Willie Soon

Bio: Willie Soon is an academic researcher from Harvard University. The author has contributed to research in topics: Stars & Climate change. The author has an hindex of 38, co-authored 129 publications receiving 4674 citations. Previous affiliations of Willie Soon include Ceres.

Patterns of Photometric and Chromospheric Variation among Sun-like Stars: A 20 Year Perspective

Abstract: We examine patterns of variation of 32 primarily main-sequence Sun-like stars [selected at project onset as stars on or near the main sequence and color index 0.42 ≤ (B - V) ≤ 1.4], extending our previous 7-12 yr time series to 13-20 yr by combining Stromgren b, y photometry from Lowell Observatory with similar data from Fairborn Observatory. Parallel chromospheric Ca II H and K emission data from the Mount Wilson Observatory span the entire interval. The extended data strengthen the relationship between chromospheric and brightness variability at visible wavelengths derived previously. We show that the full range of photometric variation has probably now been observed for a majority of the program stars. Twenty-seven stars are deemed variable according to an objective statistical criterion. On a year-to-year timescale, young active stars become fainter when their Ca II emission increases, while older less active stars such as the Sun become brighter when their Ca II emission increases. The Sun's total irradiance variation, scaled to the b and y stellar filter photometry, still appears to be somewhat smaller than stars in our limited sample with similar mean chromospheric activity, but we now regard this discrepancy as probably due mainly to our limited stellar sample.

Multiple and changing cycles of active stars - II. Results

Abstract: Aims. We study the time variations in the cycles of 20 active stars based on decade-long photometric or spectroscopic observations. Methods. A method of time-frequency analysis, as discussed in a companion paper, is applied to the data. Results. Fifteen stars definitely show multiple cycles, but the records of the rest are too short to verify a timescale for a second cycle. The cycles typically show systematic changes. For three stars, we found two cycles in each of them that are not harmonics and vary in parallel, indicating a common physical mechanism arising from a dynamo construct. The positive relation between the rotational and cycle periods is confirmed for the inhomogeneous set of active stars. Conclusions. Stellar activity cycles are generally multiple and variable.

The Maunder minimum (1645–1715) was indeed a grand minimum: A reassessment of multiple datasets

Abstract: Aims. Although the time of the Maunder minimum (1645–1715) is widely known as a period of extremely low solar activity, it is still being debated whether solar activity during that period might have been moderate or even higher than the current solar cycle #24. We have revisited all existing evidence and datasets, both direct and indirect, to assess the level of solar activity during the Maunder minimum. Methods. We discuss the East Asian naked-eye sunspot observations, the telescopic solar observations, the fraction of sunspot active days, the latitudinal extent of sunspot positions, auroral sightings at high latitudes, cosmogenic radionuclide data as well as solar eclipse observations for that period. We also consider peculiar features of the Sun (very strong hemispheric asymmetry of the sunspot location, unusual differential rotation and the lack of the K-corona) that imply a special mode of solar activity during the Maunder minimum. Results. The level of solar activity during the Maunder minimum is reassessed on the basis of all available datasets. Conclusions. We conclude that solar activity was indeed at an exceptionally low level during the Maunder minimum. Although the exact level is still unclear, it was definitely lower than during the Dalton minimum of around 1800 and significantly below that of the current solar cycle #24. Claims of a moderate-to-high level of solar activity during the Maunder minimum are rejected with a high confidence level.

Environmental effects of increased atmospheric carbon dioxide

Abstract: A review of the research literature concerning the environmental consequences of increased levels of atmos- pheric carbon dioxide leads to the conclusion that increases dur- ing the 20th Century have produced no deleterious effects upon global weather, climate, or temperature. Increased carbon diox- ide has, however, markedly increased plant growth rates. Pre- dictions of harmful climatic effects due to future increases in minor greenhouse gases like CO2 are in error and do not con- form to current experimental knowledge. SUMMARY World leaders gathered in Kyoto, Japan, in December 1997 to consider a world treaty restricting emissions of ''greenhouse gases,'' chiefly carbon dioxide (CO2), that are thought to cause ''global warming'' - severe increases in Earth's atmospheric and surface temperatures, with disastrous environmental consequences. Predictions of global warming are based on computer climate modeling, a branch of science still in its infancy. The empirical evi- dence - actual measurements of Earth's temperature - shows no man-made warming trend. Indeed, over the past two decades, when CO2 levels have been at their highest, global average temperatures have actually cooled slightly. To be sure, CO2 levels have increased substantially since the In- dustrial Revolution, and are expected to continue doing so. It is rea- sonable to believe that humans have been responsible for much of this increase. But the effect on the environment is likely to be benign. Greenhouse gases cause plant life, and the animal life that depends upon it, to thrive. What mankind is doing is liberating carbon from beneath the Earth's surface and putting it into the atmosphere, where it is available for conversion into living organisms.

A Practical Guide to Wavelet Analysis.

Abstract: A practical step-by-step guide to wavelet analysis is given, with examples taken from time series of the El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The guide includes a comparison to the windowed Fourier transform, the choice of an appropriate wavelet basis function, edge effects due to finite-length time series, and the relationship between wavelet scale and Fourier frequency. New statistical significance tests for wavelet power spectra are developed by deriving theoretical wavelet spectra for white and red noise processes and using these to establish significance levels and confidence intervals. It is shown that smoothing in time or scale can be used to increase the confidence of the wavelet spectrum. Empirical formulas are given for the effect of smoothing on significance levels and confidence intervals. Extensions to wavelet analysis such as filtering, the power Hovmoller, cross-wavelet spectra, and coherence are described. The statistical significance tests are used to give a quantitative measure of change...

Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis.

Abstract: Cause, conseguenze e strategie di mitigazione Proponiamo il primo di una serie di articoli in cui affronteremo l’attuale problema dei mutamenti climatici. Presentiamo il documento redatto, votato e pubblicato dall’Ipcc - Comitato intergovernativo sui cambiamenti climatici - che illustra la sintesi delle ricerche svolte su questo tema rilevante.

Wavelet Methods for Time Series Analysis

Abstract: 1. Introduction to wavelets 2. Review of Fourier theory and filters 3. Orthonormal transforms of time series 4. The discrete wavelet transform 5. The maximal overlap discrete wavelet transform 6. The discrete wavelet packet transform 7. Random variables and stochastic processes 8. The wavelet variance 9. Analysis and synthesis of long memory processes 10. Wavelet-based signal estimation 11. Wavelet analysis of finite energy signals Appendix. Answers to embedded exercises References Author index Subject index.

Global temperature change.

Abstract: lobal temperature is a popular metric for summarizing the state of global climate. Climate effects are felt locally, but the global distribution of climate response to many global climate forcings is reasonably congruent in climate models (1), suggesting that the global metric is surprisingly useful. We will argue further, consistent with earlier discussion (2, 3), that measurements in the Western Pacific and Indian Oceans provide a good indication of global temperature change. Wefirstupdateouranalysisofsurfacetemperaturechangebased on instrumental data and compare observed temperature change with predictions of global climate change made in the 1980s. We then examine current temperature anomalies in the tropical Pacific Ocean and discuss their possible significance. Finally, we compare paleoclimate and recent data, using the Earth's history to estimate the magnitude of global warming that is likely to constitute dan-