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Vipin P. Veetil

Bio: Vipin P. Veetil is an academic researcher from Indian Institute of Technology Madras. The author has contributed to research in topics: Government & Voucher. The author has an hindex of 7, co-authored 46 publications receiving 230 citations. Previous affiliations of Vipin P. Veetil include Nihon University & Paris-Sorbonne University.

Papers
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Journal ArticleDOI
19 Jun 2020
TL;DR: This paper estimates the cost of the lockdown of some sectors of the world economy in the wake of COVID-19 using a multi sector disequilibrium model with buyer-seller relations between agents located in different countries and study the process of economic recovery following the end of the lockdowns.
Abstract: This paper estimates the cost of the lockdown of some sectors of the world economy in the wake of COVID-19. We develop a multi sector disequilibrium model with buyer-seller relations between agents located in different countries. The production network model allows us to study not only the direct cost of the lockdown but also indirect costs which emerge from the reductions in the availability of intermediate inputs. Agents determine the quantity of output and the proportions in which to combine inputs using prices that emerge from local interactions. The model is calibrated to the world economy using input-output data on 56 industries in 44 countries including all major economies. Within our model, the lockdowns are implemented as partial reductions in the output of some sectors using data on sectoral decomposition of capacity reductions. We use computational experiments to replicate the temporal sequence of the lockdowns implemented in different countries. World output falls by 7% at the early stage of the crisis when only China is under lockdown and by 23% at the peak of the crisis when many countries are under a lockdown. These direct impacts are amplified as the shock propagates through the world economy because of the buyer-seller relations. Supply-chain spillovers are capable of amplifying the direct impact by more than two folds. Naturally, the substitutability between intermediate inputs is a major determinant of the amplification. We also study the process of economic recovery following the end of the lockdowns. Price flexibility and minor technological adaptations help in reducing the time it takes for the economy to recover. The world economy takes about one quarter to move towards the new equilibrium in the optimistic and unlikely scenario of the end of all lockdowns. Recovery time is likely to be significantly greater if partial lockdowns persist.

120 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, a multi-sector disequilibrium model with buyer- seller relations between agents located in different countries was developed to study not only the direct cost of the lockdown but also indirect costs which emerge from the reductions in the availability of intermediate inputs.
Abstract: This paper estimates the cost of the lockdown of some sectors of the world economy in the wake of COVID-19. We develop a multi sector disequilibrium model with buyer- seller relations between agents located in different countries. The production network model allows us to study not only the direct cost of the lockdown but also indirect costs which emerge from the reductions in the availability of intermediate inputs. Agents determine the quantity of output and the proportions in which to combine inputs using prices that emerge from local interactions. The model is calibrated to the world economy using input-output data on 56 industries in 44 countries including all major economies. Within our model, the lockdowns are implemented as partial reductions in the output of some sectors using data on sectoral decomposition of capacity reductions. We use computational experiments to replicate the temporal sequence of the lockdowns implemented in different countries. World output falls by 7% at the early stage of the crisis when only China is under lockdown and by 23% at the peak of the crisis when many countries are under a lockdown. These direct impacts are amplified as the shock propagates through the world economy because of the buyer-seller relations. Supply- chain spillovers are capable of amplifying the direct impact by more than two folds. Naturally, the substitutability between intermediate inputs is a major determinant of the amplification. We also study the process of economic recovery following the end of the lockdowns. Price flexibility and minor technological adaptations help in reducing the time it takes for the economy to recover. The world economy takes about one quarter to move towards the new equilibrium in the optimistic and unlikely scenario of the end of all lockdowns. Recovery time is likely to be significantly greater if partial lockdowns persist.

46 citations

Book ChapterDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, a systems-theoretic approach to the micro-macro relationship is proposed, which treats macro theory as a form of systems theory where the behavior of the system has properties that are not reducible to properties of individual elements within that system.
Abstract: Standard macro theories have the same analytical structure as their micro counterparts. Where micro theories work with equilibrium between supply and demand for particular products, macro theories work with equilibrium applied to aggregates of products. This common approach treats the micro–macro relationship as scalable, with macro variables being aggregations over micro variables. In contrast, we pursue a systems-theoretic approach to the micro–macro relationship. This relationship is not scalable and rather entails a disjunction between micro- and macro-levels of theory. While micro phenomena are still susceptible to choice-theoretic analysis, macro phenomena are products of ecological interaction and so entail emergent phenomena. Our alternative approach treats macro theory as a form of systems theory where the behavior of the system has properties that are not reducible to properties of the individual elements within that system. Besides sketching this alternative approach, we examine some of the different insights this approach offers into such topics as unemployment and stabilization.

14 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: Sunstein and Thaler as discussed by the authors argued that paternalism is sometimes inevitable and non-coercive, and that individuals do not always make "rational" decisions, and the question of whether individuals make rational decisions as judged by the axiomatic definition of neo-classical economic theory is vestigial to the ideas and policy prescriptions of classical liberal and libertarian political economy.
Abstract: Sunstein and Thaler’s proposal for ‘libertarian paternalism’ in their paper titled “Libertarian Paternalism is not an Oxymoron” (LPNO from here on) is based on the contention that paternalism is sometimes (1) inevitable and (2) non coercive, and (3) that individuals do not always make ‘rational’ decisions. The first two contentions are untrue, and the question of whether individuals make ‘rational’ decisions as judged by the axiomatic definition of neo-classical economic theory is vestigial to the ideas and policy prescriptions of classical liberal and libertarian political economy. The paper, fraught with definitional confusions and methodological difficulties, is a superior example of how correct empirical observations and laudable advancements in identifying cognitive characteristics that may be relevant to economic analysis can lead to unsound theories due to methodological deficiencies. Policy prescriptions in the long run must take an institutional form; the greatest deception of the paper lies in its omission of any discussion on such an institution, which, I believe by logical necessity would be a Platonist autocratic bureaucracy. A consistent application of libertarian paternalism is the ‘road to serfdom’.

13 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors explore extended liability for bank shareholders as a method for mitigating moral hazard in insured banks, and discuss how extended liability can be used to avoid the difficulties of both micro-and macro-prudential approaches to systemic stability.
Abstract: We explore extended liability for bank shareholders as a method for mitigating moral hazard in insured banks. The dominant approach to maintaining financial stability employs piecemeal regulations concerning specific bank behaviors; we propose this difficult practice can be sidestepped by embracing a legal environment where banks face healthier incentives. We discuss the various kinds of extended liability regimes, show how they worked historically, and address several concerns about the potential downsides of these regimes. We conclude by discussing how extended liability can be used to avoid the difficulties of both ‘microprudential’ and ‘macroprudential’ approaches to systemic stability.

13 citations


Cited by
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G. W. Smith1

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Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the potential effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the tourism industry were measured using panel structural vector auto-regression (PSVAR) on data from 1995 to 2019 in 185 countries and system dynamic modeling.

457 citations