Thomas L. Saaty

Bio: Thomas L. Saaty is an academic researcher from University of Pittsburgh. The author has contributed to research in topics: Analytic hierarchy process & Analytic network process. The author has an hindex of 92, co-authored 375 publications receiving 95026 citations. Previous affiliations of Thomas L. Saaty include College of Business Administration & Politécnico Grancolombiano.

The Sudan Transport Study

Abstract: The Sudan, population 18.2 million, in area the largest country in Africa is traversed by the White and Blue Niles meeting at Khartoum and blessed with rain. It has the potential to be a breedbasket for Africa and the Middle East. Of an estimated 200 million agricultural acres, only 17 million are now cultivated---4 million irrigated. Essential expansion is needed of an existing sparse and far-flung transport system to develop agricultural areas and bring food to population centers and export outlets. The ADAR Corporation developed an adaptive matter transport plan under direction of the author, based on Wharton econometric models of the economy under four scenarios: the Reference Projection, Agriculture for Export, Balanced Regional Growth, and Arab African Interface. Using an emerging operations research theory of hierarchies and priorities, the scenarios were combined to generate a Composite Scenario. UN Food and Agriculturists estimated Sudan's supply and demand under Composite Scenario assumptions with 4.3%, 6%, and 7.3% GNP rates. Air, road, rail, river, and port transport projects 103 in all were identified and prioritized, satisfying economic, social and political constraints. Investment is currently under way along the lines suggested by the plan, with nearly $6 billion committed for transport and agricultural projects by several agencies including the Kuwait Fund, the Arab Fund, the World Bank, the Saudi Government, and the newly formed Arab Authority for Development and Agricultural Investment, a group of Arab investing countries.

There is no mathematical validity for using fuzzy number crunching in the analytic hierarchy process

Abstract: Fuzzy logic has difficulty producing valid answers in decision-making. Absent are theorems to prove that it works to produce results already known that are being estimated with judgments by transforming such judgments numerically. The numerical representation of judgments in the AHP is already fuzzy. Making fuzzy judgments more fuzzy does not lead to a better more valid outcome and it often leads to a worse one. The compatibility index of the AHP is used to illustrate how the answers obtained by fuzzifying AHP judgments do not produce better results than direct derivation of the principal eigenvector. Other authors who did experiments with given data in decision making quoted in the conclusions section of the paper, have observed that fuzzy sets gives the poorest answers among all methods used to derive best decisions.

The Analytic Hierarchy Process: Decision Making in Complex Environments

Abstract: The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is a problem solving framework. It is a systematic procedure for representing the elements of any problem. It organizes the basic rationality by breaking down a problem into its smaller constituent parts and then calls for only simple pairwise comparison judgments, to develop priorities in each hierarchy.

The Analytic Hierarchy Process

Abstract: This chapter provides an overview of Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), which is a systematic procedure for representing the elements of any problem hierarchically. It organizes the basic rationality by breaking down a problem into its smaller constituent parts and then guides decision makers through a series of pair-wise comparison judgments to express the relative strength or intensity of impact of the elements in the hierarchy. These judgments are then translated to numbers. The AHP includes procedures and principles used to synthesize the many judgments to derive priorities among criteria and subsequently for alternative solutions. It is useful to note that the numbers thus obtained are ratio scale estimates and correspond to so-called hard numbers. Problem solving is a process of setting priorities in steps. One step decides on the most important elements of a problem, another on how best to repair, replace, test, and evaluate the elements, and another on how to implement the solution and measure performance.

Fuzzy Set Theory - and Its Applications

Abstract: Fuzzy Set Theory - And Its Applications, Third Edition is a textbook for courses in fuzzy set theory. It can also be used as an introduction to the subject. The character of a textbook is balanced with the dynamic nature of the research in the field by including many useful references to develop a deeper understanding among interested readers. The book updates the research agenda (which has witnessed profound and startling advances since its inception some 30 years ago) with chapters on possibility theory, fuzzy logic and approximate reasoning, expert systems, fuzzy control, fuzzy data analysis, decision making and fuzzy set models in operations research. All chapters have been updated. Exercises are included.

Principles of Neural Science

Abstract: I have developed "tennis elbow" from lugging this book around the past four weeks, but it is worth the pain, the effort, and the aspirin. It is also worth the (relatively speaking) bargain price. Including appendixes, this book contains 894 pages of text. The entire panorama of the neural sciences is surveyed and examined, and it is comprehensive in its scope, from genomes to social behaviors. The editors explicitly state that the book is designed as "an introductory text for students of biology, behavior, and medicine," but it is hard to imagine any audience, interested in any fragment of neuroscience at any level of sophistication, that would not enjoy this book. The editors have done a masterful job of weaving together the biologic, the behavioral, and the clinical sciences into a single tapestry in which everyone from the molecular biologist to the practicing psychiatrist can find and appreciate his or