T
Tim Oliver Berg
Researcher at Ifo Institute for Economic Research
Publications - 34
Citations - 424
Tim Oliver Berg is an academic researcher from Ifo Institute for Economic Research. The author has contributed to research in topics: Monetary policy & Bayesian vector autoregression. The author has an hindex of 9, co-authored 34 publications receiving 384 citations. Previous affiliations of Tim Oliver Berg include Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich & Center for Economic Studies.
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Inflation Expectations and Readiness to Spend: Cross-Sectional Evidence
TL;DR: The authors examined the relationship between expected inflation and spending attitudes using the microdata from the Michigan Survey of Consumers and found that the impact of higher inflation expectations on the reported readiness to spend on durables is generally small, outside the zero lower bound, often statistically insignificant, and inside of it typically significantly negative.
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Time Varying Fiscal Multipliers in Germany
TL;DR: In this article, the authors used an expectations-augmented vector autoregressive model with time varying parameters (TVP-VAR) to show that German government multipliers are not stable over time but exhibit a u-shaped pattern.
Posted Content
Point and Density Forecasts for the Euro Area Using Bayesian VARs
Tim Oliver Berg,Steffen Henzel +1 more
TL;DR: In this article, the authors evaluate different variants of the BVAR with respect to their forecast accuracy for euro area real GDP growth and HICP inflation, and find that large BVAARs produce accurate point forecasts but show a poor performance when the entire density is considered, while BVAVAR averaging shows the opposite pattern.
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Point and density forecasts for the euro area using Bayesian VARs
Tim Oliver Berg,Steffen Henzel +1 more
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors evaluate variants of the Bayesian vector autoregressive (BVAR) model with respect to their relative and absolute forecast accuracies using point and density forecasts for euro area HICP inflation and GDP growth.
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Forecast accuracy of a BVAR under alternative specifications of the zero lower bound
TL;DR: In this article, the forecast accuracy of a Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) is affected by introducing the zero lower bound on the federal funds rate, which is not beneficial per se, but it depends on how it is done and which series is forecasted.