Tim Lobstein

Bio: Tim Lobstein is an academic researcher from University of Sydney. The author has contributed to research in topics: Overweight & Population. The author has an hindex of 53, co-authored 140 publications receiving 20162 citations. Previous affiliations of Tim Lobstein include University of London & University of Sussex.

Obesity in children and young people: a crisis in public health.

Abstract: Ten per cent of the world’s school-aged children are estimated to be carrying excess body fat (Fig. 1), with an increased risk for developing chronic disease. Of these overweight children, a quarter are obese, with a significant likelihood of some having multiple risk factors for type 2 diabetes, heart disease and a variety of other co-morbidities before or during early adulthood. The prevalence of overweight is dramatically higher in economically developed regions, but is rising significantly in most parts of the world. In many countries the problem of childhood obesity is worsening at a dramatic rate. Surveys during the 1990s show that in Brazil and the USA, an additional 0.5% of the entire child population became overweight each year. In Canada, Australia and parts of Europe the rates were higher, with an additional 1% of all children becoming overweight each year. The burden upon the health services cannot yet be estimated. Although childhood obesity brings a number of additional problems in its train – hyperinsulinaemia, poor glucose tolerance and a raised risk of type 2 diabetes, hypertension, sleep apnoea, social exclusion and depression – the greatest health problems will be seen in the next generation of adults as the present childhood obesity epidemic passes through to adulthood. Greatly increased rates of heart disease, diabetes, certain cancers, gall bladder disease, osteoarthritis, endocrine disorders and other obesityrelated conditions will be found in young adult populations, and their need for medical treatment may last for their remaining life-times. The costs to the health services, the losses to society and the burdens carried by the individuals involved will be great. The present report has been written to focus attention on the issue and to urge policy-makers to consider taking action before it is too late. Specifically, the report:

Worldwide trends in childhood overweight and obesity

Abstract: Objectives. Obesity has become a global epidemic but our understanding of the problem in children is limited due to lack of comparable representative data from different countries, and varying criteria for defining obesity. This paper summarises the available information on recent trends in child overweight and obesity prevalence. Methods. PubMed was searched for data relating to trends over time, in papers published between January 1980 and October 2005. Additional studies identified by citations in retrieved papers and by consultation with experts were included. Data for trends over time were found for school-age populations in 25 countries and for pre-school populations in 42 countries. Using these reports, and data collected for the World Health Organization's Burden of Disease Program, we estimated the global prevalence of overweight and obesity among school-age children for 2006 and likely prevalence levels for 2010. Results. The prevalence of childhood overweight has increased in almost all countri...

Extended international (IOTF) body mass index cut-offs for thinness, overweight and obesity.

Abstract: SummaryBackground The international (International Obesity Task Force; IOTF) body mass index (BMI) cut-offs are widely used to assess the prevalence of child overweight, obesity and thinness. Based on data from six countries fitted by the LMS method, they link BMI values at 18 years (16, 17, 18.5, 25 and 30 kg m−2) to child centiles, which are averaged across the countries. Unlike other BMI references, e.g. the World Health Organization (WHO) standard, these cut-offs cannot be expressed as centiles (e.g. 85th). Methods To address this, we averaged the previously unpublished L, M and S curves for the six countries, and used them to derive new cut-offs defined in terms of the centiles at 18 years corresponding to each BMI value. These new cut-offs were compared with the originals, and with the WHO standard and reference, by measuring their prevalence rates based on US and Chinese data. Results The new cut-offs were virtually identical to the originals, giving prevalence rates differing by <0.2% on average. The discrepancies were smaller for overweight and obesity than for thinness. The international and WHO prevalences were systematically different before/after age 5. Conclusions Defining the international cut-offs in terms of the underlying LMS curves has several benefits. New cut-offs are easy to derive (e.g. BMI 35 for morbid obesity), and they can be expressed as BMI centiles (e.g. boys obesity = 98.9th centile), allowing them to be compared with other BMI references. For WHO, median BMI is relatively low in early life and high at older ages, probably due to its method of construction.

Prevalence of overweight among children in Europe.

Abstract: Estimates of the prevalence of childhood overweight and obesity have been made in several European countries during the last decade. The methods used and the assessment criteria differ from survey to survey. The present paper reports the prevalence data from 21 surveys in Europe using a single, internationally accepted definition of overweight in childhood, allowing direct comparisons to be made. A tendency for a higher prevalence of overweight among children in western and especially southern Europe is shown and some possible reasons for this are discussed.

Development of a WHO growth reference for school-aged children and adolescents

Abstract: Objective To construct growth curves for school-aged children and adolescents that accord with the WHO Child Growth Standards for preschool children and the body mass index (BMI) cut-offs for adults. Methods Data from the 1977 National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS)/WHO growth reference (1–24 years) were merged with data from the under-fives growth standards’ cross-sectional sample (18–71 months) to smooth the transition between the two samples. State-of-the-art statistical methods used to construct the WHO Child Growth Standards (0–5 years), i.e. the Box-Cox power exponential (BCPE) method with appropriate diagnostic tools for the selection of best models, were applied to this combined sample. Findings The merged data sets resulted in a smooth transition at 5 years for height-for-age, weight-for-age and BMI-for-age. For BMI-for-age across all centiles the magnitude of the difference between the two curves at age 5 years is mostly 0.0 kg/m² to 0.1 kg/m². At 19 years, the new BMI values at +1 standard deviation (SD) are 25.4 kg/m² for boys and 25.0 kg/m² for girls. These values are equivalent to the overweight cut-off for adults (> 25.0 kg/m²). Similarly, the +2 SD value (29.7 kg/m² for both sexes) compares closely with the cut-off for obesity (> 30.0 kg/m²). Conclusion The new curves are closely aligned with the WHO Child Growth Standards at 5 years, and the recommended adult cut-offs for overweight and obesity at 19 years. They fill the gap in growth curves and provide an appropriate reference for the 5 to 19 years age group. Bulletin of the World Health Organization 2007;85:660–667.

The European commission

Abstract: 2 1 The innovative transport systems and the CityMobil project 10 1.1 The research questions 10 2 The state of art in the field of automatic transport systems 12 2.1 Case studies and demand studies for innovative transport systems 12 3 The design and implementation of surveys 14 3.1 Definition of experimental design 14 3.2 Questionnaire design and delivery 16 3.3 First analyses on the collected sample 18 4 Calibration of Logit Multionomial demand models 21 4.1 Methodology 21 4.2 Calibration of the “full” model. 22 4.3 Calibration of the “final” model 24 4.4 The demand analysis through the final Multinomial Logit model 25 5 The analysis of interaction between the demand and socioeconomic attributes 31 5.1 Methodology 31 5.2 Application of Mixed Logit models to the demand 31 5.3 Analysis of the interactions between demand and socioeconomic attributes through Mixed Logit models 32 5.4 Mixed Logit model and interaction between age and the demand for the CTS 38 5.5 Demand analysis with Mixed Logit model 39 6 Final analyses and conclusions 45 6.1 Comparison between the results of the analyses 45 6.2 Conclusions 48 6.3 Answers to the research questions and future developments 52

A common variant in the FTO gene is associated with body mass index and predisposes to childhood and adult obesity

Abstract: Obesity is a serious international health problem that increases the risk of several common diseases. The genetic factors predisposing to obesity are poorly understood. A genome-wide search for type 2 diabetes-susceptibility genes identified a common variant in the FTO (fat mass and obesity associated) gene that predisposes to diabetes through an effect on body mass index (BMI). An additive association of the variant with BMI was replicated in 13 cohorts with 38,759 participants. The 16% of adults who are homozygous for the risk allele weighed about 3 kilograms more and had 1.67-fold increased odds of obesity when compared with those not inheriting a risk allele. This association was observed from age 7 years upward and reflects a specific increase in fat mass.