William L. Grose

Bio: William L. Grose is an academic researcher from Langley Research Center. The author has contributed to research in topics: Stratosphere & Polar vortex. The author has an hindex of 21, co-authored 49 publications receiving 1546 citations.

Evaluation and intercomparison of global atmospheric transport models using 222Rn and other short-lived tracers

Abstract: Simulations of 222Rn and other short-lived tracers are used to evaluate and intercompare the representations of convective and synoptic processes in 20 global atmospheric transport models. Results show that most established three-dimensional models simulate vertical mixing in the troposphere to within the constraints offered by the observed mean 222Rn concentrations and that subgrid parameterization of convection is essential for this purpose. However, none of the models captures the observed variability of 222Rn concentrations in the upper troposphere, and none reproduces the high 222Rn concentrations measured at 200 hPa over Hawaii. The established three-dimensional models reproduce the frequency and magnitude of high-222Rn episodes observed at Crozet Island in the Indian Ocean, demonstrating that they can resolve the synoptic-scale transport of continental plumes with no significant numerical diffusion. Large differences between models are found in the rates of meridional transport in the upper troposphere (interhemispheric exchange, exchange between tropics and high latitudes). The four two-dimensional models which participated in the intercomparison tend to underestimate the rate of vertical transport from the lower to the upper troposphere but show concentrations of 222Rn in the lower troposphere that are comparable to the zonal mean values in the three-dimensional models.

The GCM–Reality Intercomparison Project for SPARC (GRIPS): Scientific Issues and Initial Results

Abstract: To investigate the effects of the middle atmosphere on climate, the World Climate Research Programme is supporting the project "Stratospheric Processes and their Role in Climate" (SPARC). A central theme of SPARC, to examine model simulations of the coupled troposphere—middle atmosphere system, is being performed through the initiative called GRIPS (GCM—Reality Intercomparison Project for SPARC). In this paper, an overview of the objectives of GRIPS is given. Initial activities include an assessment of the performance of middle atmosphere climate models, and preliminary results from this evaluation are presented here. It is shown that although all 13 models evaluated represent most major features of the mean atmospheric state, there are deficiencies in the magnitude and location of the features, which cannot easily be traced to the formulation (resolution or the parameterizations included) of the models. Most models show a cold bias in all locations, apart from the tropical tropopause region wher...

On the Influence of Orography on Large-Scale Atmospheric Flow.

Abstract: The steady response to orography as described by shallow-water equations on the sphere is examined in an attempt to provide insight into the dynamical effects of large-scale orographic features on atmospheric motion. The model equations and the zonal flows and orography used in the study are described. The results for simple mountains and for the earth orography are given. The two-dimensional nature of the horizontal propagation on the sphere is emphasized. The results give interesting indications of the regions of influence of mountains and suggest that quantitative theories of the stationary waves must involve a full representation of the spherical domain.

Tracer transport by the diabatic circulation deduced from satellite observations

Abstract: Nimbus-7 sensor data were used to track the diabatic circulation in the stratosphere to study the advective transport of CH4 and N2O as tracer species. Advective transport by the mean circulation was found to be a function of the temperature field and associated deviations from radiative equilibrium. A photochemical model was applied to account for the disappearance of the tracer species from the stratosphere. Comparisons between the SAMS data and modeling on the basis of the chemical loss rates of the tracers and the LIMS circulation data showed that the model predictions underestimated the resident abundances, although the global distributions and circulations exhibited a good match.

On the verification of the quality of SABER temperature, geopotential height, and wind fields by comparison with Met Office assimilated analyses

Abstract: [1] The Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) experiment on the Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics satellite has delivered over 1 year of radiance profile data from which middle atmosphere temperature profiles have been retrieved. Version 1.01 temperatures are precise and sufficiently accurate, such that one can obtain estimates of their synoptic distributions on pressure surfaces. A sequential estimation algorithm was used to generate daily, zonal Fourier coefficients of temperature (through zonal wave number 6), and maps on constant pressure surfaces were generated using those coefficients. Maps of temperature, geopotential height, and geostrophic winds are compared with products from the Met Office analyses. Stratospheric differences are within about 2 K for temperature and 160 m for geopotential height. The respective wind fields indicate flow patterns that are similar. Examples of the fields are shown for a period in February 2002 during a sudden stratospheric warming event that occurred in the Northern Hemisphere. A cooling of the middle mesosphere accompanies the warming. It is anticipated that large-scale, middle atmospheric dynamics and transport studies can be undertaken and that data assimilation products can be extended to near the mesopause using the SABER profiles.

Present and future Köppen-Geiger climate classification maps at 1-km resolution

Abstract: We present new global maps of the Koppen-Geiger climate classification at an unprecedented 1-km resolution for the present-day (1980–2016) and for projected future conditions (2071–2100) under climate change. The present-day map is derived from an ensemble of four high-resolution, topographically-corrected climatic maps. The future map is derived from an ensemble of 32 climate model projections (scenario RCP8.5), by superimposing the projected climate change anomaly on the baseline high-resolution climatic maps. For both time periods we calculate confidence levels from the ensemble spread, providing valuable indications of the reliability of the classifications. The new maps exhibit a higher classification accuracy and substantially more detail than previous maps, particularly in regions with sharp spatial or elevation gradients. We anticipate the new maps will be useful for numerous applications, including species and vegetation distribution modeling. The new maps including the associated confidence maps are freely available via www.gloh2o.org/koppen . Machine-accessible metadata file describing the reported data (ISA-Tab format)

Stratosphere‐troposphere exchange

Abstract: In the past, studies of stratosphere-troposphere exchange of mass and chemical species have mainly emphasized the synoptic- and small-scale mechanisms of exchange This review, however, includes also the global-scale aspects of exchange, such as the transport across an isentropic surface (potential temperature about 380 K) that in the tropics lies just above the tropopause, near the 100-hPa pressure level Such a surface divides the stratosphere into an “overworld” and an extratropical “lowermost stratosphere” that for transport purposes need to be sharply distinguished This approach places stratosphere-troposphere exchange in the framework of the general circulation and helps to clarify the roles of the different mechanisms involved and the interplay between large and small scales The role of waves and eddies in the extratropical overworld is emphasized There, wave-induced forces drive a kind of global-scale extratropical “fluid-dynamical suction pump,” which withdraws air upward and poleward from the tropical lower stratosphere and pushes it poleward and downward into the extratropical troposphere The resulting global-scale circulation drives the stratosphere away from radiative equilibrium conditions Wave-induced forces may be considered to exert a nonlocal control, mainly downward in the extratropics but reaching laterally into the tropics, over the transport of mass across lower stratospheric isentropic surfaces This mass transport is for many purposes a useful measure of global-scale stratosphere-troposphere exchange, especially on seasonal or longer timescales Because the strongest wave-induced forces occur in the northern hemisphere winter season, the exchange rate is also a maximum at that season The global exchange rate is not determined by details of near-tropopause phenomena such as penetrative cumulus convection or small-scale mixing associated with upper level fronts and cyclones These smaller-scale processes must be considered, however, in order to understand the finer details of exchange Moist convection appears to play an important role in the tropics in accounting for the extreme dehydration of air entering the stratosphere Stratospheric air finds its way back into the troposphere through a vast variety of irreversible eddy exchange phenomena, including tropopause folding and the formation of so-called tropical upper tropospheric troughs and consequent irreversible exchange General circulation models are able to simulate the mean global-scale mass exchange and its seasonal cycle but are not able to properly resolve the tropical dehydration process Two-dimensional (height-latitude) models commonly used for assessment of human impact on the ozone layer include representation of stratosphere-troposphere exchange that is adequate to allow reasonable simulation of photochemical processes occurring in the overworld However, for assessing changes in the lowermost stratosphere, the strong longitudinal asymmetries in stratosphere-troposphere exchange render current two-dimensional models inadequate Either current transport parameterizations must be improved, or else, more likely, such changes can be adequately assessed only by three-dimensional models

Volcanic eruptions and climate

Abstract: Volcanic eruptions are an important natural cause of climate change on many timescales. A new capability to predict the climatic response to a large tropical eruption for the succeeding 2 years will prove valuable to society. In addition, to detect and attribute anthropogenic influences on climate, including effects of greenhouse gases, aerosols, and ozone-depleting chemicals, it is crucial to quantify the natural fluctuations so as to separate them from anthropogenic fluctuations in the climate record. Studying the responses of climate to volcanic eruptions also helps us to better understand important radiative and dynamical processes that respond in the climate system to both natural and anthropogenic forcings. Furthermore, modeling the effects of volcanic eruptions helps us to improve climate models that are needed to study anthropogenic effects. Large volcanic eruptions inject sulfur gases into the stratosphere, which convert to sulfate aerosols with an e-folding residence time of about 1 year. Large ash particles fall out much quicker. The radiative and chemical effects of this aerosol cloud produce responses in the climate system. By scattering some solar radiation back to space, the aerosols cool the surface, but by absorbing both solar and terrestrial radiation, the aerosol layer heats the stratosphere. For a tropical eruption this heating is larger in the tropics than in the high latitudes, producing an enhanced pole-to-equator temperature gradient, especially in winter. In the Northern Hemisphere winter this enhanced gradient produces a stronger polar vortex, and this stronger jet stream produces a characteristic stationary wave pattern of tropospheric circulation, resulting in winter warming of Northern Hemisphere continents. This indirect advective effect on temperature is stronger than the radiative cooling effect that dominates at lower latitudes and in the summer. The volcanic aerosols also serve as surfaces for heterogeneous chemical reactions that destroy stratospheric ozone, which lowers ultraviolet absorption and reduces the radiative heating in the lower stratosphere, but the net effect is still heating. Because this chemical effect depends on the presence of anthropogenic chlorine, it has only become important in recent decades. For a few days after an eruption the amplitude of the diurnal cycle of surface air temperature is reduced under the cloud. On a much longer timescale, volcanic effects played a large role in interdecadal climate change of the Little Ice Age. There is no perfect index of past volcanism, but more ice cores from Greenland and Antarctica will improve the record. There is no evidence that volcanic eruptions produce El Nino events, but the climatic effects of El Nino and volcanic eruptions must be separated to understand the climatic response to each.

Global modeling of tropospheric chemistry with assimilated meteorology : Model description and evaluation

Abstract: We present a first description and evaluation of GEOS-CHEM, a global three-dimensional (3-D) model of tropospheric chemistry driven by assimilated meteorological observations from the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) of the NASA Data Assimilation Office (DAO). The model is applied to a 1-year simulation of tropospheric ozone-NOx-hydrocarbon chemistry for 1994, and is evaluated with observations both for 1994 and for other years. It reproduces usually to within 10 ppb the concentrations of ozone observed from the worldwide ozonesonde data network. It simulates correctly the seasonal phases and amplitudes of ozone concentrations for different regions and altitudes, but tends to underestimate the seasonal amplitude at northern midlatitudes. Observed concentrations of NO and peroxyacetylnitrate (PAN) observed in aircraft campaigns are generally reproduced to within a factor of 2 and often much better. Concentrations of HNO3 in the remote troposphere are overestimated typically by a factor of 2-3, a common problem in global models that may reflect a combination of insufficient precipitation scavenging and gas-aerosol partitioning not resolved by the model. The model yields an atmospheric lifetime of methylchloroform (proxy for global OH) of 5.1 years, as compared to a best estimate from observations of 5.5 plus or minus 0.8 years, and simulates H2O2 concentrations observed from aircraft with significant regional disagreements but no global bias. The OH concentrations are approximately 20% higher than in our previous global 3-D model which included an UV-absorbing aerosol. Concentrations of CO tend to be underestimated by the model, often by 10-30 ppb, which could reflect a combination of excessive OH (a 20% decrease in model OH could be accommodated by the methylchloroform constraint) and an underestimate of CO sources (particularly biogenic). The model underestimates observed acetone concentrations over the South Pacific in fall by a factor of 3; a missing source from the ocean may be implicated.

Stratospheric ozone depletion: A review of concepts and history

Abstract: Stratospheric ozone depletion through cat- alytic chemistry involving man-made chlorofluorocar- bons is an area of focus in the study of geophysics and one of the global environmental issues of the twentieth century. This review presents a brief history of the sci- ence of ozone depletion and describes a conceptual framework to explain the key processes involved, with a focus on chemistry. Observations that may be considered as evidence (fingerprints) of ozone depletion due to chlorofluorocarbons are explored, and the related gas phase and surface chemistry is described. Observations of ozone and of chlorine-related trace gases near 40 km provide evidence that gas phase chemistry has indeed currently depleted about 10% of the stratospheric ozone there as predicted, and the vertical and horizontal struc- tures of this depletion are fingerprints for that process. More striking changes are observed each austral spring in Antarctica, where about half of the total ozone col- umn is depleted each September, forming the Antarctic ozone hole. Measurements of large amounts of ClO, a key ozone destruction catalyst, are among the finger- prints showing that human releases of chlorofluorocar- bons are the primary cause of this change. Enhanced ozone depletion in the Antarctic and Arctic regions is linked to heterogeneous chlorine chemistry that oc- curs on the surfaces of polar stratospheric clouds at cold temperatures. Observations also show that some of the same heterogeneous chemistry occurs on the surfaces of particles present at midlatitudes as well, and the abundances of these particles are enhanced following explosive volcanic eruptions. The partition- ing of chlorine between active forms that destroy ozone and inert reservoirs that sequester it is a central part of the framework for our understanding of the 40-km ozone decline, the Antarctic ozone hole, the recent Arctic ozone losses in particularly cold years, and the observation of record midlatitude ozone de- pletion after the major eruption of Mount Pinatubo in the early 1990s. As human use of chlorofluorocarbons continues to decrease, these changes throughout the ozone layer are expected to gradually reverse during the twenty-first century.