William R. Cline

Bio: William R. Cline is an academic researcher from Peterson Institute for International Economics. The author has contributed to research in topics: Liberian dollar & Current account. The author has an hindex of 34, co-authored 124 publications receiving 7731 citations. Previous affiliations of William R. Cline include Center for Global Development & Princeton University.

The Economics of Global Warming

Abstract: This study examines the costs and benefits of an aggressive programme of global action to limit greenhouse warming An initial chapter summarizes the scientific issues from the standpoint of an economist The analysis places heavy emphasis on efforts over a long run of 200 to 300 years, with much greater warming and damages than associated with the conventional benchmark (a doubling of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere) Estimates are presented for economic damages, ranging from agricultural losses and sea-level rise to loss of forests, water scarcity, electricity requirements for air conditioning, and several other major effects A survey of existing model estimates provides the basis for calculation of costs of limiting emissions of greenhouse gases After a review of the theory of term discounting in the context of very-long-term environmental issues, the study concludes with a cost-benefit estimate for international action and a discussion of policy measures to mobilize the global response

Global Warming and Agriculture: Impact Estimates by Country

Abstract: How will global warming affect developing countries, which rely heavily on agriculture as a source of economic growth? William Cline asserts that developing countries have more at risk than industrial countries as global warming worsens. Using general circulation and agricultural impact models, Cline boldly examines 2070-99 to forecast the effects of global warming and its economic impact. This detailed study: * outlines existing studies on the agricultural impact of climate change; * estimates projected changes in temperature, precipitation, and agricultural capacity; and * concludes with policy recommendations. * Cline finds that agricultural production in developing countries may fall between 10 and 25 percent, and if global warming progresses unabated, India's agricultural capacity could fall as much as 40 percent. Thus, policymakers should address this phenomenon now before the world's developing countries are adversely and irreversibly affected.

Agrarian Structure and Productivity in Developing Countries

Abstract: The main argument of this book is that in most developing countries small farmers produce more per unit of land than large farmers and are at least comparable in total factor productivity. This is true after adjustment for differences between large and small farms in the quality of land. This situation reflects a socially inefficient use of agricultural resources resulting in large measure from the present high concentration of agricultural land in the hands of a relatively small number of large farmers. A strategy to redistribute land in favor of small farmers not only would reduce income inequality among farmers but would also increase the total product of agriculture. Such a strategy, therefore, would move societies toward achievement of both equity and efficiency goals for agriculture. Let me make clear at the outset that while I have some reservations about the theoretical underpinnings of this argument, the highly professional job Berry and Cline have done of collecting and presenting the empirical evidence convincingly supports their policy conclusion favoring a small farm strategy for the developing countries. The theoretical argument leading to the expectation that small farms will have higher yields than large farms has two components: (1) the inputs used in developing country agriculture are sufficiently divisible (machinery services can be rented on a custom basis or small machines developed for use on small farms) to yield approximately constant returns to scale; and empirical studies of agricultural production functions in developing countries in fact have found approximately constant returns. (2) However, small and large farmers confront quite different patterns of marginal rates of return or factor prices. The marginal product of family labor on small farms is less than the wage paid hired labor on large farms, and the prices of both land and capital are higher to small farmers than to large farmers. Consequently, while the technical characteristics of the production function indicate approximately constant returns to scale, the pattern of effective factor prices systematically induces the small farmer to use more labor per unit of land, and therefore to produce more per acre, than the large farmer. Two questions naturally occur with respect to this argument: (1) Why do these differences in factor prices or marginal returns persist, and in particular why does labor not move from small to large farms in response to the difference in marginal labor income, thus reducing the intensity of land use on small farms, increasing it on large farms and eliminating,

Trade Policy and Global Poverty

Abstract: The stakes of the poor in trade policy are large: Free trade can help 500 million people escape poverty and inject $200 billion annually into the economies of developing countries, according to author William R Cline This book provides a comprehensive analysis of the potential for trade liberalization to spur growth and reduce poverty in developing countries It quantifies the impact on global poverty of industrial-country liberalization, as well as liberalization by the developing countries Half or more of the annual gains from trade would come from the removal of industrial-country protection against developing-country exports By removing their trade barriers, industrial countries could convey economic benefits to developing countries worth about twice the amount of their annual development assistance By helping developing countries grow through trade, moreover, industrial countries could lower costs to consumers for imports and realize other economic efficiencies The study estimates that free trade could reduce the number of people earning less than $2 per day by about 500 million over 15 years This would cut the world poverty level by 25 percent Cline judges that the developing countries were right to risk collapse of the Doha Round at the Cancun ministerial meeting in September 2003 by insisting on much deeper liberalization of agriculture than the industrial countries were then willing to offer The study calls for a two-track strategy: first, deep multilateral liberalization involving phased but complete elimination of industrial-county protection and deep reduction of protection by at least the middle-income developing countries, albeit on a more gradual schedule; and second, immediate free entry for imports from "high risk" low-income countries (heavily indebted poor countries, least developed countries, and sub-Saharan Africa), coupled with a 10-year tax holiday for direct investment in these countries

Economic growth and income inequality

Abstract: We investigate whether income inequality affects subsequent growth in a cross-country sample for 1965-90, using the models of Barro (1997), Bleaney and Nishiyama (2002) and Sachs and Warner (1997), with negative results. We then investigate the evolution of income inequality over the same period and its correlation with growth. The dominating feature is inequality convergence across countries. This convergence has been significantly faster amongst developed countries. Growth does not appear to influence the evolution of inequality over time. Outline

Trade Policy and Economic Growth: A Skeptic's Guide to the Cross-National Evidence

Abstract: Do countries with lower policy-induced barriers to international trade grow faster, once other relevant country characteristics are controlled for? There exists a large empirical literature providing an affirmative answer to this question. We argue that methodological problems with the empirical strategies employed in this literature leave the results open to diverse interpretations. In many cases, the indicators of openness used by researchers are poor measures of trade barriers or are highly correlated with other sources of bad economic performance. In other cases, the methods used to ascertain the link between trade policy and growth have serious shortcomings. Papers that we review include those by Dollar (1992), Ben-David (1993), Sachs and Warner (1995), Edwards (1998), and Frankel and Romer (1999). We find little evidence that open trade policies-in the sense of lower tariff and nontariff barriers to trade-are significantly associated with economic growth.