Tsanyao Frank Yang

Bio: Tsanyao Frank Yang is an academic researcher from National Taiwan University. The author has contributed to research in topics: Soil gas & Radon. The author has an hindex of 27, co-authored 78 publications receiving 2196 citations. Previous affiliations of Tsanyao Frank Yang include National Center for Research on Earthquake Engineering.

Composition and exhalation flux of gases from mud volcanoes in Taiwan

Abstract: Many mud volcanoes are distributed along the tectonic sutures in southern Taiwan and can be divided into five zones based on their relative positions in different tectonic domains. Most active mud volcanoes are exhaling methane-dominated gases. Nevertheless, some gases show unusual carbon dioxide-dominated and/or nitrogen-excess compositions. This implies that there are multiple sources for the gas compositions of mud volcanoes in Taiwan. For better understanding the total amount of exhalation gases and its flux, the gas flow and compositions were continuously measured in the interval of two minutes at Chung-lun (CL) bubbling mud pool for a few months. The major compositions of gases exhaling from this site were 75~90% of CO2 and 5~12% of CH4. The amount of gases exhaling from the mud pool can be estimated to be about 1.4 ton/year for CH4 and 28 ton/year for CO2, respectively. The preliminary results of exhaling gas flux from the major vents of representative active mud volcanoes, yielded an estimated total CH4 output of the mud volcanoes in Taiwan of ca. 29 ton/year during quiescent period.

Earthquake Prediction Studies Using Radon as a Precursor in N-W Himalayas, India: A Case Study

Abstract: Many theoretical and empirical algorithms have been proposed in the literature for radon release; however whilst its relation with earthquake occurrence has been developed on occasions, there have been no specific complete studies of this phenomenon. In this study, radon monitoring was carried out using emanometry technique at Palampur and Dalhousie stations in the Kangra valley of Himachal Pradesh (India) from June 1996 to September 1999. Discrete radon concentrations were recorded in soil-gas and groundwater at both the stations. Radon anomalies were correlated with microseismic events recorded along the Main Boundary Thrust (MBT) of N-W Himalaya in the grid (30-34°N, 74-78°E). The influence of meteorological parameters viz, temperature, rainfall, relative humidity and wind velocity on radon concentration was qualitatively evaluated. The radon exhalation showed positive correlation with temperature, rainfall, relative humidity and negative correlation with wind velocity. Both positive and negative radon anomalies were recorded. The study reveals the precursory nature of radon anomalies and their correlation with microseismic events in 62% of the cases but prediction of earthquakes is yet a remote possibility. From the analysis it has been found that radon anomaly is not only influenced by seismic parameters but also by meteorological parameters and the nature of carrier gases/fluids. To learn more about the phenomenon, simultaneous recording of various gases (He, CO2, CH4) and meteorological parameters, together with multiple continuous measurements of radon have been suggested.

Reconnaissance of soil gas composition over the buried fault and fracture zone in southern Taiwan

Abstract: The soil-gas method is based on the principle that faults and/or fractures are highly permeable pathways in rock formation where gases can migrate upward from the deep crust and/or mantle and retain their deep-source signatures in the soil cover. This method is adopted because it can give results in short time and at low costs. In this work, soil-gas compositions are measured and synthesized in conjunction with the geological, geophysical and geomorphological information along the Chaochou Fault, which is considered as an active fault in southern Taiwan. More than 500 soil-gas samples were collected along 18 traverses crossing the observed structures and analyzed for He, CO 2 , CH 4 , O 2 + Ar and N 2 . The results show that both helium and carbon dioxide concentrations in the soil gas have anomalous values at the specific positions in each of the traverses. The trace of these positions coincides with the N-S trending faults and/or fractures, that is, the postulated trend and pattern of the faults in southern Taiwan. Hence, helium and carbon dioxide are useful index gases in this area. Based on the helium and carbon dioxide concentrations of the soil gases, at least three components are required to explain the observed variations. In addition to the atmospheric air component, two gas sources can be recognized. One is the deep crust component, exhibiting high He and CO 2 concentrations, and considered as best indicator for the surface location of fault/fracture zones in the region. The other component could be a shallower gas source with high CO2 concentration, and low He concentration. Moreover, helium isotopic compositions of representative samples vary from 0.52 to 1.05 Ra (the 3 He/ 4 He ratio of air), illustrating that most samples have soil air component and may be mixed with some crustal component but no significant input of mantle component. Carbon isotopic composition (δ 13 C) of carbon dioxide in the soil samples vary from ‐11.8 to ‐23.4‰, which could be the result of mixing of organic and limestone components. Both helium and carbon isotopic results support the multiple gas sources in studied area. Meanwhile, continuous monitoring indicates that soil gas variations at fault zone may be closely related to the local crustal stress and hence, is suitable for further monitoring on fault activities.

Plate tectonics in the late Paleozoic

Abstract: As the chronicle of plate motions through time, paleogeography is fundamental to our understanding of plate tectonics and its role in shaping the geology of the present-day. To properly appreciate the history of tectonics—and its influence on the deep Earth and climate—it is imperative to seek an accurate and global model of paleogeography. However, owing to the incessant loss of oceanic lithosphere through subduction, the paleogeographic reconstruction of ‘full-plates’ (including oceanic lithosphere) becomes increasingly challenging with age. Prior to 150 Ma ∼60% of the lithosphere is missing and reconstructions are developed without explicit regard for oceanic lithosphere or plate tectonic principles; in effect, reflecting the earlier mobilistic paradigm of continental drift. Although these ‘continental’ reconstructions have been immensely useful, the next-generation of mantle models requires global plate kinematic descriptions with full-plate reconstructions. Moreover, in disregarding (or only loosely applying) plate tectonic rules, continental reconstructions fail to take advantage of a wealth of additional information in the form of practical constraints. Following a series of new developments, both in geodynamic theory and analytical tools, it is now feasible to construct full-plate models that lend themselves to testing by the wider Earth-science community. Such a model is presented here for the late Paleozoic (410–250 Ma) together with a review of the underlying data. Although we expect this model to be particularly useful for numerical mantle modeling, we hope that it will also serve as a general framework for understanding late Paleozoic tectonics, one on which future improvements can be built and further tested.

OPERATIONAL EARTHQUAKE FORECASTING. State of Knowledge and Guidelines for Utilization

Abstract: Following the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake, the Dipartimento della Protezione Civile Italiana (DPC), appointed an International Commission on Earthquake Forecasting for Civil Protection (ICEF) to report on the current state of knowledge of short-term prediction and forecasting of tectonic earthquakes and indicate guidelines for utilization of possible forerunners of large earthquakes to drive civil protection actions, including the use of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis in the wake of a large earthquake. The ICEF reviewed research on earthquake prediction and forecasting, drawing from developments in seismically active regions worldwide. A prediction is defined as a deterministic statement that a future earthquake will or will not occur in a particular geographic region, time window, and magnitude range, whereas a forecast gives a probability (greater than zero but less than one) that such an event will occur. Earthquake predictability, the degree to which the future occurrence of earthquakes can be determined from the observable behavior of earthquake systems, is poorly understood. This lack of understanding is reflected in the inability to reliably predict large earthquakes in seismically active regions on short time scales. Most proposed prediction methods rely on the concept of a diagnostic precursor; i.e., some kind of signal observable before earthquakes that indicates with high probability the location, time, and magnitude of an impending event. Precursor methods reviewed here include changes in strain rates, seismic wave speeds, and electrical conductivity; variations of radon concentrations in groundwater, soil, and air; fluctuations in groundwater levels; electromagnetic variations near and above Earth's surface; thermal anomalies; anomalous animal behavior; and seismicity patterns. The search for diagnostic precursors has not yet produced a successful short-term prediction scheme. Therefore, this report focuses on operational earthquake forecasting as the principle means for gathering and disseminating authoritative information about time-dependent seismic hazards to help communities prepare for potentially destructive earthquakes. On short time scales of days and weeks, earthquake sequences show clustering in space and time, as indicated by the aftershocks triggered by large events. Statistical descriptions of clustering explain many features observed in seismicity catalogs, and they can be used to construct forecasts that indicate how earthquake probabilities change over the short term. Properly applied, short-term forecasts have operational utility; for example, in anticipating aftershocks that follow large earthquakes. Although the value of long-term forecasts for ensuring seismic safety is clear, the interpretation of short-term forecasts is problematic, because earthquake probabilities may vary over orders of magnitude but typically remain low in an absolute sense (< 1% per day). Translating such low-probability forecasts into effective decision-making is a difficult challenge. Reports on the current utilization operational forecasting in earthquake risk management were compiled for six countries with high seismic risk: China, Greece, Italy, Japan, Russia, United States. Long-term models are currently the most important forecasting tools for civil protection against earthquake damage, because they guide earthquake safety provisions of building codes, performance-based seismic design, and other risk-reducing engineering practices, such as retrofitting to correct design flaws in older buildings. Short-term forecasting of aftershocks is practiced by several countries among those surveyed, but operational earthquake forecasting has not been fully implemented (i.e., regularly updated and on a national scale) in any of them. Based on the experience accumulated in seismically active regions, the ICEF has provided to DPC a set of recommendations on the utilization of operational forecasting in Italy, which may also be useful in other countries. The public should be provided with open sources of information about the short-term probabilities of future earthquakes that are authoritative, scientific, consistent, and timely. Advisories should be based on operationally qualified, regularly updated seismicity forecasting systems that have been rigorously reviewed and updated by experts in the creation, delivery, and utility of earthquake information. The quality of all operational models should be evaluated for reliability and skill by retrospective testing, and they should be under continuous prospective testing against established long-term forecasts and alternative time-dependent models. Alert procedures should be standardized to facilitate decisions at different levels of government and among the public. Earthquake probability thresholds should be established to guide alert levels based on objective analysis of costs and benefits, as well as the less tangible aspects of value-of-information, such as gains in psychological preparedness and resilience. The principles of effective public communication established by social science research should be applied to the delivery of seismic hazard information.

Plate Tectonics in the Late Paleozoic

Abstract: As the chronicle of plate motions through time, paleogeography is fundamental to our understanding of plate tectonics and its role in shaping the geology of the present-day. To properly appreciate the history of tectonics—and its influence on the deep Earth and climate—it is imperative to seek an accurate and global model of paleogeography. However, owing to the incessant loss of oceanic lithosphere through subduction, the paleogeographic reconstruction of ‘full-plates’ (including oceanic lithosphere) becomes increasingly challenging with age. Prior to 150 Ma ∼60% of the lithosphere is missing and reconstructions are developed without explicit regard for oceanic lithosphere or plate tectonic principles; in effect, reflecting the earlier mobilistic paradigm of continental drift. Although these ‘continental’ reconstructions have been immensely useful, the next-generation of mantle models requires global plate kinematic descriptions with full-plate reconstructions. Moreover, in disregarding (or only loosely applying) plate tectonic rules, continental reconstructions fail to take advantage of a wealth of additional information in the form of practical constraints. Following a series of new developments, both in geodynamic theory and analytical tools, it is now feasible to construct full-plate models that lend themselves to testing by the wider Earth-science community. Such a model is presented here for the late Paleozoic (410–250 Ma) together with a review of the underlying data. Although we expect this model to be particularly useful for numerical mantle modeling, we hope that it will also serve as a general framework for understanding late Paleozoic tectonics, one on which future improvements can be built and further tested.