Walter P. Falcon

Bio: Walter P. Falcon is an academic researcher from Stanford University. The author has contributed to research in topics: Food security & Agriculture. The author has an hindex of 27, co-authored 68 publications receiving 6167 citations. Previous affiliations of Walter P. Falcon include University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science & University of California, Berkeley.

Prioritizing Climate Change Adaptation Needs for Food Security in 2030

Abstract: Investments aimed at improving agricultural adaptation to climate change inevitably favor some crops and regions over others. An analysis of climate risks for crops in 12 food-insecure regions was conducted to identify adaptation priorities, based on statistical crop models and climate projections for 2030 from 20 general circulation models. Results indicate South Asia and Southern Africa as two regions that, without sufficient adaptation measures, will likely suffer negative impacts on several crops that are important to large food-insecure human populations. We also find that uncertainties vary widely by crop, and therefore priorities will depend on the risk attitudes of investment institutions.

Losing the Links Between Livestock and Land

Abstract: Global meat production is becoming increasingly industrialized, spatially concentrated, and geographically detached from the agricultural land base. This Policy Forum reviews the process of livestock industrialization and globalization, and its consequences for water, nitrogen, and species-rich habitats in meat- and feed-producing regions often vastly separated in space. It argues that pricing and other policy mechanisms which reflect social costs of resource use and ecological change are needed to re-couple livestock and land in producer countries, drawing on examples from Europe and the United States. It also argues that consumers can play an important role in setting a sustainable course.

The ripple effect biofuels, food security, and the environment.

Abstract: (2007). The Ripple Effect: Biofuels, Food Security, and the Environment. Environment: Science and Policy for Sustainable Development: Vol. 49, No. 9, pp. 30-43.

Assessing risks of climate variability and climate change for Indonesian rice agriculture.

Abstract: El Nino events typically lead to delayed rainfall and decreased rice planting in Indonesia's main rice-growing regions, thus prolonging the hungry season and increasing the risk of annual rice deficits. Here we use a risk assessment framework to examine the potential impact of El Nino events and natural variability on rice agriculture in 2050 under conditions of climate change, with a focus on two main rice-producing areas: Java and Bali. We select a 30-day delay in monsoon onset as a threshold beyond which significant impact on the country's rice economy is likely to occur. To project the future probability of monsoon delay and changes in the annual cycle of rainfall, we use output from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change AR4 suite of climate models, forced by increasing greenhouse gases, and scale it to the regional level by using empirical downscaling models. Our results reveal a marked increase in the probability of a 30-day delay in monsoon onset in 2050, as a result of changes in the mean climate, from 9–18% today (depending on the region) to 30–40% at the upper tail of the distribution. Predictions of the annual cycle of precipitation suggest an increase in precipitation later in the crop year (April–June) of ≈10% but a substantial decrease (up to 75% at the tail) in precipitation later in the dry season (July–September). These results indicate a need for adaptation strategies in Indonesian rice agriculture, including increased investments in water storage, drought-tolerant crops, crop diversification, and early warning systems.

Transformation of the Nitrogen Cycle: Recent Trends, Questions, and Potential Solutions

Abstract: Humans continue to transform the global nitrogen cycle at a record pace, reflecting an increased combustion of fossil fuels, growing demand for nitrogen in agriculture and industry, and pervasive inefficiencies in its use. Much anthropogenic nitrogen is lost to air, water, and land to cause a cascade of environmental and human health problems. Simultaneously, food production in some parts of the world is nitrogen-deficient, highlighting inequities in the distribution of nitrogen-containing fertilizers. Optimizing the need for a key human resource while minimizing its negative consequences requires an integrated interdisciplinary approach and the development of strategies to decrease nitrogen-containing waste.

Adoption of agricultural innovation in developing countries : a survey (revised)

Abstract: This paper is a revised version of Staff Working Paper 444 It reviews various studies which have provided a description of and possible explanation to patterns of innovation adoption in the agricultural sector It therefore covers both empirical and theoretical studies The discussion highlights the diversity in observed patterns among various farmers' classes as well as differences in results from different studies in different socio-economic environments, and reviews the attempts to rationalize such findings Special attention is given to the methodologies which are commonly used in studies of innovation adoption, and suggestions for improvements of such work through the use of appropriate economometric methods are provided The diversity of experiences with different innovations in different geographical and socio-cultural environments suggest that studies of adoption patterns should provide detailed information on attributes of the institutional, social and cultural setting and their interactions with economic factors These may be an important element in explaining conflicting experiences

Adoption of agricultural innovations in developing countries: a survey

Abstract: This paper reviews various studies which have provided a description and possible explanation to patterns of innovation adoption in the agricultural sector. The survey points out that the tendency of many studies to consider innovation adoption in dichotomous terms (adoption/nonadoption) may not be appropriate in many cases where the actual decisions are defined over a more continuous range. More attention needs to be given to the socio-cultural and institutional environment in area studies so that their interrelation with economic factors affecting adoption can be inferred. The presence of several interrelated innovations is another aspect that needs to be considered more carefully in future research, since a number of simultaneous decisions may be involved. Furthermore, the possibility of regular sequential patterns in adopting components of a new technological package should be specifically addressed in future studies. Finally, the impact of differential adoption rates on land holding distribution merits attention in future research.

Agricultural Intensification and Ecosystem Properties

Abstract: Expansion and intensification of cultivation are among the predominant global changes of this century. Intensification of agriculture by use of high-yielding crop varieties, fertilization, irrigation, and pesticides has contributed substantially to the tremendous increases in food production over the past 50 years. Land conversion and intensification, however, also alter the biotic interactions and patterns of resource availability in ecosystems and can have serious local, regional, and global environmental consequences. The use of ecologically based management strategies can increase the sustainability of agricultural production while reducing off-site consequences.