scispace - formally typeset
Search or ask a question
Author

Tim R Naish

Other affiliations: GNS Science, University of Oxford, University of Waikato  ...read more
Bio: Tim R Naish is an academic researcher from Victoria University of Wellington. The author has contributed to research in topics: Ice sheet & Antarctic ice sheet. The author has an hindex of 45, co-authored 146 publications receiving 6842 citations. Previous affiliations of Tim R Naish include GNS Science & University of Oxford.


Papers
More filters
Journal ArticleDOI
19 Mar 2009-Nature
TL;DR: A marine glacial record from the upper 600 m of the AND-1B sediment core recovered from beneath the northwest part of the Ross ice shelf is presented and well-dated, ∼40-kyr cyclic variations in ice-sheet extent linked to cycles in insolation influenced by changes in the Earth’s axial tilt (obliquity) during the Pliocene are demonstrated.
Abstract: Thirty years after oxygen isotope records from microfossils deposited in ocean sediments confirmed the hypothesis that variations in the Earth's orbital geometry control the ice ages, fundamental questions remain over the response of the Antarctic ice sheets to orbital cycles. Furthermore, an understanding of the behaviour of the marine-based West Antarctic ice sheet (WAIS) during the 'warmer-than-present' early-Pliocene epoch ( approximately 5-3 Myr ago) is needed to better constrain the possible range of ice-sheet behaviour in the context of future global warming. Here we present a marine glacial record from the upper 600 m of the AND-1B sediment core recovered from beneath the northwest part of the Ross ice shelf by the ANDRILL programme and demonstrate well-dated, approximately 40-kyr cyclic variations in ice-sheet extent linked to cycles in insolation influenced by changes in the Earth's axial tilt (obliquity) during the Pliocene. Our data provide direct evidence for orbitally induced oscillations in the WAIS, which periodically collapsed, resulting in a switch from grounded ice, or ice shelves, to open waters in the Ross embayment when planetary temperatures were up to approximately 3 degrees C warmer than today and atmospheric CO(2) concentration was as high as approximately 400 p.p.m.v. (refs 5, 6). The evidence is consistent with a new ice-sheet/ice-shelf model that simulates fluctuations in Antarctic ice volume of up to +7 m in equivalent sea level associated with the loss of the WAIS and up to +3 m in equivalent sea level from the East Antarctic ice sheet, in response to ocean-induced melting paced by obliquity. During interglacial times, diatomaceous sediments indicate high surface-water productivity, minimal summer sea ice and air temperatures above freezing, suggesting an additional influence of surface melt under conditions of elevated CO(2).

605 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
15 Oct 2015-Nature
TL;DR: A coupled ice-sheet/ice-shelf model is used to show that if atmospheric warming exceeds 1.5 to 2 degrees Celsius above present, collapse of the major Antarctic ice shelves triggers a centennial- to millennial-scale response of the Antarctic ice sheet in which enhanced viscous flow produces a long-term commitment to sea-level rise.
Abstract: Atmospheric warming is projected to increase global mean surface temperatures by 0.3 to 4.8 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial values by the end of this century. If anthropogenic emissions continue unchecked, the warming increase may reach 8-10 degrees Celsius by 2300 (ref. 2). The contribution that large ice sheets will make to sea-level rise under such warming scenarios is difficult to quantify because the equilibrium-response timescale of ice sheets is longer than those of the atmosphere or ocean. Here we use a coupled ice-sheet/ice-shelf model to show that if atmospheric warming exceeds 1.5 to 2 degrees Celsius above present, collapse of the major Antarctic ice shelves triggers a centennial- to millennial-scale response of the Antarctic ice sheet in which enhanced viscous flow produces a long-term commitment (an unstoppable contribution) to sea-level rise. Our simulations represent the response of the present-day Antarctic ice-sheet system to the oceanic and climatic changes of four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) from the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. We find that substantial Antarctic ice loss can be prevented only by limiting greenhouse gas emissions to RCP 2.6 levels. Higher-emissions scenarios lead to ice loss from Antarctic that will raise sea level by 0.6-3 metres by the year 2300. Our results imply that greenhouse gas emissions in the next few decades will strongly influence the long-term contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet to global sea level.

326 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
18 Oct 2001-Nature
TL;DR: Sediment data from shallow marine cores in the western Ross Sea are presented that exhibit well dated cyclic variations, and which link the extent of the East Antarctic ice sheet directly to orbital cycles during the Oligocene/Miocene transition, suggesting that orbital influences at the frequencies of obliquity and eccentricity controlled the oscillations of the ice margin at that time.
Abstract: Between 34 and 15 million years (Myr) ago, when planetary temperatures were 3–4 °C warmer than at present and atmospheric CO2 concentrations were twice as high as today1, the Antarctic ice sheets may have been unstable2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7. Oxygen isotope records from deep-sea sediment cores suggest that during this time fluctuations in global temperatures and high-latitude continental ice volumes were influenced by orbital cycles8, 9, 10. But it has hitherto not been possible to calibrate the inferred changes in ice volume with direct evidence for oscillations of the Antarctic ice sheets11. Here we present sediment data from shallow marine cores in the western Ross Sea that exhibit well dated cyclic variations, and which link the extent of the East Antarctic ice sheet directly to orbital cycles during the Oligocene/Miocene transition (24.1–23.7 Myr ago). Three rapidly deposited glacimarine sequences are constrained to a period of less than 450 kyr by our age model, suggesting that orbital influences at the frequencies of obliquity (40 kyr) and eccentricity (125 kyr) controlled the oscillations of the ice margin at that time. An erosional hiatus covering 250 kyr provides direct evidence for a major episode of global cooling and ice-sheet expansion about 23.7 Myr ago, which had previously been inferred from oxygen isotope data (Mi1 event5).

268 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
01 May 2012-Geology
TL;DR: For the Pliocene interval 2.7-3.2 Ma from backstripping in Virginia (United States), New Zealand, and Enewetak Atoll (north Pacific Ocean), benthic foraminiferal δ18O values, and Mg/Ca-δ 18O estimates, the authors obtained global sea-level (eustatic) estimates with a peak of ∼22 m higher than present.
Abstract: We obtained global sea-level (eustatic) estimates with a peak of ∼22 m higher than present for the Pliocene interval 2.7–3.2 Ma from backstripping in Virginia (United States), New Zealand, and Enewetak Atoll (north Pacific Ocean), benthic foraminiferal δ18O values, and Mg/Ca-δ18O estimates. Statistical analysis indicates that it is likely (68% confidence interval) that peak sea level was 22 ± 5 m higher than modern, and extremely likely (95%) that it was 22 ± 10 m higher than modern. Benthic foraminiferal δ18O values appear to require that the peak was <20–21 m. Our estimates imply loss of the equivalent of the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets, and some volume loss from the East Antarctic Ice Sheet, and address the long-standing controversy concerning the Pliocene stability of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet.

253 citations


Cited by
More filters
Journal Article
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present a document, redatto, voted and pubblicato by the Ipcc -Comitato intergovernativo sui cambiamenti climatici - illustra la sintesi delle ricerche svolte su questo tema rilevante.
Abstract: Cause, conseguenze e strategie di mitigazione Proponiamo il primo di una serie di articoli in cui affronteremo l’attuale problema dei mutamenti climatici. Presentiamo il documento redatto, votato e pubblicato dall’Ipcc - Comitato intergovernativo sui cambiamenti climatici - che illustra la sintesi delle ricerche svolte su questo tema rilevante.

4,187 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
07 Aug 2009-Science
TL;DR: The responses of the Northern and Southern Hemispheres differed significantly, which reveals how the evolution of specific ice sheets affected sea level and provides insight into how insolation controlled the deglaciation.
Abstract: We used 5704 14C, 10Be, and 3He ages that span the interval from 10,000 to 50,000 years ago (10 to 50 ka) to constrain the timing of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) in terms of global ice-sheet and mountain-glacier extent. Growth of the ice sheets to their maximum positions occurred between 33.0 and 26.5 ka in response to climate forcing from decreases in northern summer insolation, tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures, and atmospheric CO2. Nearly all ice sheets were at their LGM positions from 26.5 ka to 19 to 20 ka, corresponding to minima in these forcings. The onset of Northern Hemisphere deglaciation 19 to 20 ka was induced by an increase in northern summer insolation, providing the source for an abrupt rise in sea level. The onset of deglaciation of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet occurred between 14 and 15 ka, consistent with evidence that this was the primary source for an abrupt rise in sea level ~14.5 ka.

2,691 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
18 Jun 2010-Science
TL;DR: Although there is considerable uncertainty about the spatial and temporal details, climate change is clearly and fundamentally altering ocean ecosystems and will continue to create enormous challenges and costs for societies worldwide, particularly those in developing countries.
Abstract: Marine ecosystems are centrally important to the biology of the planet, yet a comprehensive understanding of how anthropogenic climate change is affecting them has been poorly developed. Recent studies indicate that rapidly rising greenhouse gas concentrations are driving ocean systems toward conditions not seen for millions of years, with an associated risk of fundamental and irreversible ecological transformation. The impacts of anthropogenic climate change so far include decreased ocean productivity, altered food web dynamics, reduced abundance of habitat-forming species, shifting species distributions, and a greater incidence of disease. Although there is considerable uncertainty about the spatial and temporal details, climate change is clearly and fundamentally altering ocean ecosystems. Further change will continue to create enormous challenges and costs for societies worldwide, particularly those in developing countries.

2,408 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
16 Jan 2015
TL;DR: The "Great Acceleration" graphs as mentioned in this paper, originally published in 2004 to show socio-economic and Earth System trends from 1750 to 2000, have now been updated to 2010 and the dominant feature of the socioeconomic trends is that the economic activity of the human enterprise continues to grow at a rapid rate.
Abstract: The ‘Great Acceleration’ graphs, originally published in 2004 to show socio-economic and Earth System trends from 1750 to 2000, have now been updated to 2010. In the graphs of socio-economic trends, where the data permit, the activity of the wealthy (OECD) countries, those countries with emerging economies, and the rest of the world have now been differentiated. The dominant feature of the socio-economic trends is that the economic activity of the human enterprise continues to grow at a rapid rate. However, the differentiated graphs clearly show that strong equity issues are masked by considering global aggregates only. Most of the population growth since 1950 has been in the non-OECD world but the world’s economy (GDP), and hence consumption, is still strongly dominated by the OECD world. The Earth System indicators, in general, continued their long-term, post-industrial rise, although a few, such as atmospheric methane concentration and stratospheric ozone loss, showed a slowing or apparent stabilisation over the past decade. The post-1950 acceleration in the Earth System indicators remains clear. Only beyond the mid-20th century is there clear evidence for fundamental shifts in the state and functioning of the Earth System that are beyond the range of variability of the Holocene and driven by human activities. Thus, of all the candidates for a start date for the Anthropocene, the beginning of the Great Acceleration is by far the most convincing from an Earth System science perspective.

1,975 citations

Book ChapterDOI
01 Jan 2012
TL;DR: An Astronomically Tuned Neogene Time Scale (ATNTS2012) is presented in this article, as an update of ATNTS2004 in GTS2004, and the numerical ages are identical or almost so.
Abstract: An Astronomically Tuned Neogene Time Scale (ATNTS2012) is presented, as an update of ATNTS2004 in GTS2004. The new scale is not fundamentally different from its predecessor and the numerical ages are identical or almost so. Astronomical tuning has in principle the potential of generating a stable Neogene time scale as a function of the accuracy of the La2004 astronomical solution used for both scales. Minor problems remain in the tuning of the Lower Miocene. In GTS2012 we will summarize what has been modified or added since the publication of ATNTS2004 for incorporation in its successor, ATNTS2012. Mammal biostratigraphy and its chronology are elaborated, and the regional Neogene stages of the Paratethys and New Zealand are briefy discussed. To keep changes to ATNTS2004 transparent we maintain its subdivision into headings as much as possible.

1,479 citations