Vladimir Popov

Bio: Vladimir Popov is an academic researcher from Central Economics and Mathematics Institute. The author has contributed to research in topics: Foreign-exchange reserves & Exchange rate. The author has an hindex of 20, co-authored 169 publications receiving 2041 citations. Previous affiliations of Vladimir Popov include United Nations & Russian Academy of Sciences.

Shock Therapy Versus Gradualism: The End Of The Debate (Explaining The Magnitude Of Transformational Recession)

Abstract: The conventional explanation for the dynamics of output during transition is associated with “good” and “bad” economic policies, in particular with the progress achieved in the liberalization, as measured by the liberalization index, and with the success or failure in macroeconomic stabilization, as measured by the rates of inflation. This paper seeks to provide alternative explanation to the differing performance during transition: the supply-side recession, which in turn is caused by reallocation of resources needed to overcome disproportions inherited from the era of central planning. It is shown that over 60% of the differences in the economic performance can in fact be explained by uneven initial conditions, such as the level of development and pre-transition disproportions in industrial structure and trade patterns.

Shock Therapy versus Gradualism Reconsidered: Lessons from Transition Economies after 15 Years of Reforms

Abstract: This paper starts by separating the transformational recession (reduction of output in most transition economies in the first half of the 1990s) from the process of economic growth (recovery from the transformational recession) in 28 transition economies (including China, Vietnam and Mongolia). It is argued that the former (the collapse of output during transition) can be best explained as adverse supply shock caused mostly by a change in relative prices after their deregulation due to distortions in industrial structure and trade patterns accumulated during the period of central planning, and by the collapse of state institutions during transition period, while the speed of liberalisation, to the extent it was endogenous, that is, determined by political economy factors, had an adverse effect on performance. In contrast, at the recovery stage the ongoing liberalisation starts to affect growth positively, whereas the impact of pre-transition distortions disappears. Institutional capacity and reasonable macroeconomic policy, however, continue to be important prerequisites for successful performance.

Accumulation of Foreign Exchange Reserves and Long Term Growth

Abstract: Cross-country regressions, reported in this paper for 1960-99 period, seem to suggest that the accumulation of foreign exchange reserves (FER) contributes to economic growth of a developing economy by increasing both the investment/GDP ratio and capital productivity. We offer the following interpretation of these stylized facts: (1) FER accumulation causes real exchange rate (RER) undervaluation that is expansionary in the short run and may have long term effects, if such devaluations are carried out periodically and unexpectedly; (2) RER undervaluation allows to take full advantages of export externality and triggers export-led growth; (3) FER build up attracts foreign direct investment because it increases the credibility of the government of a recipient country and lowers the dollar price of real assets. A three-sector model of endogenous economic growth (including a consumer good sector, investment good sector and an export trade sector) is suggested to demonstrate how undervaluation may improve social welfare. Concepts of FER accumulation trajectories and equilibrium trajectories are introduced. It is demonstrated that small udervaluation of the equilibrium exchange rate may be wealth improving.

Economic growth and income inequality

Abstract: We investigate whether income inequality affects subsequent growth in a cross-country sample for 1965-90, using the models of Barro (1997), Bleaney and Nishiyama (2002) and Sachs and Warner (1997), with negative results. We then investigate the evolution of income inequality over the same period and its correlation with growth. The dominating feature is inequality convergence across countries. This convergence has been significantly faster amongst developed countries. Growth does not appear to influence the evolution of inequality over time. Outline

Review Paper Corporate Governance in Emerging Economies: A Review of the Principal-Principal Perspective

Abstract: Instead of traditional principal-agent conflicts espoused in most research dealing with developed economies, principal-principal conflicts have been identified as a major concern of corporate governance in emerging economies. Principal-principal conflicts between controlling shareholders and minority shareholders result from concentrated ownership, extensive family ownership and control, business group structures, and weak legal protection of minority shareholders. Such principal-principal conflicts alter the dynamics of the corporate governance process and, in turn, require remedies different from those that deal with principal-agent conflicts. This article reviews and synthesizes recent research from strategy, finance, and economics on principal-principal conflicts with an emphasis on their institutional antecedents and organizational consequences. The resulting integration provides a foundation upon which future research can continue to build.