Vernon L. Smith

Bio: Vernon L. Smith is an academic researcher from Chapman University. The author has contributed to research in topics: Experimental economics & Common value auction. The author has an hindex of 91, co-authored 482 publications receiving 36165 citations. Previous affiliations of Vernon L. Smith include California Institute of Technology & Cowles Foundation.

Bubbles, crashes, and endogenous expectations in experimental spot asset markets1

Abstract: Spot asset trading is studied in an environment in which all investors receive the same dividend from a known probability distribution at the end of each of T= 15 (or 30) trading periods. Fourteen of twenty-two experiments exhibit price bubbles followed by crashes relative to intrinsic dividend value. When traders are experienced this reduces, but does not eliminate, the probability of a bubble. The regression of changes in mean price on lagged excess bids (number of bids minus the number of offers in the previous period), P, - Pt_= a + f(B,_1 - O_l), supports the hypothesis that -a = E(d), the one-period expected value of the dividend, and that f > 0, where excess bids is a surrogate measure of excess demand arising from homegrown capital gains (losses) expectations. Thus, when (Bt-1 - O _-) goes to zero we have convergence to rational expectations in the sense of Fama (1970), that arbitrage becomes unprofitable. The observed bubble phenomenon can also be interpreted as a form of temporary myopia (Tirole, 1982) from which agents learn that capital gains expectations are only temporarily sustainable, ultimately inducing common expectations, or "priors" (Tirole, 1982). Four of twenty-six experiments, all using experienced subjects, yield outcomes that appear to the "chart's eye" to converge "early" to rational expectations, although even in these cases we get > 0, and small price fluctuations of a few cents that invite "scalping."

Experimental Economics: Induced Value Theory

Abstract: It is the premise of this paper that the study of the decision behavior of suitably motivated individuals and groups in lab- oratory or other socially isolated settings such as hospitals (R. Battalio, J. Kagel, et al., 1973) has important and significant application to the development and verification of theories of the economic system at large.

Advances in prospect theory: cumulative representation of uncertainty

Abstract: We develop a new version of prospect theory that employs cumulative rather than separable decision weights and extends the theory in several respects. This version, called cumulative prospect theory, applies to uncertain as well as to risky prospects with any number of outcomes, and it allows different weighting functions for gains and for losses. Two principles, diminishing sensitivity and loss aversion, are invoked to explain the characteristic curvature of the value function and the weighting functions. A review of the experimental evidence and the results of a new experiment confirm a distinctive fourfold pattern of risk attitudes: risk aversion for gains and risk seeking for losses of high probability; risk seeking for gains and risk aversion for losses of low probability. Expected utility theory reigned for several decades as the dominant normative and descriptive model of decision making under uncertainty, but it has come under serious question in recent years. There is now general agreement that the theory does not provide an adequate description of individual choice: a substantial body of evidence shows that decision makers systematically violate its basic tenets. Many alternative models have been proposed in response to this empirical challenge (for reviews, see Camerer, 1989; Fishburn, 1988; Machina, 1987). Some time ago we presented a model of choice, called prospect theory, which explained the major violations of expected utility theory in choices between risky prospects with a small number of outcomes (Kahneman and Tversky, 1979; Tversky and Kahneman, 1986). The key elements of this theory are 1) a value function that is concave for gains, convex for losses, and steeper for losses than for gains,

A theory of fairness, competition and cooperation

Abstract: There is strong evidence that people exploit their bargaining power in competitivemarkets butnot inbilateral bargainingsituations. Thereisalsostrong evidence that people exploit free-riding opportunities in voluntary cooperation games. Yet, when they are given the opportunity to punish free riders, stable cooperation is maintained, although punishment is costly for those who punish. This paper asks whether there is a simple common principle that can explain this puzzling evidence. We show that if some people care about equity the puzzles can be resolved. It turns out that the economic environment determines whether the fair types or the selesh types dominate equilibrium behavior.

A Theory of Fairness, Competition and Cooperation

Abstract: There is strong evidence that people exploit their bargaining power in competitive markets but not in bilateral bargaining situations. There is also strong evidence that people exploit free-riding opportunities in voluntary cooperation games. Yet, when they are given the opportunity to punish free riders, stable cooperation is maintained although punishment is costly for those who punish. This paper asks whether there is a simple common principle that can explain this puzzling evidence. We show that if a fraction of the people exhibits inequality aversion the puzzles can be resolved.

The WEIRDest People in the World

Abstract: Behavioral scientists routinely publish broad claims about human psychology and behavior in the world's top journals based on samples drawn entirely from Western, Educated, Industrialized, Rich, and Democratic (WEIRD) societies. Researchers - often implicitly - assume that either there is little variation across human populations, or that these "standard subjects" are as representative of the species as any other population. Are these assumptions justified? Here, our review of the comparative database from across the behavioral sciences suggests both that there is substantial variability in experimental results across populations and that WEIRD subjects are particularly unusual compared with the rest of the species - frequent outliers. The domains reviewed include visual perception, fairness, cooperation, spatial reasoning, categorization and inferential induction, moral reasoning, reasoning styles, self-concepts and related motivations, and the heritability of IQ. The findings suggest that members of WEIRD societies, including young children, are among the least representative populations one could find for generalizing about humans. Many of these findings involve domains that are associated with fundamental aspects of psychology, motivation, and behavior - hence, there are no obvious a priori grounds for claiming that a particular behavioral phenomenon is universal based on sampling from a single subpopulation. Overall, these empirical patterns suggests that we need to be less cavalier in addressing questions of human nature on the basis of data drawn from this particularly thin, and rather unusual, slice of humanity. We close by proposing ways to structurally re-organize the behavioral sciences to best tackle these challenges.