Geografiska annaler. Series A, Physical geography

Global warming-induced melting and thawing of the cryosphere are severely altering the volume and timing of water supplied from High Mountain Asia, adversely affecting downstream food and energy systems that are relied on by billions of people. The construction of more reservoirs designed to regulate streamflow and produce hydropower is a critical part of strategies for adapting to these changes. However, these projects are vulnerable to a complex set of interacting processes that are destabilizing landscapes throughout the region. Ranging in severity and the pace of change, these processes include glacial retreat and detachments, permafrost thaw and associated landslides, rock–ice avalanches, debris flows and outburst floods from glacial lakes and landslide-dammed lakes. The result is large amounts of sediment being mobilized that can fill up reservoirs, cause dam failure and degrade power turbines. Here we recommend forward-looking design and maintenance measures and sustainable sediment management solutions that can help transition towards climate change-resilient dams and reservoirs in High Mountain Asia, in large part based on improved monitoring and prediction of compound and cascading hazards. Climate change is exacerbating geohazards in High Mountain Asia that pose a growing risk to hydropower and water infrastructure across the region. 

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High Mountain Asia hydropower systems threatened by climate-driven landscape instability

Bedrock overdeepenings exposed by continued glacial retreat can store precipitation and meltwater, potentially leading to the formation of new proglacial lakes. These lakes may pose threats of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) in high mountain areas, particularly if new lakes form in geomorphological setups prone to triggering events such as landslides or moraine collapses. We present the first complete inventory for future glacial lakes in High Mountain Asia by computing the subglacial bedrock for ~100 000 glaciers and estimating overdeepening area, volume and impact hazard for the larger potential lakes. We detect 25 285 overdeepenings larger than 104 m2 with a volume of 99.1 ± 28.6 km3 covering an area of 2683 ± 773.8 km2. For the 2700 overdeepenings larger than 105 m2, we assess the lake predisposition for mass-movement impacts that could trigger a GLOF by estimating the hazard of material detaching from surrounding slopes. Our findings indicate a shift in lake area, volume and GLOF hazard from the southwestern Himalayan region toward the Karakoram. The results of this study can be used for anticipating emerging threats and potentials connected to glacial lakes and as a basis for further studies at suspected GLOF hazard hotspots.

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Future glacial lakes in High Mountain Asia: an inventory and assessment of hazard potential from surrounding slopes

In this study, we present a first regional assessment of glacial lake distribution and evolution in the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH). Seven sites have been selected between Bhutan and Afghanistan, to capture the climatic variability along the 2000-km long mountain range. For each site, glacial lakes have been mapped with LANDSAT satellite imagery acquired in 1990, 2000 and 2009, using an automatic classification. In the East (India, Nepal and Bhutan), glacial lakes are bigger and more numerous than in the West (Pakistan, Afghanistan), and have grown continuously between 1990 and 2009 by 20% to 65%. On the other hand, during the same period, the glacial lake coverage has shrunk in the Hindu Kush (−50%) and the Karakorum (−30%). This east/west pattern of lake changes seems in agreement with sparse glaciological measurements that suggest less (or even no) ice loss in the western part of the HKH.

Contrasted evolution of glacial lakes along the Hindu-Kush Himalaya mountain range between 1990 and 2009

Abstract. Accurate estimates of regional ice thickness, which are generally produced by ice-thickness inversion models, are crucial for assessments of available freshwater resources and sea level rise. A digital elevation model (DEM) derived from surface topography of glaciers is a primary data source for such models. However, the scarce in situ measurements of glacier surface elevation limit the evaluation of DEM uncertainty. Hence the influence of DEM uncertainty on ice-thickness modeling remains unclear over the glacierized area of the Tibetan Plateau (TP). Here, we examine the performance of six widely used and mainly global-scale DEMs: AW3D30 (ALOS – Advanced Land Observing Satellite – World 3D – 30 m; 30 m), SRTM-GL1 (Shuttle Radar Topography Mission Global 1 arc second; 30 m), NASADEM (NASA Digital Elevation Model; 30 m), TanDEM-X (TerraSAR-X add-on for Digital Elevation Measurement, synthetic-aperture radar; 90 m), SRTM v4.1 (Shuttle Radar Topography Mission; 90 m), and MERIT (Multi-Error-Removed Improved-Terrain; 90 m) over the glacierized TP by comparison with ICESat-2 (Ice, Cloud and land Elevation Satellite) laser altimetry data while considering the effects of glacier dynamics, terrain factors, and DEM misregistration. The results reveal NASADEM to be the best performer in vertical accuracy, with a small mean error (ME) of 0.9 m and a root mean squared error (RMSE) of 12.6 m, followed by AW3D30 (2.6 m ME and 11.3 m RMSE). TanDEM-X also performs well (0.1 m ME and 15.1 m RMSE) but suffers from serious errors and outliers on steep slopes. SRTM-based DEMs (SRTM-GL1, SRTM v4.1, and MERIT) (13.5–17.0 m RMSE) had an inferior performance to NASADEM. Errors in the six DEMs increase from the south-facing to the north-facing aspect and become larger with increasing slope. Misregistration of the six DEMs relative to the ICESat-2 footprint in most glacier areas is small (less than one grid spacing). In a next step, the influence of six DEMs on four ice-thickness inversion models – GlabTop2 (Glacier bed Topography), Open Global Glacier Model (OGGM), Huss–Farinotti (HF), and Ice Thickness Inversion Based on Velocity (ITIBOV) – is intercompared. The results show that GlabTop2 is sensitive to the accuracy of both elevation and slope, while OGGM and HF are less sensitive to DEM quality and resolution, and ITIBOV is the most sensitive to slope accuracy. NASADEM is the best choice for ice-thickness estimates over the whole TP.


/pdf/towards-ice-thickness-inversion-an-evaluation-of-global-10yh3r2j.pdf

Towards ice-thickness inversion: an evaluation of global digital elevation models (DEMs) in the glacierized Tibetan Plateau

In High Mountain Asia (HMA), rising temperatures and retreating glaciers are leading to the formation of new glacial lakes and the expansion of existing ones. The sudden release of water from such lakes can lead to devastating glacial lake outburst floods (GLOF) threatening people and infrastructure for many kilometers downstream. Therefore, information on future glacial lakes, e.g., their location, area and volume as well as the timing of their development, is vital for sustainable development of settlements and infrastructures. In this study, we present comprehensive estimates for future glacial lake development in HMA with unprecedented temporal resolution. We rely on an ensemble of fifteen global climate models using the newest CMIP6 data and employ a set of four Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios. With the Open Global Glacier Model (OGGM), we use a modeling framework that explicitly simulates glacier dynamics in order to model glacier change until 2100 and estimate the formation period for each of the 2,700 largest future glacial lakes (>0.1 km2) in HMA. We estimate the glacial lake area in the entire region to grow by 474 ± 121 km2 for SSP126 and 833 ± 148 km2 for SSP585. Following recent estimates of currently existing glacial lakes (>0.1 km2), this would constitute an increase in lake area of ∼120–∼210% in 2100 compared to 2018. The lake volume is expected to increase by 22.8 ± 6.7 km3 for SSP126 and 39.7 ± 7.7 km3 for SSP585. This range includes a drastic tenfold increase in lake volume, from estimated 3.9 km3 in 2018 to 43.6 ± 7.7 km3 in 2100. However, there is a considerable spread between total and relative increase in glacial lake area and volume for different sub-regions of High Mountain Asia. As both, lake area and lake volume, could to lead to an increase in GLOF risk, the results emphasize the urgent need for more localized, in-depth studies at especially vulnerable locations in order to enable local communities to adapt to emerging challenges, to implement risk minimization measures, and to improve sustainable development in High Mountain Asia.

Wilhelm Furian

Papers

Future glacial lakes in High Mountain Asia: an inventory and assessment of hazard potential from surrounding slopes

Projected 21st-Century Glacial Lake Evolution in High Mountain Asia

cryotools/subglacial-overdeepenings: An inventory of future glacial lakes in High Mountain Asia in shapefile format, v1.0