Thomas L. Saaty

Bio: Thomas L. Saaty is an academic researcher from University of Pittsburgh. The author has contributed to research in topics: Analytic hierarchy process & Analytic network process. The author has an hindex of 92, co-authored 375 publications receiving 95026 citations. Previous affiliations of Thomas L. Saaty include College of Business Administration & Politécnico Grancolombiano.

Time-Dependent Solution of the Many-Server Poisson Queue

Abstract: In this paper we obtain the Laplace transform of the transient probabilities of the ordered queuing problem, with Poisson inputs, multiple channels, and exponential service times. Explicit expressions are derived for the two-channel case and known equilibrium conditions are shown to hold. The proof proceeds in two stages. The first obtains the Laplace transform of the generating function of the system and the second solves a first order linear partial differential equation in a restricted generating function introduced to determine the Laplace transform of the probability functions appearing in the first generating function. In the two-channel case the solution is decomposed into two components, one of which is immediately related to the well-known solution of the single-channel queue. We also study the problem with different service distributions for the two-channel case and compute the distribution of a busy period for that case.

Forecasting the resurgence of the US economy in 2001: an expert judgment approach

Abstract: This chapter has again demonstrated how the Analytic Network Process can serve as an additional tool for macroeconomic forecasts. In the current instance, we have used the interesting case of the U.S. economy in early 2001, which had begun to experience a slowdown during the latter part of the year 2000 after more than nine years of steady expansion, in order to forecast the time period prior to its recovery. As noted earlier, this approach could be easily adapted for use in forecasts employing formal macroeconometric models (e.g. to make judgments with respect to shifts in intercepts and changes in the values of exogenous variables). By way of validating our forecast, here is what the Wall Street Journal July 18, 2003 wrote about the subject more than two years after: “The National Bureau of Economic Research said the U.S. economic recession that began in March 2001 ended eight months later, not long after the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks. Most economists concluded more than a year ago that the recession ended in late 2001. But yesterday’s declaration by the NBER-a private, nonprofit economic research group that is considered the official arbiter of recession timing-came after a lengthy internal debate over whether there can be an economic recovery if the labor market continues to contract. The bureau’s answer: a decisive yes.”

A Measure of World Influence

Abstract: It is not unusual to think and write about power without adequate definition. Power is such a rich concept that even for special use it would carry more meaning than may be ihtended. Power is closely identified with the ability to do something (Bell et al. 1969). Influence is the capacity to sway others to obtain favorable results in the pursuit of objectives. Influence greatly benefits from the potential use of certain forms of power to achieve ends. Wagner (in Bell et al. 1969) indicates that the difficulty in defining power is related to a lack of agreement in politics as to who has power and how much. Knorr (1973) makes a strong distinction between putative power (the capability to make effective threats) and actualized power (actually achieved influence). Both concepts capture an aspect of reality. Examples of both are easily perceived in military power, economic power, racial power, political power, healing power, purchasing power, etc. Simon (in Bell et al. 1969) sees in his definition of power an asymmetrical relation between influencer and influencee and concludes that, regarding the measurement of power, one should admit many other measures besides cardinal numbers. Dahl (in Bell et al. 1969) observes that “the main problem is not to determine the existence of power but to make comparisons.” This is precisely what we do here. Of some relevance to our presentation are the following observations: It seems clear that these techniques (of psychophysics) will find a place in social-science research . . . . The most important of these limits is that we must be willing to deal with perceptions . . . the researcher who deals with aggregate data will find no hope here . . . if one is willing to assume that a

The Analytic Hierarchy Process

Abstract: This chapter provides an overview of Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), which is a systematic procedure for representing the elements of any problem hierarchically. It organizes the basic rationality by breaking down a problem into its smaller constituent parts and then guides decision makers through a series of pair-wise comparison judgments to express the relative strength or intensity of impact of the elements in the hierarchy. These judgments are then translated to numbers. The AHP includes procedures and principles used to synthesize the many judgments to derive priorities among criteria and subsequently for alternative solutions. It is useful to note that the numbers thus obtained are ratio scale estimates and correspond to so-called hard numbers. Problem solving is a process of setting priorities in steps. One step decides on the most important elements of a problem, another on how best to repair, replace, test, and evaluate the elements, and another on how to implement the solution and measure performance.

Fuzzy Set Theory - and Its Applications

Abstract: Fuzzy Set Theory - And Its Applications, Third Edition is a textbook for courses in fuzzy set theory. It can also be used as an introduction to the subject. The character of a textbook is balanced with the dynamic nature of the research in the field by including many useful references to develop a deeper understanding among interested readers. The book updates the research agenda (which has witnessed profound and startling advances since its inception some 30 years ago) with chapters on possibility theory, fuzzy logic and approximate reasoning, expert systems, fuzzy control, fuzzy data analysis, decision making and fuzzy set models in operations research. All chapters have been updated. Exercises are included.

Principles of Neural Science

Abstract: I have developed "tennis elbow" from lugging this book around the past four weeks, but it is worth the pain, the effort, and the aspirin. It is also worth the (relatively speaking) bargain price. Including appendixes, this book contains 894 pages of text. The entire panorama of the neural sciences is surveyed and examined, and it is comprehensive in its scope, from genomes to social behaviors. The editors explicitly state that the book is designed as "an introductory text for students of biology, behavior, and medicine," but it is hard to imagine any audience, interested in any fragment of neuroscience at any level of sophistication, that would not enjoy this book. The editors have done a masterful job of weaving together the biologic, the behavioral, and the clinical sciences into a single tapestry in which everyone from the molecular biologist to the practicing psychiatrist can find and appreciate his or