Preface to the Princeton Landmarks in Biology Edition vii Preface xi Symbols Used xiii 1. The Importance of Islands 3 2. Area and Number of Speicies 8 3. Further Explanations of the Area-Diversity Pattern 19 4. The Strategy of Colonization 68 5. Invasibility and the Variable Niche 94 6. Stepping Stones and Biotic Exchange 123 7. Evolutionary Changes Following Colonization 145 8. Prospect 181 Glossary 185 References 193 Index 201

The Theory of Island Biogeography

Causal attribution of recent biological trends to climate change is complicated because non-climatic influences dominate local, short-term biological changes. Any underlying signal from climate change is likely to be revealed by analyses that seek systematic trends across diverse species and geographic regions; however, debates within the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reveal several definitions of a 'systematic trend'. Here, we explore these differences, apply diverse analyses to more than 1,700 species, and show that recent biological trends match climate change predictions. Global meta-analyses documented significant range shifts averaging 6.1 km per decade towards the poles (or metres per decade upward), and significant mean advancement of spring events by 2.3 days per decade. We define a diagnostic fingerprint of temporal and spatial 'sign-switching' responses uniquely predicted by twentieth century climate trends. Among appropriate long-term/large-scale/multi-species data sets, this diagnostic fingerprint was found for 279 species. This suite of analyses generates 'very high confidence' (as laid down by the IPCC) that climate change is already affecting living systems.

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A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems

There is now ample evidence of the ecological impacts of recent climate change, from polar terrestrial to tropical marine environments. The responses of both flora and fauna span an array of ecosystems and organizational hierarchies, from the species to the community levels. Despite continued uncertainty as to community and ecosystem trajectories under global change, our review exposes a coherent pattern of ecological change across systems. Although we are only at an early stage in the projected trends of global warming, ecological responses to recent climate change are already clearly visible.

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Ecological responses to recent climate change.

Drafting Authors: Neil Adger, Pramod Aggarwal, Shardul Agrawala, Joseph Alcamo, Abdelkader Allali, Oleg Anisimov, Nigel Arnell, Michel Boko, Osvaldo Canziani, Timothy Carter, Gino Casassa, Ulisses Confalonieri, Rex Victor Cruz, Edmundo de Alba Alcaraz, William Easterling, Christopher Field, Andreas Fischlin, Blair Fitzharris, Carlos Gay García, Clair Hanson, Hideo Harasawa, Kevin Hennessy, Saleemul Huq, Roger Jones, Lucka Kajfež Bogataj, David Karoly, Richard Klein, Zbigniew Kundzewicz, Murari Lal, Rodel Lasco, Geoff Love, Xianfu Lu, Graciela Magrín, Luis José Mata, Roger McLean, Bettina Menne, Guy Midgley, Nobuo Mimura, Monirul Qader Mirza, José Moreno, Linda Mortsch, Isabelle Niang-Diop, Robert Nicholls, Béla Nováky, Leonard Nurse, Anthony Nyong, Michael Oppenheimer, Jean Palutikof, Martin Parry, Anand Patwardhan, Patricia Romero Lankao, Cynthia Rosenzweig, Stephen Schneider, Serguei Semenov, Joel Smith, John Stone, Jean-Pascal van Ypersele, David Vaughan, Coleen Vogel, Thomas Wilbanks, Poh Poh Wong, Shaohong Wu, Gary Yohe

Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Ecological changes in the phenology and distribution of plants and animals are occurring in all well-studied marine, freshwater, and terrestrial groups These observed changes are heavily biased in the directions predicted from global warming and have been linked to local or regional climate change through correlations between climate and biological variation, field and laboratory experiments, and physiological research Range-restricted species, particularly polar and mountaintop species, show severe range contractions and have been the first groups in which entire species have gone extinct due to recent climate change Tropical coral reefs and amphibians have been most negatively affected Predator-prey and plant-insect interactions have been disrupted when interacting species have responded differently to warming Evolutionary adaptations to warmer conditions have occurred in the interiors of species’ ranges, and resource use and dispersal have evolved rapidly at expanding range margins Observed genetic shifts modulate local effects of climate change, but there is little evidence that they will mitigate negative effects at the species level

https://www.fws.gov/southwest/es/documents/R2ES/LitCited/LPC_2012/Parmesan_2006.pdf

Ecological and Evolutionary Responses to Recent Climate Change

Mean global temperatures have risen this century, and further warming is predicted to continue for the next 50-100 years(1-3) Some migratory species can respond rapidly to yearly climate variation ...

Poleward shifts in geographical ranges of butterfly species associated with regional warming

A systematic checklist of the butterflies of Melanesia, Micronesia and Polynesia is presented. A significant number of previously unpublished island records were found in major museum collections in the UK, Australia and the USA. Aspects of butterfly distribution, authorship of names, and taxonomy are addressed, and sources for about 2,200 published butterfly names are incorporated in a comprehensive bibliography of Pacific butterflies. Combined with recent publications dealing with specific areas, such as Papua New Guinea, a working systematic checklist of Pacific Region butterflies is available for the first time.

A checklist of the butterflies of Melanesia, Micronesia, Polynesia and some adjacent areas

Colour pattern and size variation in the widespread Indo-Pacific Meadow Argus butterfly, Junonia villida (Fabricius, 1787), are reviewed based largely on examination of c. 1500 museum specimens from across its entire geographical range. Including villida, 14 available species-group names for this taxon are documented. The butterfly is recorded from some 200 islands or island groups. Larvae are reported to feed on 24 genera of flowering plants from 12 families. While the suggestion of H.T.G. Watkins that geographical variation in villida can be summarized by four segregates (eastern Pacific, Maluku–Papuan, Sunda–Australian, Chagos Islands) is found to have some validity, there are numerous exceptions. Based on a discussion of biological factors that may be responsible for the pattern of variation observed, it is concluded that, with the exception of J. villida chagoensis, a geographical isolate with a recognisable and constant phenotype not seen in any other population, any attempt at further formal divisi...

Colour and size variation in Junonia villida (Lepidoptera, Nymphalidae): subspecies or phenotypic plasticity?

Further investigations into Melitaea telona Fruhstorfer, 1908 (= ogygia Fruhstorfer, 1908; = emipunica Verity, 1919) (Lepidoptera: Nymphalidae), with observations on biology and distribution

Since BCS Warren’s seminal Monograph of the circumpolar satyrine butterfly genus Erebia Dalman, 1816, was published in 1936, more than 320 new names and some 200 papers dealing wholly or in large part with the genus have been published. A modern checklist of more than 1,300 names proposed for butterflies of the genus Erebia (sensu stricto), all of which have been checked at source, is presented together with the source publication and type locality (TL). Also presented is a bibliography of 1,200 published items concerning the genus. The checklist covers the period 1758–2006; such names proposed and papers published as have been noted after the 31st of December 2006 are also included.

W. John Tennent

Papers

Poleward shifts in geographical ranges of butterfly species associated with regional warming

A checklist of the butterflies of Melanesia, Micronesia, Polynesia and some adjacent areas

Colour and size variation in Junonia villida (Lepidoptera, Nymphalidae): subspecies or phenotypic plasticity?

Further investigations into Melitaea telona Fruhstorfer, 1908 (= ogygia Fruhstorfer, 1908; = emipunica Verity, 1919) (Lepidoptera: Nymphalidae), with observations on biology and distribution

A checklist of the satyrine genus Erebia (Lepidoptera) (1758–2006)