Thomas L. Saaty

Bio: Thomas L. Saaty is an academic researcher from University of Pittsburgh. The author has contributed to research in topics: Analytic hierarchy process & Analytic network process. The author has an hindex of 92, co-authored 375 publications receiving 95026 citations. Previous affiliations of Thomas L. Saaty include College of Business Administration & Politécnico Grancolombiano.

New light on the theorem of perron

Abstract: We prove that the principal eigenvector of a positive matrix represents the relative dominance of its rows or ranking of alternatives in a decision represented by the rows of a pairwise comparison matrix.

The Need for Adding Judgment in Bayesian Prediction

Abstract: There are many examples of successful application of the famous Bayes’ theorem to forecast the outcome of causes or influences of events. However, there are also many examples of failures of just using probabilities and statistics without also using judgments in each particular application. This is particularly true in medical diagnoses and in sports. The extension we proposed found a way to calculate probabilities combining logical inference of data and judgment. This research extends the use of Bayes’ theorem by incorporating judgments within the framework of the frequently used decision theory, the analytic network process (ANP) and illustrates its use with an application.

Benefit-Cost Analysis and Resource Allocation

Abstract: This chapter highlights the highly relevant applicability of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to project evaluation and resource allocation. Benefit–cost analysis supplies the underlying principles to guide resource allocation, while the AHP is used to structure the allocation problem and measure the factors consequential to the decision. To measure the relative importance of the components and benefits and costs, sampling of public opinion, employment of expert judgment, and comparison with the consequences of past projects of this kind can be resorted to. Resources, in a general sense, are the means to bring about a change in the state of a system or to direct it toward a desired end. They are usually allocated in different amounts to different projects or proposals according to the perceived worthiness of the alternatives. There are three different types of resource allocation problems: (1) selection of one project to be undertaken with the total resources available, (2) selection of a mix of projects to which available resources will be allocated in equal or unequal portions, and (3) allocation of resources to existing projects according to their remaining (marginal) potential. The application of AHP to structure benefit–cost problems results in two extensions of traditional methods: (1) intangible, noneconomic factors that have so far not been effectively integrated in decision making can be quantified and (2) explicit and informed tradeoffs can be made among multiple selection criteria, including multiple performance objectives and output activities.

Market Attractiveness of Developing Countries

Abstract: Companies operating in international markets need to evaluate the potential market attractiveness of developing countries with which they may want to do business. These companies have access to substantial amounts of information from specialized sources and from statistical data supplied by international institutions. Such vast and diverse information is rarely used in a systematic way in the management decision process. When it is used, the entire process is most often inadequately formalized. The available information generally deals with economic factors, while in the present international arena, judgment about politics must also be taken into account. This chapter illustrates the applicability and advantages of the Analytic Hierarchy Process to this decision problem, and uses it to create maps of joint economic progress and political stability in a number of countries for two time periods 1990–1991 and 1995–1997.

The Analytic Hierarchy Process

Abstract: This chapter provides an overview of Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), which is a systematic procedure for representing the elements of any problem hierarchically. It organizes the basic rationality by breaking down a problem into its smaller constituent parts and then guides decision makers through a series of pair-wise comparison judgments to express the relative strength or intensity of impact of the elements in the hierarchy. These judgments are then translated to numbers. The AHP includes procedures and principles used to synthesize the many judgments to derive priorities among criteria and subsequently for alternative solutions. It is useful to note that the numbers thus obtained are ratio scale estimates and correspond to so-called hard numbers. Problem solving is a process of setting priorities in steps. One step decides on the most important elements of a problem, another on how best to repair, replace, test, and evaluate the elements, and another on how to implement the solution and measure performance.

Fuzzy Set Theory - and Its Applications

Abstract: Fuzzy Set Theory - And Its Applications, Third Edition is a textbook for courses in fuzzy set theory. It can also be used as an introduction to the subject. The character of a textbook is balanced with the dynamic nature of the research in the field by including many useful references to develop a deeper understanding among interested readers. The book updates the research agenda (which has witnessed profound and startling advances since its inception some 30 years ago) with chapters on possibility theory, fuzzy logic and approximate reasoning, expert systems, fuzzy control, fuzzy data analysis, decision making and fuzzy set models in operations research. All chapters have been updated. Exercises are included.

Principles of Neural Science

Abstract: I have developed "tennis elbow" from lugging this book around the past four weeks, but it is worth the pain, the effort, and the aspirin. It is also worth the (relatively speaking) bargain price. Including appendixes, this book contains 894 pages of text. The entire panorama of the neural sciences is surveyed and examined, and it is comprehensive in its scope, from genomes to social behaviors. The editors explicitly state that the book is designed as "an introductory text for students of biology, behavior, and medicine," but it is hard to imagine any audience, interested in any fragment of neuroscience at any level of sophistication, that would not enjoy this book. The editors have done a masterful job of weaving together the biologic, the behavioral, and the clinical sciences into a single tapestry in which everyone from the molecular biologist to the practicing psychiatrist can find and appreciate his or