Ying Sun

Bio: Ying Sun is an academic researcher from China Meteorological Administration. The author has contributed to research in topics: Precipitation & Global warming. The author has an hindex of 20, co-authored 56 publications receiving 3578 citations. Previous affiliations of Ying Sun include Earth System Research Laboratory & National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Inter‐decadal variation of the summer precipitation in East China and its association with decreasing Asian summer monsoon. Part I: Observed evidences

Abstract: In recent two decades, North and Northeast China have suffered from severe and persistent droughts while the Yangtze River basin and South China have undergone much more significant heavy rainfall/floods events This long-term change in the summer precipitation and associated large-scale monsoon circulation features have been examined by using the new dataset of 740 surface stations for recent 54 years (1951–2004) and about 123-yr (1880–2002) records of precipitation in East China The following new findings have been highlighted: (1) One dominating mode of the inter-decadal variability of the summer precipitation in China is the near-80-yr oscillation Other modes of 12-yr and 30–40-yr oscillations also play an important role in affecting regional inter-decadal variability (2) In recent 54 years, the spatial pattern of the inter-decadal variability of summer precipitation in China is mainly structured with two meridional modes: the dipole pattern and the positive-negative-positive (“+ − + ” pattern) In this period, a regime transition of meridional precipitation mode from “+ − + ” pattern to dipole pattern has been completed In the process of southward movement of much precipitation zone, two abrupt climate changing points that occurred in 1978 and 1992, respectively, were identified (3) Accompanying the afore-described precipitation changes, the East Asian summer monsoon have experienced significant weakening, with northward moisture transport and convergence by the East Asian summer monsoon greatly weakened, thus leading to much deficient moisture supply for precipitation in North China (4) The significant weakening of the component of the tropical upper-level easterly jet (TEJ) has made a dominating contribution to the weakening of the Asian summer monsoon system The cooling in the high troposphere at mid- and high latitudes and the possible warming at low latitude in the Asian region is likely to be responsible for the inter-decadal weakening of the TEJ Copyright © 2007 Royal Meteorological Society

Rapid increase in the risk of extreme summer heat in Eastern China

Abstract: Mean summer temperature in Eastern China has increased by 082 °C since the 1950s and five of the hottest summers have occurred since 2000 This study estimates anthropogenic influence to have caused a greater than 60-fold increase in the likelihood of extreme summer heat and projects that hot summers will continue to increase in frequency

Attribution of extreme weather and climate-related events

Abstract: Extreme weather and climate-related events occur in a particular place, by definition, infrequently. It is therefore challenging to detect systematic changes in their occurrence given the relative shortness of observational records. However, there is a clear interest from outside the climate science community in the extent to which recent damaging extreme events can be linked to human-induced climate change or natural climate variability. Event attribution studies seek to determine to what extent anthropogenic climate change has altered the probability or magnitude of particular events. They have shown clear evidence for human influence having increased the probability of many extremely warm seasonal temperatures and reduced the probability of extremely cold seasonal temperatures in many parts of the world. The evidence for human influence on the probability of extreme precipitation events, droughts, and storms is more mixed. Although the science of event attribution has developed rapidly in recent years, geographical coverage of events remains patchy and based on the interests and capabilities of individual research groups. The development of operational event attribution would allow a more timely and methodical production of attribution assessments than currently obtained on an ad hoc basis. For event attribution assessments to be most useful, remaining scientific uncertainties need to be robustly assessed and the results clearly communicated. This requires the continuing development of methodologies to assess the reliability of event attribution results and further work to understand the potential utility of event attribution for stakeholder groups and decision makers. WIREs Clim Change 2016, 7:23-41. doi: 10.1002/wcc.380 For further resources related to this article, please visit the WIREs website.

How Often Does It Rain

Abstract: Daily precipitation data from worldwide stations and gridded analyses and from 18 coupled global climate models are used to evaluate the models' performance in simulating the precipitation frequency, intensity, and the number of rainy days contributing to most (i.e., 67%) of the annual precipitation total. Although the models examined here are able to simulate the land precipitation amount well, most of them are unable to reproduce the spatial patterns of the precipitation frequency and intensity. For light precipitation (1–10 mm day−1), most models overestimate the frequency but produce patterns of the intensity that are in broad agreement with observations. In contrast, for heavy precipitation (>10 mm day−1), most models considerably underestimate the intensity but simulate the frequency relatively well. The average number of rainy days contributing to most of the annual precipitation is a simple index that captures the combined effects of precipitation frequency and intensity on the water supp...

Inter-decadal variation of the summer precipitation in China and its association with decreasing Asian summer monsoon Part II: Possible causes

Abstract: The present article is the second part of a study on the inter-decadal variability of the summer precipitation in East China, which mainly addresses the possible cause of this change. Firstly, an updated analysis of the long-term variations of snow cover, snow days and snow depth in the preceding winter and spring over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) was done by using station and satellite data. The abrupt increase in the winter and spring snow over the TP since around 1977 has been well documented. At that time, the inter-decadal variation of the atmospheric heating over the TP in spring and summer had been estimated. It has been revealed that the atmospheric heating fields in subsequent spring and summer over the TP assumed a significant weakening after the late 1970s. This weakening is closely related to the significantly reduced surface sensible heat flux into the atmosphere and subsequent cooling over the TP and its surrounding atmosphere. The latter was produced by the increase of surface albedo and soil hydrological effect of melting snow under the condition of abrupt increase in the preceding winter and spring snow over the TP. On the other hand, three phases of significant inter-decadal warming of the sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical central and eastern Pacific, which occurred in the mid-1960s, the late 1970s and the early 1990s, respectively, have been found. The above inter-decadal variability of heating fields over the land area in the Asian region and neighbouring oceanic region of the West Pacific has consistently reduced the land–sea thermal contrast in summer in the Asian monsoon region based on the estimate of atmospheric heating fields. This cause is likely to lead to weakening of the Asian summer monsoon. In such case, the northward moisture transport in East Asia is greatly weakened and cannot reach North China, thus causing the condition of less precipitation or droughts. In contrast, the Yangtze River basin and South China receive a large amount of moisture supply and have strong upward motion, creating favourable conditions for frequent occurrence of heavy rainfall. In the process of the southward shift of the high-precipitation zone, two abrupt or rapid regime shifts observed in the late 1970s and the early 1990s were possibly in response to the increase in the winter and spring snow over the TP, and two major rapid warming events of the SST in the tropical central and eastern Pacific in the late 1970s and the early 1990s. Correlative analysis has further confirmed that high TP snow and oceanic forcing factors have a positive correlation with the subsequent summer precipitation in the Yangtze River basin and most of South China, and a negative correlation with the summer precipitation in North China. This correlative relationship implies that if the TP has excessive (deficient) snow in the preceding winter and spring and the tropical central and eastern Pacific anomalously warms up (cools down), North China will have decreasing (increasing) summer precipitation, whereas the Yangtze River basin and South China will have increasing (decreasing) summer precipitation. Copyright © 2009 Royal Meteorological Society

Drought under global warming: a review

Abstract: This article reviews recent literature on drought of the last millennium, followed by an update on global aridity changes from 1950 to 2008. Projected future aridity is presented based on recent studies and our analysis of model simulations. Dry periods lasting for years to decades have occurred many times during the last millennium over, for example, North America, West Africa, and East Asia. These droughts were likely triggered by anomalous tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs), with La Ni˜ na-like SST anomalies leading to drought in North America, and El-Ni˜ no-like SSTs causing drought in East China. Over Africa, the southward shift of the warmest SSTs in the Atlantic and warming in the Indian Ocean are responsible for the recent Sahel droughts. Local feedbacks may enhance and prolong drought. Global aridity has increased substantially since the 1970s due to recent drying over Africa, southern Europe, East and South Asia, and eastern Australia. Although El Ni˜ no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), tropical Atlantic SSTs, and Asian monsoons have played a large role in the recent drying, recent warming has increased atmospheric moisture demand and likely altered atmospheric circulation patterns, both contributing to the drying. Climate models project increased aridity in the 21 st century over most of Africa, southern Europe and the Middle East, most of the Americas, Australia, and Southeast Asia. Regions like the United States have avoided prolonged droughts during the last 50 years due to natural climate variations, but might see persistent droughts in the next 20–50 years. Future efforts to predict drought will depend on models’ ability to predict tropical SSTs. 2010 JohnWiley &Sons,Ltd.WIREs Clim Change2010 DOI:10.1002/wcc.81

The impacts of climate change on water resources and agriculture in China

Abstract: China is the world's most populous country and a major emitter of greenhouse gases. Consequently, much research has focused on China's influence on climate change but somewhat less has been written about the impact of climate change on China. China experienced explosive economic growth in recent decades, but with only 7% of the world's arable land available to feed 22% of the world's population, China's economy may be vulnerable to climate change itself. We find, however, that notwithstanding the clear warming that has occurred in China in recent decades, current understanding does not allow a clear assessment of the impact of anthropogenic climate change on China's water resources and agriculture and therefore China's ability to feed its people. To reach a more definitive conclusion, future work must improve regional climate simulations-especially of precipitation-and develop a better understanding of the managed and unmanaged responses of crops to changes in climate, diseases, pests and atmospheric constituents.

Changes in precipitation with climate change

Abstract: There is a direct influence of global warming on precipitation. Increased heating leads to greater evaporation and thus surface drying, thereby increasing the intensity and duration of drought. However, the water holding capacity of air increases by about 7% per 1°C warming, which leads to increased water vapor in the atmosphere. Hence, storms, whether individual thunderstorms, extratropical rain or snow storms, or tropical cyclones, supplied with increased moisture, produce more intense precipitation events. Such events are observed to be widely occurring, even where total precipitation is decreasing: 'it never rains but it pours!' This increases the risk of flooding. The atmo- spheric and surface energy budget plays a critical role in the hydrological cycle, and also in the slower rate of change that occurs in total precipitation than total column water vapor. With modest changes in winds, patterns of precipitation do not change much, but result in dry areas becoming drier (generally throughout the subtropics) and wet areas becoming wetter, especially in the mid- to high latitudes: the 'rich get richer and the poor get poorer'. This pattern is simulated by climate mod- els and is projected to continue into the future. Because, with warming, more precipitation occurs as rain instead of snow and snow melts earlier, there is increased runoff and risk of flooding in early spring, but increased risk of drought in summer, especially over continental areas. However, with more precipitation per unit of upward motion in the atmosphere, i.e. 'more bang for the buck', atmo- spheric circulation weakens, causing monsoons to falter. In the tropics and subtropics, precipitation patterns are dominated by shifts as sea surface temperatures change, with El Nino a good example. The volcanic eruption of Mount Pinatubo in 1991 led to an unprecedented drop in land precipitation and runoff, and to widespread drought, as precipitation shifted from land to oceans and evaporation faltered, providing lessons for possible geoengineering. Most models simulate precipitation that occurs prematurely and too often, and with insufficient intensity, resulting in recycling that is too large and a lifetime of moisture in the atmosphere that is too short, which affects runoff and soil moisture.

Chapter 12 - Long-term climate change: Projections, commitments and irreversibility

Abstract: This chapter assesses long-term projections of climate change for the end of the 21st century and beyond, where the forced signal depends on the scenario and is typically larger than the internal variability of the climate system. Changes are expressed with respect to a baseline period of 1986-2005, unless otherwise stated.

EURO-CORDEX : new high-resolution climate change projections for European impact research

Abstract: A new high-resolution regional climate change ensemble has been established for Europe within the World Climate Research Program Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (EURO-CORDEX) initiative. The first set of simulations with a horizontal resolution of 12.5 km was completed for the new emission scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 with more simulations expected to follow. The aim of this paper is to present this data set to the different communities active in regional climate modelling, impact assessment and adaptation. The EURO-CORDEX ensemble results have been compared to the SRES A1B simulation results achieved within the ENSEMBLES project. The large-scale patterns of changes in mean temperature and precipitation are similar in all three scenarios, but they differ in regional details, which can partly be related to the higher resolution in EURO-CORDEX. The results strengthen those obtained in ENSEMBLES, but need further investigations. The analysis of impact indices shows that for RCP8.5, there is a substantially larger change projected for temperature-based indices than for RCP4.5. The difference is less pronounced for precipitation-based indices. Two effects of the increased resolution can be regarded as an added value of regional climate simulations. Regional climate model simulations provide higher daily precipitation intensities, which are completely missing in the global climate model simulations, and they provide a significantly different climate change of daily precipitation intensities resulting in a smoother shift from weak to moderate and high intensities.