Youngsub Matthew Shin

Bio: Youngsub Matthew Shin is an academic researcher from University of Cambridge. The author has contributed to research in topics: Tropospheric ozone & Ozone layer. The author has an hindex of 5, co-authored 8 publications receiving 102 citations.

Tropospheric ozone in CMIP6 simulations

Abstract: . The evolution of tropospheric ozone from 1850 to 2100 has been studied using data from Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). We evaluate long-term changes using coupled atmosphere-ocean chemistry-climate models, focusing on the CMIP historical and ScenarioMIP ssp370 experiments, for which detailed tropospheric ozone diagnostics were archived. The model ensemble has been evaluated against a suite of surface, sonde, and satellite observations of the past several decades, and found to reproduce well the salient spatial, seasonal and decadal variability and trends. The tropospheric ozone burden increases from 244 ± 30 Tg in 1850 to a mean value of 348 ± 15 Tg for the period 2005–2014, an increase of 40 %. Modelled present day values agree well with previous determinations (ACCENT: 336 ± 27 Tg; ACCMIP: 337 ± 23 Tg and TOAR: 340 ± 34 Tg). In the ssp370 experiments, the ozone burden reaches a maximum of 402 ± 36 Tg in 2090, before declining slightly to 396 ± 32 Tg by 2100. The ozone budget has been examined over the same period using lumped ozone production (PO3) and loss (LO3) diagnostics. There are large differences (30 %) between models in the preindustrial period, with the difference narrowing to 15 % in the present day. Both ozone production and chemical loss terms increase steadily over the period 1850 to 2100, with net chemical production (PO3-LO3) reaching a maximum around the year 2000. The residual term, which contains contributions from stratosphere-troposphere transport reaches a minimum around the same time, while dry deposition increases steadily across the experiment. Differences between the model residual terms are explained in terms of variation in tropopause height and stratospheric ozone burden.

Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report: A critical review of changes in the tropospheric ozone burden and budget from 1850 to 2100

Abstract: Our understanding of the processes that control the burden and budget of tropospheric ozone have changed dramatically over the last 60 years. Models are the key tools used to understand these changes and these underscore that there are many processes important in controlling the tropospheric ozone budget. In this critical review we assess our evolving understanding of these processes, both physical and chemical. We review model simulations from the IGAC Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project and Chemistry Climate Modelling Initiative (CCMI) to assess the changes in the tropospheric ozone burden and its budget from 1850-2010. Analysis of these data indicates that there has been significant growth in the ozone burden from 1850-2000 (~ 43±9%), but smaller growth between 1960-2000 (~16±10%) and that the models simulate burdens of ozone well within recent satellite estimates. The CCMI model ozone budgets indicate that the net chemical production of ozone in the troposphere plateaued in the 1990s and has not changed since then inspite of increases in the burden. There has been a shift in net ozone production in the troposphere being greatest in the Northern mid and high latitudes to the Northern tropics; driven by the regional evolution of precursor emissions. An analysis of the evolution of tropospheric ozone through the 21st century, as simulated by CMIP5 models, reveals a large source of uncertainty associated with models themselves (i.e. in the way that they simulate the chemical and physical processes that control tropospheric ozone). This structural uncertainty is greatest in the near term (two to three decades) but emissions scenarios dominate uncertainty in the longer-term (2050-2100) evolution of tropospheric ozone. This intrinsic model uncertainty prevents robust predictions of near-term changes in the tropospheric ozone burden, and we review how progress can be made to reduce this limitation.

Minimal Climate Impacts From Short‐Lived Climate Forcers Following Emission Reductions Related to the COVID‐19 Pandemic

Abstract: We present an assessment of the impacts on atmospheric composition and radiative forcing of short‐lived pollutants following a worldwide decrease in anthropogenic activity and emissions comparable to what has occurred in response to the COVID‐19 pandemic, using the global composition‐climate model United Kingdom Chemistry and Aerosols Model (UKCA) Emission changes reduce tropospheric hydroxyl radical and ozone burdens, increasing methane lifetime Reduced SO2 emissions and oxidizing capacity lead to a decrease in sulfate aerosol and increase in aerosol size, with accompanying reductions to cloud droplet concentration However, large reductions in black carbon emissions increase aerosol albedo Overall, the changes in ozone and aerosol direct effects (neglecting aerosol‐cloud interactions which were statistically insignificant but whose response warrants future investigation) yield a radiative forcing of −33 to −78 mWm−2 Upon cessation of emission reductions, the short‐lived climate forcers rapidly return to pre‐COVID levels;meaning, these changes are unlikely to have lasting impacts on climate assuming emissions return to pre‐intervention levels Plain Language Summary: As a result of the global COVID‐19 pandemic, unprecedented lockdown measures have been imposed worldwide to reduce the spread of the disease, causing huge reductions in economic activity and corresponding reductions in transport, industrial, and aircraft emissions As well as lowering emissions of greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide, this has resulted in a dramatic reduction in the emissions of pollutants that also affect climate In this study, we have used state‐of‐the‐art computer simulations to quantify how changes in these components are likely to impact the chemical make‐up of the atmosphere and the likely short‐term impacts on climate Despite large decreases in nitrogen dioxide and atmospheric particles, we find these changes result in a very small impact on the energy balance of the atmosphere but one that would act to cool the planet, without considering the knock‐on impacts on clouds (which we cannot be confident about) However, these effects are all likely to be short‐lived if emissions return to pre‐lockdown levels Key Points: Emission reductions are likely to have led to a global reduction in short‐lived climate forcers and tropospheric oxidizing capacityReductions in O3 and aerosol from both lower emissions and decreased sulfate oxidation resulted in a net negative radiative forcingThe radiative impacts are small and short‐lived Longer term climate impacts must come through future sustained emission reductions [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] Copyright of Geophysical Research Letters is the property of John Wiley & Sons, Inc and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use This abstract may be abridged No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract (Copyright applies to all Abstracts )

On the Changing Role of the Stratosphere on the Tropospheric Ozone Budget: 1979-2010

Abstract: We study the evolution of tropospheric ozone over the period 1979-2010 using a chemistry-climate model employing a stratosphere-troposphere chemistry scheme. By running with specified dynamics, the key feedback of composition on meteorology is constrained, isolating the chemical response. By using historical forcings and emissions representative, interactions between processes are realistically represented. We use the model to ask how the ozone responds over time and to investigate model responses, sensitivities, feedbacks and trends. We find that the CFC-driven decrease in stratospheric ozone plays a significant role in the tropospheric ozone burden. Over the period 1979-1994, the decline in transport of ozone from the stratosphere partially offsets an emissions-driven increase in tropospheric ozone production. From 1994-2010, stratospheric ozone recovery, and a levelling off in emissions, effect a small increase in the tropospheric ozone burden. These results have implications for the impact of future stratospheric ozone recovery on air quality and radiative forcing.

The Common Representative Intermediates Mechanism version 2 in the United Kingdom Chemistry and Aerosols Model

Abstract: We document the implementation of the Common Representative Intermediates Mechanism version 2, reduction 5 (CRIv2-R5) into the United Kingdom Chemistry and Aerosol model (UKCA) version 10.9. The mechanism is merged with the stratospheric chemistry already used by the StratTrop mechanism, as used in UKCA and the UK Earth System Model (UKESM1), to create a new CRI-Strat mechanism. CRI-Strat simulates a more comprehensive treatment of non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs) and provides traceability with the Master Chemical Mechanism (MCM). In total, CRI-Strat simulates the chemistry of 233 species competing in 613 reactions (compared to 87 species and 305 reactions in the existing StratTrop mechanism). However, while more than twice as complex than StratTrop, the new mechanism is only 75Strat is evaluated against an array of in situ and remote sensing observations and simulations using the StratTrop mechanism in the UKCA model. It is found to increase production of ozone near the surface, leading to higher ozone concentrations compared to surface observations. However, ozone loss is also greater in CRI-Strat, leading to less ozone away from emission sources and a similar tropospheric ozone burden compared to StratTrop. CRI-Strat also produces more carbon monoxide than StratTrop, particularly downwind of biogenic VOC emission sources, but has lower burdens of nitrogen oxides as more is converted into reservoir species. The changes to tropospheric ozone and nitrogen budgets are sensitive to the treatment of NMVOC emissions, highlighting the need to reduce uncertainty in these emissions to improve representation of tropospheric chemical composition.

Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report: Present-day distribution and trends of tropospheric ozone relevant to climate and global atmospheric chemistry model evaluation

Abstract: The Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report (TOAR) is an activity of the International Global Atmospheric Chemistry Project. This paper is a component of the report, focusing on the present-day distribution and trends of tropospheric ozone relevant to climate and global atmospheric chemistry model evaluation. Utilizing the TOAR surface ozone database, several figures present the global distribution and trends of daytime average ozone at 2702 non-urban monitoring sites, highlighting the regions and seasons of the world with the greatest ozone levels. Similarly, ozonesonde and commercial aircraft observations reveal ozone’s distribution throughout the depth of the free troposphere. Long-term surface observations are limited in their global spatial coverage, but data from remote locations indicate that ozone in the 21st century is greater than during the 1970s and 1980s. While some remote sites and many sites in the heavily polluted regions of East Asia show ozone increases since 2000, many others show decreases and there is no clear global pattern for surface ozone changes since 2000. Two new satellite products provide detailed views of ozone in the lower troposphere across East Asia and Europe, revealing the full spatial extent of the spring and summer ozone enhancements across eastern China that cannot be assessed from limited surface observations. Sufficient data are now available (ozonesondes, satellite, aircraft) across the tropics from South America eastwards to the western Pacific Ocean, to indicate a likely tropospheric column ozone increase since the 1990s. The 2014–2016 mean tropospheric ozone burden (TOB) between 60˚N–60˚S from five satellite products is 300 Tg ± 4%. While this agreement is excellent, the products differ in their quantification of TOB trends and further work is required to reconcile the differences. Satellites can now estimate ozone’s global long-wave radiative effect, but evaluation is difficult due to limited in situ observations where the radiative effect is greatest.

New particle formation in forests inhibited by isoprene emissions

Abstract: It has been suggested that volatile organic compounds (VOCs) are involved in organic aerosol formation, which in turn affects radiative forcing and climate. The most abundant VOCs emitted by terrestrial vegetation are isoprene and its derivatives, such as monoterpenes and sesquiterpenes. New particle formation in boreal regions is related to monoterpene emissions and causes an estimated negative radiative forcing of about -0.2 to -0.9 W m-2. The annual variation in aerosol growth rates during particle nucleation events correlates with the seasonality of monoterpene emissions of the local vegetation, with a maximum during summer. The frequency of nucleation events peaks, however, in spring and autumn. Here we present evidence from simulation experiments conducted in a plant chamber that isoprene can significantly inhibit new particle formation. The process leading to the observed decrease in particle number concentration is linked to the high reactivity of isoprene with the hydroxyl radical (OH). The suppression is stronger with higher concentrations of isoprene, but with little dependence on the specific VOC mixture emitted by trees. A parameterization of the observed suppression factor as a function of isoprene concentration suggests that the number of new particles produced depends on the OH concentration and VOCs involved in the production of new particles undergo three to four steps of oxidation by OH. Our measurements simulate conditions that are typical for forested regions and may explain the observed seasonality in the frequency of aerosol nucleation events, with a lower number of nucleation events during summer compared to autumn and spring. Biogenic emissions of isoprene are controlled by temperature and light, and if the relative isoprene abundance of biogenic VOC emissions increases in response to climate change or land use change, the new particle formation potential may decrease, thus damping the aerosol negative radiative forcing effect.

Tropospheric ozone in CMIP6 simulations

Abstract: . The evolution of tropospheric ozone from 1850 to 2100 has been studied using data from Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). We evaluate long-term changes using coupled atmosphere-ocean chemistry-climate models, focusing on the CMIP historical and ScenarioMIP ssp370 experiments, for which detailed tropospheric ozone diagnostics were archived. The model ensemble has been evaluated against a suite of surface, sonde, and satellite observations of the past several decades, and found to reproduce well the salient spatial, seasonal and decadal variability and trends. The tropospheric ozone burden increases from 244 ± 30 Tg in 1850 to a mean value of 348 ± 15 Tg for the period 2005–2014, an increase of 40 %. Modelled present day values agree well with previous determinations (ACCENT: 336 ± 27 Tg; ACCMIP: 337 ± 23 Tg and TOAR: 340 ± 34 Tg). In the ssp370 experiments, the ozone burden reaches a maximum of 402 ± 36 Tg in 2090, before declining slightly to 396 ± 32 Tg by 2100. The ozone budget has been examined over the same period using lumped ozone production (PO3) and loss (LO3) diagnostics. There are large differences (30 %) between models in the preindustrial period, with the difference narrowing to 15 % in the present day. Both ozone production and chemical loss terms increase steadily over the period 1850 to 2100, with net chemical production (PO3-LO3) reaching a maximum around the year 2000. The residual term, which contains contributions from stratosphere-troposphere transport reaches a minimum around the same time, while dry deposition increases steadily across the experiment. Differences between the model residual terms are explained in terms of variation in tropopause height and stratospheric ozone burden.

The response of ozone and nitrogen dioxide to the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo at southern and northern midlatitudes

Abstract: Observations have shown that the mass of nitrogen dioxide decreased at both southern and northern midlatitudes in the year following the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo, indicating that the volcanic aerosol had enhanced nitrogen dioxide depletion via heterogeneous chemistry. In contrast, the observed ozone response showed a northern midlatitude decrease and a small southern midlatitude increase. Previous simulations that included an enhancement of heterogeneous chemistry by the volcanic aerosol but no other effect of this aerosol produce ozone decreases in both hemispheres, contrary to observations. The authors’ simulations show that the heating due to the volcanic aerosol enhanced both the tropical upwelling and Southern Hemisphere extratropical downwelling. This enhanced extratropical downwelling, combined with the time of the eruption relative to the phase of the Brewer‐Dobson circulation, increased Southern Hemisphere ozone via advection, counteracting the ozone depletion due to heterogeneous chemistry on the Pinatubo aerosol.