Warwick J. McKibbin

Bio: Warwick J. McKibbin is an academic researcher from Australian National University. The author has contributed to research in topics: World economy & General equilibrium theory. The author has an hindex of 39, co-authored 305 publications receiving 8284 citations. Previous affiliations of Warwick J. McKibbin include Singapore Management University & Monash University.

The economic impact of COVID-19

Abstract: The outbreak of coronavirus named COVID-19 has disrupted the Chinese economy and is spreading globally. The evolution of the disease and its economic impact is highly uncertain which makes it difficult for policymakers to formulate an appropriate macroeconomic policy response. In order to better understand possible economic outcomes, this paper explores seven different scenarios of how COVID-19 might evolve in the coming year using a modelling technique developed by Lee and McKibbin (2003) and extended by McKibbin and Sidorenko (2006). It examines the impacts of different scenarios on macroeconomic outcomes and financial markets in a global hybrid DSGE/CGE general equilibrium model. The scenarios in this paper demonstrate that even a contained outbreak could significantly impact the global economy in the short run. These scenarios demonstrate the scale of costs that might be avoided by greater investment in public health systems in all economies but particularly in less developed economies where health care systems are less developed and popultion density is high.

The Role of Economics in Climate Change Policy

Abstract: Many policy problems have frustratingly long histories of inefficient regulation that can be difficult or impossible to reverse, even where large efficiency gains might be had from doing so. Climate change is an exception, however, because little real action has been undertaken to date. It presents an unusual opportunity for an efficient economic policy to be employed right from the beginning. However, the opportunity could easily be lost. Ongoing negotiations conducted under the auspices of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change have so far produced the Kyoto Protocol, a deeply flawed agreement that manages to be both economically inefficient and politically impractical. In this article, we examine the key economic characteristics of climate change and argue that economic theory provides good guidance on the design of an efficient and politically realistic policy. Because climate change involves vast uncertainties and has potentially enormous distributional effects, neither of the standard market-based environmental policy instruments is a viable approach: a tradable permit system would be inefficient, and an emissions tax would be politically unrealistic. However, a hybrid policy, combining the best features of the two, would be an efficient and practical approach. We then compare our hybrid proposal to the Kyoto Protocol and argue that it overcomes the Protocol’s shortcomings.

The global macroeconomic impacts of COVID-19: Seven scenarios

Abstract: The outbreak of coronavirus named COVID-19 has disrupted the Chinese economy and is spreading globally. The evolution of the disease and its economic impact is highly uncertain which makes it difficult for policymakers to formulate an appropriate macroeconomic policy response. In order to better understand possible economic outcomes, this paper explores seven different scenarios of how COVID-19 might evolve in the coming year using a modelling technique developed by Lee and McKibbin (2003) and extended by McKibbin and Sidorenko (2006). It examines the impacts of different scenarios on macroeconomic outcomes and financial markets in a global hybrid DSGE/CGE general equilibrium model.The scenarios in this paper demonstrate that even a contained outbreak could significantly impact the global economy in the short run. These scenarios demonstrate the scale of costs that might be avoided by greater investment in public health systems in all economies but particularly in less developed economies where health care systems are less developed and popultion density is high.

The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective

Abstract: This paper reviews the recent literature on monetary policy rules. To organize the discussion, we exposit the monetary policy design problem within a simple baseline theoretical framework. We then consider the implications of adding various real word complications. We concentrate on developing results that are robust across a reasonable variety of competing macroeconomic frameworks. Among other things, we show that the optimal policy implicitly incorporates inflation targeting. We also characterize the gains from making credible commitments to fight inflation and consider the implications of frictions such as imperfect information and model uncertainty. Finally, we assess how proposed simple rules, such as the Taylor rule, square with the principles for optimal policy that we describe. We use this same metric to evaluate the recent course of U.S. monetary policy.

The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective

Abstract: The paper reviews the recent literature on monetary policy rules. We exposit the monetary policy design problem within a simple baseline theoretical framework. We then consider the implications of adding various real world complications. Among other things, we show that the optimal policy implicitly incorporates inflation targeting. We also characterize the gains from making a credible commitment to fight inflation. In contrast to conventional wisdom, we show that gains from commitment may emerge even if the central bank is not trying to inadvisedly push output above its natural level. We also consider the implications of frictions such as imperfect information.