Warren L. Prell

Bio: Warren L. Prell is an academic researcher from Brown University. The author has contributed to research in topics: Monsoon & Glacial period. The author has an hindex of 56, co-authored 113 publications receiving 17471 citations. Previous affiliations of Warren L. Prell include Columbia University & Oregon State University.

Evolution of Asian monsoons and phased uplift of the Himalaya–Tibetan plateau since Late Miocene times

Abstract: The climates of Asia are affected significantly by the extent and height of the Himalayan mountains and the Tibetan plateau1,2,3,4 Uplift of this region began about 50 Myr ago, and further significant increases in altitude of the Tibetan plateau are thought to have occurred about 10–8 Myr ago4,5, or more recently However, the climatic consequences of this uplift remain unclear Here we use records of aeolian sediments from China6,7 and marine sediments from the Indian8,9,10 and North Pacific oceans11 to identify three stages of evolution of Asian climates: first, enhanced aridity in the Asian interior and onset of the Indian and east Asian monsoons, about 9–8 Myr ago; next, continued intensification of the east Asian summer and winter monsoons, together with increased dust transport to the North Pacific Ocean11, about 36–26 Myr ago; and last, increased variability and possible weakening of the Indian and east Asian summer monsoons and continued strengthening of the east Asian winter monsoon since about 26 Myr ago The results of a numerical climate-model experiment, using idealized stepwise increases of mountain–plateau elevation, support the argument that the stages in evolution of Asian monsoons are linked to phases of Himalaya–Tibetan plateau uplift and to Northern Hemisphere glaciation

On the Structure and Origin of Major Glaciation Cycles 1. Linear Responses to Milankovitch Forcing

Abstract: Time series of ocean properties provide a measure of global ice volume and monitor key features of the wind-driven and density-driven circulations over the past 400,000 years. Cycles with periods near 23,000, 41,000, and 100,000 years dominate this climatic narrative. When the narrative is examined in a geographic array of time series, the phase of each climatic oscillation is seen to progress through the system in essentially the same geographic sequence in all three cycles. We argue that the 23,000- and 41,000-year cycles of glaciation are continuous, linear responses to orbitally driven changes in the Arctic radiation budget; and we use the phase progression in each climatic cycle to identify the main pathways along which the initial, local responses to radiation are propagated by the atmosphere and ocean. Early in this progression, deep waters of the Southern Ocean appear to act as a carbon trap. To stimulate new observations and modeling efforts, we offer a process model that gives a synoptic view of climate at the four end-member states needed to describe the system's evolution, and we propose a dynamic system model that explains the phase progression along causal pathways by specifying inertial constants in a chain of four subsystems. “Solutions to problems involving systems of such complexity are not born full grown like Athena from the head of Zeus. Rather they evolve slowly, in stages, each of which requires a pause to examine data at great lengths in order to guarantee a sure footing and to properly choose the next step.” —Victor P. Starr

On the Structure and Origin of Major Glaciation Cycles .2. the 100,000-year Cycle

Abstract: Climate over the past million years has been dominated by glaciation cycles with periods near 23,000, 41,000, and 100,000 years. In a linear version of the Milankovitch theory, the two shorter cycles can be explained as responses to insolation cycles driven by precession and obliquity. But the 100,000-year radiation cycle (arising from eccentricity variation) is much too small in amplitude and too late in phase to produce the corresponding climate cycle by direct forcing. We present phase observations showing that the geographic progression of local responses over the 100,000-year cycle is similar to the progression in the other two cycles, implying that a similar set of internal climatic mechanisms operates in all three. But the phase sequence in the 100,000-year cycle requires a source of climatic inertia having a time constant (similar to 15,000 years) much larger than the other cycles (similar to 5,000 years). Our conceptual model identifies massive northern hemisphere ice sheets as this larger inertial source. When these ice sheets, forced by precession and obliquity, exceed a critical size, they cease responding as linear Milankovitch slaves and drive atmospheric and oceanic responses that mimic the externally forced responses. In our model, the coupled system acts as a nonlinear amplifier that is particularly sensitive to eccentricity-driven modulations in the 23,000-year sea level cycle. During an interval when sea level is forced upward from a major low stand by a Milankovitch response acting either alone or in combination with an internally driven, higher-frequency process, ice sheets grounded on continental shelves become unstable, mass wasting accelerates, and the resulting deglaciation sets the phase of one wave in the train of 100,000-year oscillations. Whether a glacier or ice sheet influences the climate depends very much on the scale....The interesting aspect is that an effect on the local climate can still make an ice mass grow larger and larger, thereby gradually increasing its radius of influence.

Monsoon variability over the past 150,000 years

Abstract: Paleoclimatic records adjacent to India and Africa show major variability that is related to large fluctuations in the wind and precipitation fields associated with monsoonal circulations. Much of the variability occurs at orbital periodicities, and all of the paleoclimatic time series show four monsoon maxima that occur during interglacial conditions and coincide with precession maxima and maxima of northern hemisphere summer radiation. During glacial conditions, paleoclimatic records are less distinct and show more individual variability. To identify the processes causing changes in monsoon circulation, we used 13 general circulation model (National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) community climate model (CCM)) simulations that incorporate a large range of solar radiation and surface (modern to full glacial) boundary conditions. The spatial patterns of climate variables and their zonal and regional averages revealed that under interglacial conditions increased northern hemisphere solar radiation produced a larger land-ocean pressure gradient, stronger winds, and greater precipitation over southern Asia and North Africa. Under glacial conditions, however, the monsoon is weakened in southern Asia (decreased winds and precipitation), but precipitation is increased in the equatorial west Indian Ocean and equatorial North Africa. Sensitivity coefficients are used to estimate the change in model-simulated precipitation (ΔP) relative to the changes in northern hemisphere summer radiation (ΔS) and glacial age boundary conditions (ΔGBC); the coefficients are then used with time series of ΔS and ΔGBC to simulate past precipitation (ΔP) for a specific area. Simulated records of ΔP for southern Asia and equatorial North Africa over the past 150,000 years show four monsoon maxima that are related to solar radiation maxima and are observed in the paleoclimatic data. The simulations also indicate that southern Asia is drier than today (weaker monsoon) for the period with extensive glacial boundary conditions, especially between 75,000 and 15,000 years ago. Conversely, equatorial North Africa is simulated to be wetter than today during glacial conditions. Both areas show stronger monsoons with increasing solar radiation during interglacial conditions. The agreement of simulated and observed paleoclimatic time series suggests that both orbitally produced solar radiation changes and glacial age boundary condition changes are necessary to explain the major regional features of monsoon climates at millenial or longer time scales. For southern Asia and equatorial North Africa the influence of these two factors is approximately additive.

Sensitivity of the Indian monsoon to forcing parameters and implications for its evolution

Abstract: General-circulation-model simulations used to estimate the sensitivity of the Indian monsoon to changes in orbital parameters, the orography of Tibet—Himalaya, atmospheric C02 concentration and the extent of glacial-age surface boundary conditions show that increased elevations and increased summer solar radiation are most effective in strengthening the monsoon. Strong monsoons (similar to today's) can be induced by strong solar forcing only when the elevation is at least half that of today. These conditions may have been attained in the late Miocene.

Trends, Rhythms, and Aberrations in Global Climate 65 Ma to Present

Abstract: Since 65 million years ago (Ma), Earth's climate has undergone a significant and complex evolution, the finer details of which are now coming to light through investigations of deep-sea sediment cores. This evolution includes gradual trends of warming and cooling driven by tectonic processes on time scales of 10(5) to 10(7) years, rhythmic or periodic cycles driven by orbital processes with 10(4)- to 10(6)-year cyclicity, and rare rapid aberrant shifts and extreme climate transients with durations of 10(3) to 10(5) years. Here, recent progress in defining the evolution of global climate over the Cenozoic Era is reviewed. We focus primarily on the periodic and anomalous components of variability over the early portion of this era, as constrained by the latest generation of deep-sea isotope records. We also consider how this improved perspective has led to the recognition of previously unforeseen mechanisms for altering climate.

A Pliocene-Pleistocene stack of 57 globally distributed benthic δ18O records

Abstract: [1] We present a 53-Myr stack (the “LR04” stack) of benthic δ18O records from 57 globally distributed sites aligned by an automated graphic correlation algorithm This is the first benthic δ18O stack composed of more than three records to extend beyond 850 ka, and we use its improved signal quality to identify 24 new marine isotope stages in the early Pliocene We also present a new LR04 age model for the Pliocene-Pleistocene derived from tuning the δ18O stack to a simple ice model based on 21 June insolation at 65°N Stacked sedimentation rates provide additional age model constraints to prevent overtuning Despite a conservative tuning strategy, the LR04 benthic stack exhibits significant coherency with insolation in the obliquity band throughout the entire 53 Myr and in the precession band for more than half of the record The LR04 stack contains significantly more variance in benthic δ18O than previously published stacks of the late Pleistocene as the result of higher-resolution records, a better alignment technique, and a greater percentage of records from the Atlantic Finally, the relative phases of the stack's 41- and 23-kyr components suggest that the precession component of δ18O from 27–16 Ma is primarily a deep-water temperature signal and that the phase of δ18O precession response changed suddenly at 16 Ma

Climate and atmospheric history of the past 420,000 years from the Vostok ice core, Antarctica

Abstract: The recent completion of drilling at Vostok station in East Antarctica has allowed the extension of the ice record of atmospheric composition and climate to the past four glacial–interglacial cycles. The succession of changes through each climate cycle and termination was similar, and atmospheric and climate properties oscillated between stable bounds. Interglacial periods differed in temporal evolution and duration. Atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and methane correlate well with Antarctic air-temperature throughout the record. Present-day atmospheric burdens of these two important greenhouse gases seem to have been unprecedented during the past 420,000 years.

Climate and atmospheric history of the past 420,000 years from the Vostok ice core, Antarctica

Abstract: The recent completion of drilling at Vostok station in East Antarctica has allowed the extension of the ice record of atmospheric composition and climate to the past four glacial–interglacial cycles. The succession of changes through each climate cycle and termination was similar, and atmospheric and climate properties oscillated between stable bounds. Interglacial periods differed in temporal evolution and duration. Atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and methane correlate well with Antarctic air-temperature throughout the record. Present-day atmospheric burdens of these two important greenhouse gases seem to have been unprecedented during the past 420,000 years.

Supporting Online Material for Spreading Dead Zones and Consequences for Marine Ecosystems

Abstract: Dead zones in the coastal oceans have spread exponentially since the 1960s and have serious consequences for ecosystem functioning. The formation of dead zones has been exacerbated by the increase in primary production and consequent worldwide coastal eutrophication fueled by riverine runoff of fertilizers and the burning of fossil fuels. Enhanced primary production results in an accumulation of particulate organic matter, which encourages microbial activity and the consumption of dissolved oxygen in bottom waters. Dead zones have now been reported from more than 400 systems, affecting a total area of more than 245,000 square kilometers, and are probably a key stressor on marine ecosystems.