Thomas L. Saaty

Bio: Thomas L. Saaty is an academic researcher from University of Pittsburgh. The author has contributed to research in topics: Analytic hierarchy process & Analytic network process. The author has an hindex of 92, co-authored 375 publications receiving 95026 citations. Previous affiliations of Thomas L. Saaty include College of Business Administration & Politécnico Grancolombiano.

Critical Choices for Opec Members and the United States: A Hierarchical Search for Their Desired Future

Abstract: The international oil market is the most complex trade market in the world. The actions taken by one major actor affect the whole world community. The market’s influence not only is felt in the economic affairs of nations but also reaches out to the technical, social, environmental, and political domains, all continually interacting and affecting each other. Some actors who organize and operate this large market belong to the poorest nations; others are multinational corporations; and still others are superpowers whose potential confrontations in the world today include the security of oil sources and oil supplies. The ideologies and politics of the actors are diverse. With such a complex system one cannot possibly make accurate judgments or prescriptions without understanding the interrelationships among the actors and the factors that influence the system. Thus it seems crucial to do long-range planning by scrutinizing the capabilities and behavior of the actors, defining their objectives, investigating their possible future strategies, examining the impact of these strategies on each actor, searching for strategies that could lead to a desired future, and exploring ways that would make such a future attainable. Through this planning we can control the future; we can direct it toward a desired goal and prevent the emergence of disastrous outcomes. Planning would also provide us with the time needed for change and adaptation to a new environment as we proceed toward our desired goal.

Cultural Ranking of Countries Using the Analytic Hierarchy Process Methodology

Abstract: Different countries have different cultures, but it is difficult to say which culture is best directly. This paper mainly established a hierarchy for the ranking of cultures to prioritize and quantify thinking about and comparing different cultures. It does not only pay attention to the different features of cultures but also focuses on manifestations of cultures. There are 9 criteria and 27 subcriteria in our ranking of cultures. To find some leading cultures in the world, we rank the cultures of different counties by using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). After we get the priorities of the subcriteria according to judgment matrix obtained by questionnaires, we create different intensity categories for each subcriterion. In the end, we obtain the top 5 countries: the United States, Denmark, Australia, Norway and Canada. The result may be significant for advocating the spread of the better cultures throughout the world. What do they have to offer that others need to emulate? That is what is considered in this paper.

Forecasting the Future of the Soviet Union

Abstract: In this chapter we report on a study carried out in May of 1990 which uses the AHP to determine the future of the Soviet Union. This question has been of utmost importance to every person alive because of the Soviet Union’s implicit and explicit influence on the future of the world. This work is an attempt to project the outcome of the various forces at work within and outside the Soviet Union that were thought to affect its destiny. Three different scenarios were formulated as possible outcomes. The purpose was not just to predict the future, but to develop a framework where variables involved in this complex problem could be identified, the effect of these variables on shaping the future could be evaluated, and the overall outcomes from these events could be derived. The hope is for identifying some actions to be taken to facilitate the way to peace, to avoid unnecessary violence, and to formulate intelligent and consistent policies.

The Analytic Hierarchy Process

Abstract: This chapter provides an overview of Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), which is a systematic procedure for representing the elements of any problem hierarchically. It organizes the basic rationality by breaking down a problem into its smaller constituent parts and then guides decision makers through a series of pair-wise comparison judgments to express the relative strength or intensity of impact of the elements in the hierarchy. These judgments are then translated to numbers. The AHP includes procedures and principles used to synthesize the many judgments to derive priorities among criteria and subsequently for alternative solutions. It is useful to note that the numbers thus obtained are ratio scale estimates and correspond to so-called hard numbers. Problem solving is a process of setting priorities in steps. One step decides on the most important elements of a problem, another on how best to repair, replace, test, and evaluate the elements, and another on how to implement the solution and measure performance.

Fuzzy Set Theory - and Its Applications

Abstract: Fuzzy Set Theory - And Its Applications, Third Edition is a textbook for courses in fuzzy set theory. It can also be used as an introduction to the subject. The character of a textbook is balanced with the dynamic nature of the research in the field by including many useful references to develop a deeper understanding among interested readers. The book updates the research agenda (which has witnessed profound and startling advances since its inception some 30 years ago) with chapters on possibility theory, fuzzy logic and approximate reasoning, expert systems, fuzzy control, fuzzy data analysis, decision making and fuzzy set models in operations research. All chapters have been updated. Exercises are included.

Principles of Neural Science

Abstract: I have developed "tennis elbow" from lugging this book around the past four weeks, but it is worth the pain, the effort, and the aspirin. It is also worth the (relatively speaking) bargain price. Including appendixes, this book contains 894 pages of text. The entire panorama of the neural sciences is surveyed and examined, and it is comprehensive in its scope, from genomes to social behaviors. The editors explicitly state that the book is designed as "an introductory text for students of biology, behavior, and medicine," but it is hard to imagine any audience, interested in any fragment of neuroscience at any level of sophistication, that would not enjoy this book. The editors have done a masterful job of weaving together the biologic, the behavioral, and the clinical sciences into a single tapestry in which everyone from the molecular biologist to the practicing psychiatrist can find and appreciate his or