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Convex Analysisの二,三の進展について

Convergence of Probability Measures. By P. Billingsley. Chichester, Sussex, Wiley, 1968. xii, 253 p. 9 1/4“. 117s.

Convergence of Probability Measures

In this book, Andrew Harvey sets out to provide a unified and comprehensive theory of structural time series models. Unlike the traditional ARIMA models, structural time series models consist explicitly of unobserved components, such as trends and seasonals, which have a direct interpretation. As a result the model selection methodology associated with structural models is much closer to econometric methodology. The link with econometrics is made even closer by the natural way in which the models can be extended to include explanatory variables and to cope with multivariate time series. From the technical point of view, state space models and the Kalman filter play a key role in the statistical treatment of structural time series models. The book includes a detailed treatment of the Kalman filter. This technique was originally developed in control engineering, but is becoming increasingly important in fields such as economics and operations research. This book is concerned primarily with modelling economic and social time series, and with addressing the special problems which the treatment of such series poses. The properties of the models and the methodological techniques used to select them are illustrated with various applications. These range from the modellling of trends and cycles in US macroeconomic time series to to an evaluation of the effects of seat belt legislation in the UK.

Forecasting, Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter

We explore in this chapter questions of existence and uniqueness for solutions to stochastic differential equations and offer a study of their properties. This endeavor is really a study of diffusion processes. Loosely speaking, the term diffusion is attributed to a Markov process which has continuous sample paths and can be characterized in terms of its infinitesimal generator.

Stochastic Differential Equations

Series Preface * Preface to the Third Edition * 1 Linear Systems * 2 Nonlinear Systems: Local Theory * 3 Nonlinear Systems: Global Theory * 4 Nonlinear Systems: Bifurcation Theory * References * Index

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Differential Equations and Dynamical Systems

We investigate the term structure of zero coupon bonds when interest rates are driven by a general marked point process as well as by a Wiener process. Developing a theory that allows for measure–valued trading portfolios, we study existence and uniqueness of a martingale measure. We also study completeness and its relation to the uniqueness of a martingale measure. For the case of a finite jump spectrum we give a fairly general completeness result and for a Wiener–Poisson model we prove the existence of a time–independent set of basic bonds. We also give sufficient conditions for the existence of an affine term structure.

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Bond Market Structure in the Presence of Marked Point Processes

To the memory of our friend and colleague Oliviero Lessi. Abstract. The main purpose of the paper is to provide a mathematical back- ground for the theory of bond markets similar to that available for stock markets. We suggest two constructions of stochastic integrals with respect to processes taking values in a space of continuous functions. Such integrals are used to define the evolution of the value of a portfolio of bonds corresponding to a trad- ing strategy which is a measure-valued predictable process. The existence of an equivalent martingale measure is discussed and HJM-type conditions are derived for a jump-diffusion model. The question of market completeness is considered as a problem of the range of a certain integral operator. We introduce a concept of approximate market completeness and show that a market is approximately complete iff an equivalent martingale measure is unique.

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Towards a general theory of bond markets

We consider the problem of hedging an European call option for a diffusion model where drift and volatility are functions of a Markov jump process. The market is thus incomplete implying that perfect hedging is not possible. To derive a hedging strategy, we follow the approach based on the idea of hedging under a mean-variance criterion as suggested by Follmer, Sondermann, and Schweizer. This also leads to a generalization of the Black–Scholes formula for the corresponding option price which, for the simplest case when the jump process has only two states, is given by an explicit expression involving the distribution of the integrated telegraph signal (known also as the Kac process). In the Appendix we derive this distribution by simple considerations based on properties of the order statistics.

Mean-variance hedging of options on stocks with Markov volatilities

We consider duality relations between risk-sensitive stochastic control problems and dynamic games. They are derived from two basic duality results, the first involving free energy and relative entropy and resulting from a Legendre-type transformation, the second involving power functions. Our approach allows us to treat, in essentially the same way, continuous- and discrete-time problems, with complete and partial state observation, and leads to a very natural formal justification of the structure of the cost functional of the dual. It also allows us to obtain the solution of a stochastic game problem by solving a risk-sensitive control problem.

Connections between stochastic control and dynamic games

We discuss jump-diffusion type models for financial market as well as methods for pricing and hedging of contingent claims in such markets. We consider both, asset price and term structure models, and deal also with situations when there is a stochastic volatility correlated with the jumps and when one has very small time scales, i.e., high frequency data. To make the presentation possibly self-contained, in a preliminary section we recall some basic notions from stochastic analysis for jump-diffusions.

Wolfgang J. Runggaldier

Papers

Bond Market Structure in the Presence of Marked Point Processes

Towards a general theory of bond markets

Mean-variance hedging of options on stocks with Markov volatilities

Connections between stochastic control and dynamic games

Jump-Diffusion Models