Volker G. Heinke

Bio: Volker G. Heinke is an academic researcher from University of Augsburg. The author has contributed to research in topics: Volatility smile & Bond credit rating. The author has an hindex of 1, co-authored 1 publications receiving 8 citations.

Credit spread volatility, bond ratings and the risk reduction effect of watchlistings

Abstract: This article examines the relationship between the volatility of the credit risk premium of a plain vanilla bond and its credit rating. We calculate volatilities over different time windows and test for differences in the mean volatility depending on the bond rating. We check for the influence of further factors that are theoretically relevant for the explanation of the credit spread volatility. Moreover, we check the dynamic effect of rating changes on bond spread volatility. Finally, we test whether credit watchlistings influence credit spread volatility. We confirm prior studies in that, generally, credit ratings rank the risk of bonds according to credit spread volatility. We further find that rating changes have a dynamic influence on spread volatilities. Additionally it is shown that credit watchlistings significantly reduce the volatility. Thus, watchlistings are perceived to offer valuable information. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A Markov Switching Re-evaluation of Event-Study Methodology

Abstract: This paper reconsiders event-study methodology in light of evidences showing that Cumulative Abnormal Return (CAR) can result in misleading inferences about financial market efficiency and pre(post)-event behavior. In particular, CAR can be biased downward, due to the increased volatility on the event day and within event windows. We propose the use of Markov Switching Models to capture the effect of an event on security prices. The proposed methodology is applied to a set of 45 historical series on Credit Default Swap (CDS) quotes subject to multiple credit events, such as reviews for downgrading. Since CDSs provide insurance against the default of a particular company or sovereign entity, this study checks if market anticipates reviews for downgrading and evaluates the time period the announcements lag behind the market.

Risk mitigation by institutional participants in the secondary market: Evidence from foreign Rule 144A debt market

Abstract: We study secondary market trades of debt issues by foreign firms in the U.S. under SEC Rule 144A, a unique market where the counterparties are qualified institutional buyers (QIBs). We find that even though the secondary yield spreads of foreign 144A debt issues are larger than comparable public debt issues by foreign and domestic firms in the U.S., the incremental impact of common risks – namely, credit, illiquidity, governance, and familiarity risks – on spreads are lower for foreign 144A issues compared to various control samples. Our finding is consistent with the notion that institutional participants, namely QIBs, play a specialized role in mitigating risk exposures in the foreign 144A secondary market.

Sovereign credit risk spillover

Abstract: This thesis examines cross-market correlations between means and variances in sovereign credit markets and captures the presence of any contagion effect by focusing on parallel movements between markets in the wake of the recent crisis. Furthermore, it focuses on the effect of policy interventions on the dynamics of these correlations. First, to look at the correlation between markets, we investigate the interaction between sovereign spreads and creditworthiness. Our results suggest that there are stable long-term cointegration relationships and significant short-term reactions between government CDS spreads to rating and outlook changes, with rating and outlook leading CDS spreads. After confirming the leading role of credit ratings, we further investigate the spillover effect from ratings to CDS spreads across markets and countries. We are concerned with the spillover effect of a change in the sovereign credit rating and outlook of one country on the sovereign CDS spreads of other countries. We find that rating and outlook announcements originating from different countries have a strong spillover effect across countries but not across regions, while countries’ initial credit status has limited effect on such spillover. Moreover, the US market is a strong source of global spillover to all the countries. After controlling for US factors, the international spillover effects are found to be stronger during crisis periods than in tranquil periods. In addition, credit outlook changes have a greater impact on sovereign CDS spread responses than rating change announcements, suggesting that outlook changes carry more new information. Furthermore, we are also concerned with the influences of rescue plans by the European Union (EU) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on the interdependence of sovereign credit risk, measured by CDS spreads, in the Eurozone. The study focuses on the interaction between two groups of nations, ‘cores’ (Austria, Belgium, France, Germany and the UK) and ‘PIIGS’ (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain), before and after these bailouts. We are able to control for the rating and other external influences affecting sovereign CDS spreads. There are three principal findings. (1) Before the EU interventions, the spreads of the rescued countries – Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain (PIGS) – had a strong influence on rating changes in Austria, Belgium, France, Germany and the UK (core European countries). (2) After bailout, our results underline increased interdependencies between sovereign credit risk in the EU area, especially between the rescued country and the core countries. This suggests that these bailout plans not only increase the influence of the rescued country on the development of the core nations, but also amplify the sensitivity of PIIGS to changes in the cores. (3) Different countries will vary in their financial stability and their fundamentals will differ, so they will be expected to respond differently to a bailout. Indeed, distinctive interaction behaviours across countries, related to country-specific characteristics (fiscal outlook), is found for each of the financial policy interventions. Second, to look at the correlation between variances, this study investigated correlation between 9 major EMU countries’ CDS markets during the sovereign debt crisis, and hence examined the impacts of policy interventions on these markets, using the DCC-GARCH model. The main purpose was to assess the extent to which the policy interventions influenced the dynamics of correlations in sovereign CDS markets, after controlling for international influence (US VIX), and both domestic and foreign sovereign credit rating and outlook. Our results suggest that correlations are time-varying for all the sample countries. Most of the policy interventions led to a significant increase in the pairwise correlations. Our interpretation is that the “two-way feedback” between the healthy country and the bailed-out country causes the public-to-public risk transfer. The increased debt and deficit partly result from assisting other troubled nations. Through policy interventions, any deterioration in the sovereign creditworthiness of the healthy countries could transmit back to the bailed-out countries. Moreover, the estimation result suggests that policy interventions, rather than VIX and credit rating/outlook, play the most direct and significant role in shaping the structure of dynamic correlation in the EMU markets.