U. C. Mohanty

Bio: U. C. Mohanty is an academic researcher from Indian Institute of Technology Bhubaneswar. The author has contributed to research in topics: Monsoon & Tropical cyclone. The author has an hindex of 37, co-authored 306 publications receiving 5501 citations. Previous affiliations of U. C. Mohanty include Purdue University & Met Office.

Changes in the characteristics of rain events in India

Abstract: [1] Daily gridded (1° × 1°) rainfall data prepared by the India Meteorological Department for the period 1951–2004 have been used in this study to examine possible changes in the frequency of rain events in India in terms of their duration and intensity per day. So far as the duration is concerned, a rain event is classified as short, long, dry, or prolonged dry spell. Similarly in terms of intensity, a rainy day is considered as low, moderate, or heavy. Changes in the frequency of these events have great relevance from the point of view of climate change. Threshold and limiting values for defining the heavy and moderate rain days are calculated in accordance with the gamma probability distribution. Results show that the frequencies of moderate and low rain days considered over the entire country have significantly decreased in the last half century. On the basis of the duration of rain events it is inferred that long spells show a significant decreasing trend over India as a whole while short and dry spells indicate an increasing tendency with 5% significance. The characteristics of rain events are also examined over six homogenous rainfall zones separately since the spatial distribution of rainfall over India shows large variability. In this study, the changes in the frequencies of different categories of rain events suggest weakening of the summer monsoon circulation over India. This hypothesis of a weakening of monsoon circulation is supported by significant reduction in the 850 hPa wind fields in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalyzed data set.

Western Disturbances: A review

Abstract: Cyclonic storms associated with the midlatitude Subtropical Westerly Jet (SWJ), referred to as Western Disturbances (WDs), play a critical role in the meteorology of the Indian subcontinent. WDs embedded in the southward propagating SWJ produce extreme precipitation over northern India and are further enhanced over the Himalayas due to orographic land-atmosphere interactions. During December, January, and February, WD snowfall is the dominant precipitation input to establish and sustain regional snowpack, replenishing regional water resources. Spring melt is the major source of runoff to northern Indian rivers and can be linked to important hydrologic processes from aquifer recharge to flashfloods. Understanding the dynamical structure, evolution-decay, and interaction of WDs with the Himalayas is therefore necessary to improve knowledge which has wide ranging socioeconomic implications beyond short-term disaster response including cold season agricultural activities, management of water resources, and development of vulnerability-adaptive measures. In addition, WD wintertime precipitation provides critical mass input to existing glaciers and modulates the albedo characteristics of the Himalayas and Tibetan Plateau, affecting large-scale circulation and the onset of the succeeding Indian Summer Monsoon. Assessing the impacts of climate variability and change on the Indian subcontinent requires fundamental understanding of the dynamics of WDs. In particular, projected changes in the structure of the SWJ will influence evolution-decay processes of the WDs and impact Himalayan regional water availability. This review synthesizes past research on WDs with a perspective to provide a comprehensive assessment of the state of knowledge to assist both researchers and policymakers, and context for future research.

Changes in moisture and energy fluxes due to agricultural land use and irrigation in the Indian Monsoon Belt

Abstract: [1] We present a conceptual synthesis of the impact that agricultural activity in India can have on land-atmosphere interactions through irrigation. We illustrate a ‘‘bottom up’’ approach to evaluate the effects of land use change on both physical processes and human vulnerability. We compared vapor fluxes (estimated evaporation and transpiration) from a pre-agricultural and a contemporary land cover and found that mean annual vapor fluxes have increased by 17% (340 km 3 ) with a 7% increase (117 km 3 ) in the wet season and a 55% increase (223 km 3 ) in the dry season. Two thirds of this increase was attributed to irrigation, with groundwater-based irrigation contributing 14% and 35% of the vapor fluxes in the wet and dry seasons, respectively. The area averaged change in latent heat flux across India was estimated to be 9 Wm 2 . The largest increases occurred where both cropland and irrigated lands were the predominant contemporary land uses. Citation: Douglas, E. M., D. Niyogi, S. Frolking, J. B. Yeluripati, R. A. Pielke Sr.,

Analysis of the 26 July 2005 heavy rain event over Mumbai, India using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model

Abstract: A case-study of the 26 July 2005 Mumbai heavy-rain event that recorded 944 mm rainfall in 24 h with significant spatial variability was carried out using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The event was poorly forecasted by operational models and resulted in large human and economic losses. The present results indicate that the WRF system was able to reproduce the heavy rainfall event and the associated dynamical and thermo- dynamical features. A number of experiments were conducted with the WRF model that suggest the highly localized, heavy rain was the result of an interaction of synoptic-scale weather systems with the mesoscale, coastal land-surface features. These experiments indicate that the large-scale rising motion over the Mumbai region was synoptically forced. Analysis of the model-simulated intense, but short-lived, convective rain cells forming in the large-scale rising motion over Mumbai traces their moisture source to the north and northwesterly flow from the Arabian Sea. Synthetic sensitivity simulations without topography and without a land surface (land replaced with water) show that the large-scale synoptic flow positioned the low-pressure system over the Arabian Sea, while the mesoscale land-surface (including topography and latent heating) feedback modulated the location and intensity of the rain by changes in the winds and regional moisture convergences. Another important feature captured in the high-resolution model analysis is the formation of a mesoscale vortex over Mumbai that appears to have enhanced the conditions for localized, heavy rainfall over Mumbai. Copyright c � 2008 Royal Meteorological Society

Customization of WRF-ARW model with physical parameterization schemes for the simulation of tropical cyclones over North Indian Ocean

Abstract: The convection and planetary boundary layer (PBL) processes play significant role in the genesis and intensification of tropical cyclones (TCs). Several convection and PBL parameterization schemes incorporate these processes in the numerical weather prediction models. Therefore, a systematic intercomparison of performance of parameterization schemes is essential to customize a model. In this context, six combinations of physical parameterization schemes (2 PBL Schemes, YSU and MYJ, and 3 convection schemes, KF, BM, and GD) of WRF-ARW model are employed to obtain the optimum combination for the prediction of TCs over North Indian Ocean. Five cyclones are studied for sensitivity experiments and the out-coming combination is tested on real-time prediction of TCs during 2008. The tracks are also compared with those provided by the operational centers like NCEP, ECMWF, UKMO, NCMRWF, and IMD. It is found that the combination of YSU PBL scheme with KF convection scheme (YKF) provides a better prediction of intensity, track, and rainfall consistently. The average RMSE of intensity (13 hPa in CSLP and 11 m s−1 in 10-m wind), mean track, and landfall errors is found to be least with YKF combination. The equitable threat score (ETS) of YKF combination is more than 0.2 for the prediction of 24-h accumulated rainfall up to 125 mm. The vertical structural characteristics of cyclone inner core also recommend the YKF combination for Indian seas cyclones. In the real-time prediction of 2008 TCs, the 72-, 48-, and 24-h mean track errors are 172, 129, and 155 km and the mean landfall errors are 125, 73, and 66 km, respectively. Compared with the track of leading operational agencies, the WRF model is competing in 24 h (116 km error) and 72 h (166 km) but superior in 48-h (119 km) track forecast.

Numerical study of convection observed during the Winter Monsoon Experiment using a mesoscale two-dimensional model [presentation]

Abstract: Abstract A two-dimensional version of the Pennsylvania State University mesoscale model has been applied to Winter Monsoon Experiment data in order to simulate the diurnally occurring convection observed over the South China Sea. The domain includes a representation of part of Borneo as well as the sea so that the model can simulate the initiation of convection. Also included in the model are parameterizations of mesoscale ice phase and moisture processes and longwave and shortwave radiation with a diurnal cycle. This allows use of the model to test the relative importance of various heating mechanisms to the stratiform cloud deck, which typically occupies several hundred kilometers of the domain. Frank and Cohen's cumulus parameterization scheme is employed to represent vital unresolved vertical transports in the convective area. The major conclusions are: Ice phase processes are important in determining the level of maximum large-scale heating and vertical motion because there is a strong anvil componen...

Monsoons: Processes, predictability, and the prospects for prediction

Abstract: The Tropical Ocean-Global Atmosphere (TOGA) program sought to determine the predictability of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system. The World Climate Research Programme's (WCRP) Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System (GOALS) program seeks to explore predictability of the global climate system through investigation of the major planetary heat sources and sinks, and interactions between them. The Asian-Australian monsoon system, which undergoes aperiodic and high amplitude variations on intraseasonal, annual, biennial and interannual timescales is a major focus of GOALS. Empirical seasonal forecasts of the monsoon have been made with moderate success for over 100 years. More recent modeling efforts have not been successful. Even simulation of the mean structure of the Asian monsoon has proven elusive and the observed ENSO-monsoon relationships has been difficult to replicate. Divergence in simulation skill occurs between integrations by different models or between members of ensembles of the same model. This degree of spread is surprising given the relative success of empirical forecast techniques. Two possible explanations are presented: difficulty in modeling the monsoon regions and nonlinear error growth due to regional hydrodynamical instabilities. It is argued that the reconciliation of these explanations is imperative for prediction of the monsoon to be improved. To this end, a thorough description of observed monsoon variability and the physical processes that are thought to be important is presented. Prospects of improving prediction and some strategies that may help achieve improvement are discussed.

Seasonal Heating of the Tibetan Plateau and Its Effects on the Evolution of the Asian Summer Monsoon

Abstract: Using the objectively analyzed FGGE II-b upper-air data, the large-scale circulation, heat sources and moisture sinks over the Tibetan Plateau and surrounding areas are examined for a 9-month period from December 1978 to August 1979. In addition to the FGGE data, special soundings obtained during the Chinese Qinghai-Xizang (Tibet) Plateau Meteorological Experiment (QXPMEX) from May to August 1979 are also used in the objective analyses. The evolution of the large-scale flow patterns, temperature, outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) and vertical circulation is described in order to identify the distinct seasonal changes from winter to summer that lead to the onset of the Asian summer monsoon. The Tibetan Plateau maintains a large-scale thermally driven vertical circulation which is originally separated from the planetary-scale monsoon system. The rising motion exists only on the western Plateau in winter and then spreads to the whole Plateau as the season progresses. The monsoon onset over Asia is an interaction process between the Plateau-induced circulation and the circulation associated with the principal rainbelt migrating northward. During winter the Plateau is a heat sink, but it is surrounded by regions of more intense cooling. In spring the Plateau becomes a heat source, but the cooling in the surrounding areas continues. The sensible heat flux from the surface provides the major source of heating on the Plateau. However, additional contribution from condensation heating is observed in the western Plateau during all seasons and, more significantly, in the eastern Plateau during summer. The sensible heating of the elevated Plateau surface and the radiative cooling in the environment maintain the horizontal temperature contrast that drives the thermally direct vertical circulation. The detailed examination of the warming process of the upper troposphere during two transition periods, i, e., the onset of the Southeast Asian monsoon in May and that of the Indian monsoon in June, reveals that the temperature increase over the eastern Plateau during the first onset was mainly the result of diabatic heating, whereas that over the Iran-Afghanistan-western Plateau region leading to the second onset was caused by intense subsidence. There are large diurnal variations in the boundary layer and vertical circulation over the Plateau. As a result of diurnal heating of the surface, a deep mixed layer of nearly uniform potential temperature exists over the Plateau in the evening (1200 UTC), suggesting the role of thermal convection in the upward transport of heat. However, moisture is not well mixed vertically and there is a large horizontal temperature gradient in the boundary layer. From late spring to summer the boundary layer becomes more stable for dry convection. On the other hand, the vertical distributions of equivalent potential temperature in late spring and afterwards show a conditionally unstable stratification for moist convection with the increase of moisture of surface air.

Climate change and the South Asian summer monsoon

Abstract: More than one billion people live in regions affected by the South Asian summer monsoon. This Review provides an overview of our understanding of summer monsoon rainfall variability and its causes, and considers how the monsoon will change as a consequence of global warming.