IT) functions is a growing trend in businesses looking for ways to reduce cost and hasten time-to-market of customer-facing and internal applications. The strategy of outsourcing functions, tasks, and activities to another company has existed for decades. During periods of recession, U.S. corporations cut costs by moving jobs that are of a repetitive nature to lower-cost regions, typically “offshore” or in non-U.S. countries. For example, manufacturing companies have been leveraging offshore resources since the 1950s, while the off-shoring of IT started about 10–15 years ago with the movement of legacy system maintenance tasks to Ireland and Canada.

Los conflictos y su resolución

Abstract: El conflicto es un estado natural de la existencia humana. Aun cuando los conflictos parecen desagradables, nunca van a desaparecer del todo debido a los distintos condicionamientos, gustos y disgustos y pertenencias de la gente. Los humanos, criaturas capaces de razonar, pueden aprender a manejar los conflictos en forma sis- temica y racional, al igual que aprenden a vivir en una sociedad civilizada con sus normas de buen comporta-miento y cortesia. La mayor dificultad en la resolucion de conflictos esta representada en la forma de negociar los intangibles: ?cuanto de esto frente a cuanto de aquello?, cuando esto y aquello carecen de mediciones. El “proceso jerarquico analitico” es un criterio muy utilizado en la toma de decisiones, en planeamiento y, en menor medida, en la solucion de conflictos debido a la naturaleza emocional del problema. Se ha aplicado a numerosos conflictos y en realidad a pocos en la practica. Este breve comentario muestra un esbozo de ideas sobre la resolucion de conflictos con el AHP.

Stabilizing Social Security for the Long-Term

Abstract: President Roosevelt founded Social Security in 1935. In 1937, the Federal Insurance Contribution Act (FICA) was signed and mandated that workers contribute 2 % of wages.

U. S. Energy Security

Abstract: There has been an ongoing debate in the United States ever since the Report of the National Energy Policy Development Group was submitted for consideration by Vice President Dick Cheney to President George W. Bush on May 16, 2001. The statements and recommendations of the report have been so controversial since its public release that senate and house committee meetings have been held along with requests that the Vice President come before Congress to explain what was discussed behind closed doors.

When Shall Poland Enter the Euro Zone

Abstract: January 1, 2002 brought the European Union into life when 300 million EU inhabitants in Austria, Belgium, Finland, France, Greece, Spain, Holland, Ireland, Luxembourg, Germany, Portugal and Italy received a new currency—the Euro. On May 1st 2004, Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, Malta, Poland, the Slovak Republic, Slovenia and Hungary joined the European Union, and on January 1, 2007 Bulgaria and Romania committed themselves to enter the monetary union as soon as possible, after they fulfill convergence criteria established by the Maastricht Treaty of February 7, 1992 by which all EU member countries shall, as the end result, enter the economic and currency union. Entering countries had or have to accept the Treaty without any conditions. Only Great Britain and Denmark had not entered the euro zone, but they have an “opt-out” clause by which they can, but do not have to, enter, whereas Sweden did not manage to get social acceptance on giving up their “crown” and accepting the euro in the 2003 referendum, without defining the date of its entry into the currency union. Bulgaria and Romania have still to convert to the euro currency despite entering the European Union January 1, 2007.