Tommy Bengtsson

Bio: Tommy Bengtsson is an academic researcher from Lund University. The author has contributed to research in topics: Population & Standard of living. The author has an hindex of 31, co-authored 123 publications receiving 3135 citations. Previous affiliations of Tommy Bengtsson include Institute for the Study of Labor & Economic Policy Institute.

Living Standards in the Past: New Perspectives on Well-Being in Asia and Europe

Abstract: Introduction 1. Standards of living in 18th century China: Regional differences, temporal trends and incomplete evidence 2. Farm labour productivity in Jiangnan, 1620-1850 3. Wages, inequality and pre-industrial growth in Japan, 1727-1894 4. Agriculture, labour, and the standard of living in 18th century India 5. Real wages in Europe and Asia: A first look at the long-term patterns 6. Sketching the rise of real inequality in early modern europe 7. What happened to the standard of living before the industrial revolution? New evidence from the western part of the Netherlands 8. Economic growth, human capital formation and consumption in western Europe before 1800 9. Health and nutrition in the pre-industrial era: Insights from a millenium of average heights in northern Europe 10. The burden of grandeur: Physical and economic well-being of the Russian population in the 18th century 11. Mental mortality as an indicator of the standard of living in 18th and 19th century Slavonia 12. The standard of living in Denmark in the 18th and early 19th centuries 13. Short-term demographic changes in relation to economic fluctuations: The case of Tuscany during pre-transitional period 14. New evidence on the standard of living in Sweden during the 18th and 19th centuries: Long-term development of the demographic response to short-term economic stress 15. Individuals and communities facing economic stress: A comparison of two rural areas in 19th century Belgium 16. Living standards in Liaoing, 1749-1909: Evidence from demographic outcomes 17. Demographic responses to short-term economic stress in the 18th and 19th century rural Japan: Evidence from two northeastern villages

Airborne Infectious Diseases during Infancy, and Mortality in Later Life, Southern Sweden 1766-1894

Abstract: BACKGROUND The importance of early life conditions and current conditions for mortality in later life was assessed using historical data from four rural parishes in southern Sweden. Both demographic and economic data are valid. METHODS Longitudinal demographic and socioeconomic data for individuals and household socioeconomic data from parish registers were combined with local area data on food costs and disease load using a Cox regression framework to analyse the 55-80 year age group mortality (number of deaths = 1398). RESULTS In a previous paper, the disease load experienced during the birth year, measured as the infant mortality rate, was strongly associated with old-age mortality, particularly the outcome of airborne infectious diseases. In the present paper, this impact persisted after controlling for variations in food prices during pregnancy and the birth year, and the disease load on mothers during pregnancy. The impact on mortality in later life stems from both the short-term cycles and the long-term decline in infant mortality. An asymmetrical effect and strong threshold effects were found for the cycles. Years with very high infant mortality, dominated by smallpox and whooping cough, had a strong impact, while modest changes had almost no impact at all. The effects of the disease load during the year of birth were particularly strong for children born during the winter and summer. Children severely exposed to airborne infectious diseases during their birth year had a much higher risk of dying of airborne infectious diseases in their old age. CONCLUSIONS This study suggests that exposure to airborne infectious diseases during the first year of life increases mortality at ages 55-80.

Childhood misery and disease in later life: The effects on mortality in old-age of hazards experienced in early life, southern Sweden, 1760-1894

Abstract: This paper assesses the importance of early-life conditions relative to the prevailing conditions for mortality by cause of death in later life using historical data for four rural parishes in southern Sweden for which both demographic and economic data are very good. Longitudinal demographic data for individuals are combined with household socio-economic data and community data on food costs and the disease load using a Cox regression framework. We find strong support for the hypothesis that the disease load experienced during the first year of life has a strong impact on mortality in later life, in particular on the outcome of airborne infectious diseases. Hypotheses about the effects of the disease load on mothers during pregnancy and access to nutrition during the first years of life are not supported. Contemporary short-term economic stress on the elderly was generally of limited importance although mortality varied by socio-economic group.

Childhood misery and disease in later life: the effects on mortality in old age of hazards experienced in early life, southern Sweden, 1760-1894.

Abstract: This paper assesses the importance of early-life conditions relative to the prevailing conditions for mortality by cause of death in later life using historical data for four rural parishes in southern Sweden for which both demographic and economic data are very good. Longitudinal demographic data for individuals are combined with household socio-economic data and community data on food costs and the disease load using a Cox regression framework. We find strong support for the hypothesis that the disease load experienced during the first year of life has a strong impact on mortality in later life, in particular on the outcome of airborne infectious diseases. Hypotheses about the effects of the disease load on mothers during pregnancy and access to nutrition during the first years of life are not supported. Contemporary short-term economic stress on the elderly was generally of limited importance although mortality varied by socio-economic group.

Airborne infectious diseases during infancy and mortality in later life in southern Sweden, 1766–1894

Abstract: Background: The importance of early life conditions and current conditions for mortality in later life was assessed using historical data from four rural parishes in southern Sweden. Both demographic and economic data are valid. Methods: Longitudinal demographic and socioeconomic data for individuals and household socioeconomic data from parish registers were combined with local area data on food costs and disease load using a Cox regression framework to analyse the 55–80 year age group mortality (number of deaths = 1398). Results: In a previous paper, the disease load experienced during the birth year, measured as the infant mortality rate, was strongly associated with old-age mortality, particularly the outcome of airborne infectious diseases. In the present paper, this impact persisted after controlling for variations in food prices during pregnancy and the birth year, and the disease load on mothers during pregnancy. The impact on mortality in later life stems from both the short-term cycles and the long-term decline in infant mortality. An asymmetrical effect and strong threshold effects were found for the cycles. Years with very high infant mortality, dominated by smallpox and whooping cough, had a strong impact, while modest changes had almost no impact at all. The effects of the disease load during the year of birth were particularly strong for children born during the winter and summer. Children severely exposed to airborne infectious diseases during their birth year had a much higher risk of dying of airborne infectious diseases in their old age. Conclusions: This study suggests that exposure to airborne infectious diseases during the first year of life increases mortality at ages 55–80. (Less)

A Treatise on the Family

Abstract: A Treatise on the Family. G. S. Becker. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press. 1981. Gary Becker is one of the most famous and influential economists of the second half of the 20th century, a fervent contributor to and expounder of the University of Chicago free-market philosophy, and winner of the 1992 Nobel Prize in economics. Although any book with the word "treatise" in its title is clearly intended to have an impact, one coming from someone as brilliant and controversial as Becker certainly had such a lofty goal. It has received many article-length reviews in several disciplines (Ben-Porath, 1982; Bergmann, 1995; Foster, 1993; Hannan, 1982), which is one measure of its scholarly importance, and yet its impact is, I think, less than it may have initially appeared, especially for scholars with substantive interests in the family. This book is, its title notwithstanding, more about economics and the economic approach to behavior than about the family. In the first sentence of the preface, Becker writes "In this book, I develop an economic or rational choice approach to the family." Lest anyone accuse him of focusing on traditional (i.e., material) economics topics, such as family income, poverty, and labor supply, he immediately emphasizes that those topics are not his focus. "My intent is more ambitious: to analyze marriage, births, divorce, division of labor in households, prestige, and other non-material behavior with the tools and framework developed for material behavior." Indeed, the book includes chapters on many of these issues. One chapter examines the principles of the efficient division of labor in households, three analyze marriage and divorce, three analyze various child-related issues (fertility and intergenerational mobility), and others focus on broader family issues, such as intrafamily resource allocation. His analysis is not, he believes, constrained by time or place. His intention is "to present a comprehensive analysis that is applicable, at least in part, to families in the past as well as the present, in primitive as well as modern societies, and in Eastern as well as Western cultures." His tone is profoundly conservative and utterly skeptical of any constructive role for government programs. There is a clear sense of how much better things were in the old days of a genderbased division of labor and low market-work rates for married women. Indeed, Becker is ready and able to show in Chapter 2 that such a state of affairs was efficient and induced not by market or societal discrimination (although he allows that it might exist) but by small underlying household productivity differences that arise primarily from what he refers to as "complementarities" between caring for young children while carrying another to term. Most family scholars would probably find that an unconvincingly simple explanation for a profound and complex phenomenon. What, then, is the salient contribution of Treatise on the Family? It is not literally the idea that economics could be applied to the nonmarket sector and to family life because Becker had already established that with considerable success and influence. At its core, microeconomics is simple, characterized by a belief in the importance of prices and markets, the role of self-interested or rational behavior, and, somewhat less centrally, the stability of preferences. It was Becker's singular and invaluable contribution to appreciate that the behaviors potentially amenable to the economic approach were not limited to phenomenon with explicit monetary prices and formal markets. Indeed, during the late 1950s and throughout the 1960s, he did undeniably important and pioneering work extending the domain of economics to such topics as labor market discrimination, fertility, crime, human capital, household production, and the allocation of time. Nor is Becker's contribution the detailed analyses themselves. Many of them are, frankly, odd, idiosyncratic, and off-putting. …

Forecasting, Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter

Abstract: In this book, Andrew Harvey sets out to provide a unified and comprehensive theory of structural time series models. Unlike the traditional ARIMA models, structural time series models consist explicitly of unobserved components, such as trends and seasonals, which have a direct interpretation. As a result the model selection methodology associated with structural models is much closer to econometric methodology. The link with econometrics is made even closer by the natural way in which the models can be extended to include explanatory variables and to cope with multivariate time series. From the technical point of view, state space models and the Kalman filter play a key role in the statistical treatment of structural time series models. The book includes a detailed treatment of the Kalman filter. This technique was originally developed in control engineering, but is becoming increasingly important in fields such as economics and operations research. This book is concerned primarily with modelling economic and social time series, and with addressing the special problems which the treatment of such series poses. The properties of the models and the methodological techniques used to select them are illustrated with various applications. These range from the modellling of trends and cycles in US macroeconomic time series to to an evaluation of the effects of seat belt legislation in the UK.

The COVID-19 pandemic and health inequalities.

Abstract: This essay examines the implications of the COVID-19 pandemic for health inequalities. It outlines historical and contemporary evidence of inequalities in pandemics-drawing on international research into the Spanish influenza pandemic of 1918, the H1N1 outbreak of 2009 and the emerging international estimates of socio-economic, ethnic and geographical inequalities in COVID-19 infection and mortality rates. It then examines how these inequalities in COVID-19 are related to existing inequalities in chronic diseases and the social determinants of health, arguing that we are experiencing a syndemic pandemic It then explores the potential consequences for health inequalities of the lockdown measures implemented internationally as a response to the COVID-19 pandemic, focusing on the likely unequal impacts of the economic crisis. The essay concludes by reflecting on the longer-term public health policy responses needed to ensure that the COVID-19 pandemic does not increase health inequalities for future generations.

The British Industrial Revolution in Global Perspective

Abstract: Why did the industrial revolution take place in eighteenth-century Britain and not elsewhere in Europe or Asia? In this convincing new account Robert Allen argues that the British industrial revolution was a successful response to the global economy of the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries. He shows that in Britain wages were high and capital and energy cheap in comparison to other countries in Europe and Asia. As a result, the breakthrough technologies of the industrial revolution - the steam engine, the cotton mill, and the substitution of coal for wood in metal production - were uniquely profitable to invent and use in Britain. The high wage economy of pre-industrial Britain also fostered industrial development since more people could afford schooling and apprenticeships. It was only when British engineers made these new technologies more cost-effective during the nineteenth century that the industrial revolution would spread around the world.