Yichen Zhou

Bio: Yichen Zhou is an academic researcher. The author has contributed to research in topics: Precipitation & Species distribution. The author has an hindex of 1, co-authored 2 publications receiving 6 citations.

MaxEnt Modeling Based on CMIP6 Models to Project Potential Suitable Zones for Cunninghamia lanceolata in China

Abstract: Cunninghamia lanceolata (Lamb.) Hook. (Chinese fir) is one of the main timber species in Southern China, which has a wide planting range that accounts for 25% of the overall afforested area. Moreover, it plays a critical role in soil and water conservation; however, its suitability is subject to climate change. For this study, the appropriate distribution area of C. lanceolata was analyzed using the MaxEnt model based on CMIP6 data, spanning 2041–2060. The results revealed that (1) the minimum temperature of the coldest month (bio6), and the mean diurnal range (bio2) were the most important environmental variables that affected the distribution of C. lanceolata; (2) the currently suitable areas of C. lanceolata were primarily distributed along the southern coastal areas of China, of which 55% were moderately so, while only 18% were highly suitable; (3) the projected suitable area of C. lanceolata would likely expand based on the BCC-CSM2-MR, CanESM5, and MRI-ESM2-0 under different SSPs spanning 2041–2060. The increased area estimated for the future ranged from 0.18 to 0.29 million km2, where the total suitable area of C. lanceolata attained a maximum value of 2.50 million km2 under the SSP3-7.0 scenario, with a lowest value of 2.39 million km2 under the SSP5-8.5 scenario; (4) in combination with land use and farmland protection policies of China, it is estimated that more than 60% of suitable land area could be utilized for C. lanceolata planting from 2041–2060 under different SSP scenarios. Although climate change is having an increasing influence on species distribution, the deleterious impacts of anthropogenic activities cannot be ignored. In the future, further attention should be paid to the investigation of species distribution under the combined impacts of climate change and human activities.

Evaluation of TMPA Satellite Precipitation in Driving VIC Hydrological Model over the Upper Yangtze River Basin

Abstract: Although the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) has come to an end, the evaluation of TRMM satellite precipitation is still of great significance for the improvement of the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM). In this paper, the hydrological utility of TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) 3B42 RTV7/V7 precipitation products was evaluated using the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) hydrological model in the upper Yangtze River basin. The main results show that (1) TMPA 3B42V7 had a reliable performance in precipitation estimation compared with the gauged precipitation on both spatial and temporal scales over the upper Yangtze River basin. Although TMPA 3B42V7 slightly underestimated precipitation, TMPA 3B42RTV7 significantly overestimated precipitation at daily and monthly time scales; (2) the simulated runoff by the VIC hydrological model showed a high correlation with the gauged runoff and lower bias at daily and monthly time scales. The Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency (NSCE) value was as high as 0.85, the relative bias (RB) was −6.36% and the correlation coefficient (CC) was 0.93 at the daily scale; (3) the accuracy of the 3B42RTV7-driven runoff simulation had been greatly improved by using the hydrological calibration parameters obtained from 3B42RTV7 compared with that of gauged precipitation. A lower RB (14.38% vs. 66.58%) and a higher CC (0.87 vs. 0.85) and NSCE (0.71 vs. −0.92) can be found at daily time scales when we use satellite data instead of gauged precipitation data to calibrate the VIC model. However, the performance of the 3B42V7-driven runoff simulation did not improve in the same operation accordingly. The cause might be that the 3B42V7 satellite products have been adjusted by gauged precipitation. This study suggests that it might be better to calibrate the parameters using satellite data in hydrological simulations, especially for unadjusted satellite data. This study is not only helpful for understanding the assessment of multi-satellite precipitation products in large-scale and complex areas in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River, but also can provide a reference for the hydrological utility of the satellite precipitation products in other river basins of the world.

First-Year Evaluation of GPM Day-1 IMERG and TMPA Version-7 Legacy Products over Mainland China at Multiple Spatiotemporal Scales

Abstract: Summary The post-real time product of Day-1 Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement (IMERG) is evaluated over Mainland China from April to December 2014 at the hourly timescale, against data from hourly ground-based observations. In addition, the IMERG product is compared with its predecessor-the Version-7 post-real-time 3B42 (3B42V7) product of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) at its original 3-hourly and then daily timescales for the same period. All the products are cross-evaluated at gridded, regional, and national scales. Results show that: (1) the Day-1 IMERG shows appreciably better performance than 3B42V7 at both sub-daily and daily timescales, and all the three spatial scales. The gap between the two products is more significant at the sub-daily resolution; (2) Out of the six sub-regions of China, IMERG especially performs better than 3B42V7 at the mid- and high-latitudes, as well as relatively dry climate regions; (3) IMERG can better reproduce the probability density function (PDF) in terms of precipitation intensity, particularly in the low ranges; and (4) although IMERG better captures the precipitation diurnal variability, both products have room to further improve their capability, particularly in the dry climate and high-latitude regions. This study is among the earliest evaluation and comparison of IMERG and 3B42V7 products, which could be valuable in providing reference for the development of IMERG algorithms, associated global products, and various applications as well.

A Twelve-Year Tropical Rainfall Climatology Based on a Composite of TRMM Products

Abstract: A new climatology of tropical surface rain is described based on a composite of ten years of precipitation retrievals and analyses from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM). This TRMM Composite Climatology (TCC) consists of a combination of selected TRMM rainfall products over both land and ocean. This new climatology will be useful as a summary of surface rain estimates from TRMM (not replacing the individual products) and should be useful as a ready comparison with other non-TRMM estimates and for comparison with calculated precipitation from general circulation models. The TCC mean precipitation for each calendar month and for the annual total is determined by a simple mean of the three chosen products (slightly different combination of products over land and ocean). Over ocean areas, the three TRMM products are those based on the passive microwave (2A12), radar (2A25) and combined retrievals (2B31). Over land, the multi-satellite product (3B43) is substituted for the passive microwave product. The standard deviation (σ) at each point among the three estimates gives a measure of dispersion, which can be used as an indicator of confidence and as an estimate of error. The mean annual precipitation over the TRMM domain of 35°N to 35°S in the new climatology is 2.68 mm d-1 (ocean and land combined) with a σ of .05 mm d-1, or 2.0%. The ocean (land) value is 2.74 mm d-1 (2.54) with a σ/mean of 2.1% (5.4%). The larger dispersion (and assumed error) over land is due to the greater difficulty of satellite rain retrieval over land, especially with passive microwave techniques and especially in mountains and along coasts. The maps of σ and σ/mean indicate these regions of less confidence, including areas over the ocean such as the eastern Pacific Ocean. Examples of values for different latitude bands, seasonal variations, and relations of the individual inputs to the composite mean are given. Comparison with analyses from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) indicates lower values than GPCP for the TRMM composite in middle latitudes over the ocean and over northern Australia and India during their respective summer monsoons.

Modeling the Climate Suitability of Northernmost Mangroves in China under Climate Change Scenarios

Abstract: Mangroves are important wetland ecosystems on tropical and subtropical coasts. There is an urgent need to better understand how the spatial distribution of mangroves varies with climate change factors. Species distribution models can be used to reveal the spatial change of mangroves; however, global models typically have a horizontal resolution of hundreds of kilometers and more than 1 km, even after downscaling. In the present study, a maximum entropy model was used to predict suitable areas for the northernmost mangroves in China in the 2050s. An approach was proposed to improve the resolution and credibility of suitability predictions by incorporating land-use potential. Predictions were made based on two CMIP6 scenarios (i.e., SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5). The results show that the northern edge of the natural mangrove distribution in China would migrate from 27.20° N to 27.39° N–28.15° N, and the total extent of suitable mangrove habitats would expand. By integrating 30 m resolution land-use data to refine the model’s predictions, under the SSP1-2.6 scenario, the suitable habitats of mangroves are predicted to be 13,435 ha, which would increase by 33.9% compared with the current scenario. Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, the suitable area would be 23,120 ha, with an increased rate of 96.5%. Approximately 40–44% of the simulated mangrove patches would be adjacent to aquacultural ponds, cultivated, and artificial land, which may restrict mangrove expansion. Collectively, our results showed how climate change and land use could influence mangrove distributions, providing a scientific basis for adaptive mangrove habitat management despite climate change.