Urs Ks

Bio: Urs Ks is an academic researcher. The author has contributed to research in topics: Demand shock & Natural experiment. The author has an hindex of 1, co-authored 2 publications receiving 2 citations.

Business Expectations and Adaptation Strategies by Firms against COVID-19 Induced Economic Downturn: Evidence from India

Abstract: Did innovating firms experience improved business expectations during the pandemic? Using a survey of Indian firms conducted in June 2020, we explore whether innovating into a new product line or adapting to e-commerce platforms improved business outlook. To address the endogeneity of innovation/adaptation due to downturn in future sentiments, we use structural equations framework which relates the six-month ahead expectations of key demand (new orders) and supply variables (labour costs and raw material costs) to the two innovation strategies. Innovation strategies are in turn determined by unobservable latent variables of past demand- and supply-side shocks (experienced due to the Coronavirus pandemic and its associated lockdown in India). For expectations regarding new orders, we find that both the innovation strategies had a positive and significant impact. The innovation strategies had a mixed impact on the supply side sentiments. While firms which adopted to e-commerce were less likely to report higher expected labour costs six months in the future, neither of the two strategies improved expectations regarding raw material costs. Our paper is the first to explore the mutual relationships between business outlook, adaptation strategies and firm characteristics in India during the pandemic.

Business sentiments during India’s national lockdown: Lessons for second and potential third wave

Abstract: The implementation of the COVID-19 national lockdown announced suddenly in March 2020 in India provided a unique opportunity to capture real-time changes in business sentiments during episodes of unexpected and sudden disruptions. Using a logit-probability model to analyse data of this natural experiment showed that firms’ 6-months ahead sentiments for its financial condition worsened drastically during lockdown compared to firms surveyed immediately prior to the announcement. Further, smaller firms showed a relatively higher impact. We also find that firms perceive this as a relatively higher demand shock in terms of falling domestic sales post-lockdown whereas supply shocks are perceived to be on the downside. Lastly the mitigation strategy of firms involved reducing employment for unskilled workers and wages for skilled workers. This unique study gives insights not only about firms and their strategies but regarding appropriate policy choices during lockdown. The lessons are applicable for governments which imposed local lockdowns during the second wave and potential disruption for the expected third wave.

Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation

Abstract: Meeting: International Seminar on Information and Communication Technology Statistics, Seoul, Republic of Korea, 19-21 July 2010

Forging the synergy between anticipation and innovation : the futures action model

Abstract: This paper presents the theory and practice of the Futures Action Model (FAM). FAM has been in development for over a decade, in a number of contexts and iterations. It is a creative methodology that uses a variety of concepts and tools to guide participants through the conception and modeling of enterprises, services, social innovations and projects in the context of emerging futures. It is used to generate strategic options that people can utilise to build opportunities for value creation as they move into the future. This paper details examples in its development, and provides theoretical and practical guidelines for educators and business facilitators to use the FAM system in their own workplaces.