Xinru Han

Bio: Xinru Han is an academic researcher from Agricultural & Applied Economics Association. The author has contributed to research in topics: Agricultural productivity & Consumption (economics). The author has an hindex of 4, co-authored 8 publications receiving 75 citations. Previous affiliations of Xinru Han include China Agricultural University.

The impacts of climate change on crops in China: A Ricardian analysis

Abstract: This paper assesses the impact of climate change on China's agricultural production at a cross-provincial level using the Ricardian approach, incorporating a multilevel model with farm-level group data. The farm-level group data includes 13,379 farm households, across 316 villages, distributed in 31 provinces. The empirical results show that, firstly, the marginal effects and elasticities of net crop revenue per hectare with respect to climate factors indicated that the annual impact of temperature on net crop revenue per hectare was positive, and the effect of increased precipitation was negative when looking at the national totals; secondly, the total impact of simulated climate change scenarios on net crop revenues per hectare at a Chinese national total level, was an increase of between 79 USD per hectare and 207 USD per hectare for the 2050s, and an increase from 140 USD per hectare to 355 USD per hectare for the 2080s. As a result, climate change may create a potential advantage for the development of Chinese agriculture, rather than a risk, especially for agriculture in the provinces of the Northeast, Northwest and North regions. However, the increased precipitation can lead to a loss of net crop revenue per hectare, especially for the provinces of the Southwest, Northwest, North and Northeast regions.

Food consumption of outgoing rural migrant workers in urban area of China: A QUAIDS approach

Abstract: Purpose – In the process of economic development and urbanization, it is important to capture the outgoing rural migrant workers’ food consumption characteristics for ensuring China’s future food security. The purpose of this paper is to empirically analyze the structural characteristics in food consumption demand of outgoing rural migrant workers. Design/methodology/approach – The food consumption of rural migrant workers is estimated using a quaids approach by the generalized method of moments (GMM) estimator to reveal the determinants of the food consumption of outgoing rural migrant workers in urban China based on a sample of 876 of outgoing rural migrant workers from the 2007-2009 household survey conducted by the National Bureau of Statistics of China. Findings – The results show that the GMM estimator is consistent compared with the SUR estimator; the conditional expenditure elasticities of grain foods, livestock products, edible oils and vegetables by outgoing rural migrant workers are 0.877, 1.08...

Urban segregation and food consumption: The impacts of China’s household registration system

Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impacts of China’s urban segregation caused by hukou restrictions on food consumption.,Based on the 2007–2009 Urban Household Survey data from six China provinces conducted by the National Bureau of Statistics of China, the authors adopt a propensity score matching (PSM) method to correct for potential selection bias. A Rosenbaum bounds test is applied to evaluate the sensitivity of the PSM results to unobserved variables.,The results show that holding rural hukou (RHs) reduces the consumption of livestock products and vegetables and fruit by 8.8 and 4.8 percent, respectively. The status of hukou does not affect the consumption of grain and edible oil. Hukou impacts on food consumption are heterogeneous across income levels, with low-income and middle-income households more vulnerable to urban segregation and hukou discriminations. A stronger motivation for precautionary saving and higher welfare expenditures that not compensated by social security lead to the lower food consumption by migrant households with RHs.,This paper advances the research frontier by investigating the impacts of hukou system on the structure of food consumption, which accurately reflects the household welfare.

Impacts of China's bioethanol policy on the global maize market: a partial equilibrium analysis to 2030.

Abstract: Maize is a major component of China’s cereal production. It is also one of the main feedstocks for China's bioethanol production. To ensure food security, there is flexibility in China’s ethanol policy. In this paper, we build a multicountry and multisector partial equilibrium model to simulate the possible impacts of biofuel policy on maize markets and food security. Considering normal macroeconomic conditions, China’s bioethanol promotion policy would result in a net increase in maize imports to 26 mmt in 2030. Meanwhile, China’s maize self-sufficiency ratio would decrease to 92% in 2030 as a result of the country’s bioethanol promotion policy. In addition, simulation results indicate that China’s bioethanol promotion policy could increase the world maize price index by 5% and the world bioethanol price index by 4% in 2030. Based on this modeling study, the Chinese government may take measures in advance to prepare for large-scale maize imports, adjust its strategy in order to make better use of the international market, and strengthen international trade and stock cooperation with maize import regions and countries.

Replication Data for: Nonlinear heat effects on African maize as evidenced by historical yield trials

Abstract: This dataset provides supplementary files for the trials and sites described in the 2011 paper in https://www.nature.com/nclimate/ available at https://dx.doi.org/10.1038/NCLIMATE1043

Quantifying the sources of uncertainty in an ensemble of hydrological climate-impact projections

Abstract: The objective of this paper is to quantify the various sources of uncertainty in the assessment of climate change impact on hydrology in the Tamakoshi River Basin, located in the north-eastern part of Nepal. Multiple climate and hydrological models were used to simulate future climate conditions and discharge in the basin. The simulated results of future climate and river discharge were analysed for the quantification of sources of uncertainty using two-way and three-way ANOVA. The results showed that temperature and precipitation in the study area are projected to change in near- (2010–2039), mid- (2040–2069) and far-future (2070–2099) periods. Maximum temperature is likely to rise by 1.75 °C under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and by 3.52 °C under RCP 8.5. Similarly, the minimum temperature is expected to rise by 2.10 °C under RCP 4.5 and by 3.73 °C under RCP 8.5 by the end of the twenty-first century. Similarly, the precipitation in the study area is expected to change by − 2.15% under RCP 4.5 and − 2.44% under RCP 8.5 scenarios. The future discharge in the study area was projected using two hydrological models, viz. Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and Hydrologic Engineering Center’s Hydrologic Modelling System (HEC-HMS). The SWAT model projected discharge is expected to change by small amount, whereas HEC-HMS model projected considerably lower discharge in future compared to the baseline period. The results also show that future climate variables and river hydrology contain uncertainty due to the choice of climate models, RCP scenarios, bias correction methods and hydrological models. During wet days, more uncertainty is observed due to the use of different climate models, whereas during dry days, the use of different hydrological models has a greater effect on uncertainty. Inter-comparison of the impacts of different climate models reveals that the REMO climate model shows higher uncertainty in the prediction of precipitation and, consequently, in the prediction of future discharge and maximum probable flood.

Farmers' Perceptions of Climate Variability and Factors Influencing Adaptation: Evidence from Anhui and Jiangsu, China.

Abstract: Impacts of climate variability and climate change are on the rise in China posing great threat to agriculture and rural livelihoods. Consequently, China is undertaking research to find solutions of confronting climate change and variability. However, most studies of climate change and variability in China largely fail to address farmers' perceptions of climate variability and adaptation. Yet, without an understanding of farmers' perceptions, strategies are unlikely to be effective. We conducted questionnaire surveys of farmers in two farming regions, Yifeng, Jiangsu and Qinxi, Anhui achieving 280 and 293 responses, respectively. Additionally, we used climatological data to corroborate the farmers' perceptions of climate variability. We found that farmers' were aware of climate variability such that were consistent with climate records. However, perceived impacts of climate variability differed between the two regions and were influenced by farmers' characteristics. In addition, the vast majorities of farmers were yet to make adjustments in their farming practices as a result of numerous challenges. These challenges included socioeconomic and socio-cultural barriers. Results of logit modeling showed that farmers are more likely to adapt to climate variability if contact with extension services, frequency of seeking information, household heads' education, and climate variability perceptions are improved. These results suggest the need for policy makers to understand farmers' perceptions of climate variability and change in order to formulate policies that foster adaptation, and ultimately protect China's agricultural assets.

Climate change and the food production system: impacts and adaptation in China

Abstract: China has received a lot of attention from both the scientific and policy community in its ability to maintain selfreliance in food supply (Verburg et al. 2000; Yang and Li 2000; Yu et al. 2012). Advances in technology and changing agronomic practices have been responsible for significant increases in food production in China over past several decades (Xiong et al. 2012). Yet, since the 1980s, the unprecedented growth of both the economy and the population has led to a decrease in the area of cropland (Deng et al. 2006; He et al. 2013). The growing competition for land, water, and energy, and the overexploitation of fisheries, seriously impairs the production of food. Global environmental change, particularly climate change, makes the situation more challenging. Changes in climate may have implications for climate-sensitive systems such as agriculture, forestry, and other natural resources (Wu et al. 2011; Verburg et al. 2013). China is among the most affected countries by climate change (Ye et al. 2012). Continuous measurements from meteorological stations show that there is a strong warming of China over the past five decades and the temperature has increased by 1.2 C since 1960, which is much higher than the overall rate of global surface temperature change (Piao et al. 2010). Although there is no observed significant longterm trend in country-average precipitation since 1960, there are significant regional precipitation trends. The drier regions of northeastern China (including North China and Northeast China) are receiving less and less precipitation in summer and autumn (a 12 % decline since 1960). By contrast, the wetter region of southern China is experiencing more rainfall during both summer and winter. As for future projections, climate models tell us unambiguously that the warming trend will continue, and China’s average temperature is estimated to increase further by 1–5 C by 2100. This acceleration in temperature warming and its associated changes in precipitation have affected agriculture and food production in China. One of the greatest challenges for China in the twenty-first century will be to ensure that the food supply sustainably meets the needs of the population despite the necessary adaptations to climate change. Meeting this task will require technical and institutional innovations that increase food production and facilitate adaptation to changing climatic conditions. Climate change affects agriculture and the food production system in many ways (Godfray et al. 2011). Changes in climatic variables drive changes in overall food production through interacting effects on crop yields and crop areas. Although there has been much research to investigate the impacts of climate change on crop/food production (Barry and Cai 1996; Chen et al. 2013; Li et al. 2011, 2005; Piao et al. 2010; Wang et al. 2009; Zhang and Huang 2012), these studies are generally either focused on a single aspect of the interactions between climate change and food production or are performed in specific small regions. This causes some inconsistency in assessment results of climate change impacts, and well-recognized conclusions are therefore unavailable (Yang et al. 2013). W. Wu H. Tang Key Laboratory of Agri-Informatics, Ministry of Agriculture of China, Beijing 100081, China e-mail: wuwenbin@caas.cn