Tristan Kershaw

Bio: Tristan Kershaw is an academic researcher from University of Bath. The author has contributed to research in topics: Climate change & Urban heat island. The author has an hindex of 17, co-authored 35 publications receiving 1303 citations. Previous affiliations of Tristan Kershaw include University of Exeter.

On the creation of future probabilistic design weather years from UKCP09

Abstract: Weather data are used extensively by building scientists and engineers to study the performance of their designs, help compare design alternatives and ensure compliance with building regulations. Given a changing climate, there is a need to provide data for future years so that practising engineers can investigate the impact of climate change on particular designs and examine any risk the commissioning client might be exposed to. In addition, such files are of use to building scientists in developing generic solutions to problems such as elevated internal temperatures and poor thermal comfort. With the publication of the UK Climate Projections (UKCP09) such data can be created for future years up to 2080 and for various probabilistic projections of climate change by the use of a weather generator. Here, we discuss a method for the creation of future probabilistic reference years for use within thermal models. In addition, a comparison is made with the current set of future weather years based on the UKCIP...

A Review of Current and Future Weather Data for Building Simulation

Abstract: This article provides the first comprehensive assessment of methods for the creation of weather variables for use in building simulation. We undertake a critical analysis of the fundamental issues and limitations of each methodology and discusses new challenges, such as how to deal with uncertainty, the urban heat island, climate change and extreme events. Proposals for the next generation of weather files for building simulation are made based on this analysis. A seven-point list of requirements for weather files is introduced and the state-of-the-art compared to this via a mapping exercise. It is found that there are various issues with all current and suggested approaches, but the two areas most requiring attention are the production of weather files for the urban landscape and files specifically designed to test buildings against the criteria of morbidity, mortality and building services system failure.Practical application: Robust weather files are key to the design of sustainable, healthy and comfor...

A global review of energy consumption, CO2 emissions and policy in the residential sector (with an overview of the top ten CO2 emitting countries)

Abstract: Climate change and global warming as the main human societies’ threats are fundamentally associated with energy consumption and GHG emissions. The residential sector, representing 27% and 17% of global energy consumption and CO2 emissions, respectively, has a considerable role to mitigate global climate change. Ten countries, including China, the US, India, Russia, Japan, Germany, South Korea, Canada, Iran, and the UK, account for two-thirds of global CO2 emissions. Thus, these countries’ residential energy consumption and GHG emissions have direct, significant effects on the world environment. The aim of this paper is to review the status and current trends of energy consumption, CO2 emissions and energy policies in the residential sector, both globally and in those ten countries. It was found that global residential energy consumption grew by 14% from 2000 to 2011. Most of this increase has occurred in developing countries, where population, urbanization and economic growth have been the main driving factors. Among the ten studied countries, all of the developed ones have shown a promising trend of reduction in CO2 emissions, apart from the US and Japan, which showed a 4% rise. Globally, the residential energy market is dominated by traditional biomass (40% of the total) followed by electricity (21%) and natural gas (20%), but the total proportion of fossil fuels has decreased over the past decade. Energy policy plays a significant role in controlling energy consumption. Different energy policies, such as building energy codes, incentives, energy labels have been employed by countries. Those policies can be successful if they are enhanced by making them mandatory, targeting net-zero energy building, and increasing public awareness about new technologies. However, developing countries, such as China, India and Iran, still encounter with considerable growth in GHG emissions and energy consumption, which are mostly related to the absence of strong, efficient policy.

Magnitude of urban heat islands largely explained by climate and population

Abstract: Urban heat islands (UHIs) exacerbate the risk of heat-related mortality associated with global climate change. The intensity of UHIs varies with population size and mean annual precipitation, but a unifying explanation for this variation is lacking, and there are no geographically targeted guidelines for heat mitigation. Here we analyse summertime differences between urban and rural surface temperatures (ΔTs) worldwide and find a nonlinear increase in ΔTs with precipitation that is controlled by water or energy limitations on evapotranspiration and that modulates the scaling of ΔTs with city size. We introduce a coarse-grained model that links population, background climate, and UHI intensity, and show that urban–rural differences in evapotranspiration and convection efficiency are the main determinants of warming. The direct implication of these nonlinearities is that mitigation strategies aimed at increasing green cover and albedo are more efficient in dry regions, whereas the challenge of cooling tropical cities will require innovative solutions. The effect of cities on urban climate (often warmer but sometimes cooler than their surroundings) is largely explained by local hydroclimate and patterns of city development.

The city and urban heat islands: A review of strategies to mitigate adverse effects

Abstract: Cities occupy 2% of the earth's surface but their inhabitants consume 75% of the world's energy resources. Under certain conditions, the heat from solar radiation and different urban activities can make city temperatures rise in certain areas, simply because of the way in which a city is structured. This effect is known as the urban heat island (UHI). This article provides a review of recent research on the urban heat island as well as of the strategies that can be applied to mitigate its adverse effects. Such strategies can be applied in the project design phase of urban planning and thus directly affect city temperatures on a local scale. The elements analyzed in this paper include green spaces, trees, albedo, pavement surfaces, vegetation, as well as building types and materials. The discussion of this research clearly reflects the impact of urban morphology on local temperatures and how urban design can be modified to reduce energy consumption and CO2 emissions into the atmosphere. This study is useful for professionals who are responsible for decision-making during the design phase of urban planning.