Yusuf Jameel

Bio: Yusuf Jameel is an academic researcher from Massachusetts Institute of Technology. The author has contributed to research in topics: Groundwater & Groundwater recharge. The author has an hindex of 10, co-authored 18 publications receiving 415 citations. Previous affiliations of Yusuf Jameel include University of Utah & University of Florida.

Will Coronavirus Pandemic Diminish by Summer

Abstract: The novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) has spread rapidly to multiple countries and has been declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization. While influenza virus has been shown to be affected by weather, it is unknown if COVID19 is similarly affected. In this work, we analyze the patterns in local weather of the regions affected by 2019-nCoV virus until March 22, 2020. So far, 83% of testing have been conducted in non-tropical countries (30N and above) and 90% of the 2019-nCoV cases have been recorded in the same countries within a temperature range of 3 to 17C. Similarly, ~72% of the measurements were done in countries with humidity between 3 and 9g/m3 and 90% of the cases were observed within the same range of absolute humidity (AH). The higher number of tests and global connectivity of the northern-cooler countries may explain the difference in number of confirmed 2019-nCoV cases between cooler and warmer-humid regions. Nonetheless, several countries between 30N and 30S such as Australia, UAE, Qatar, Singapore, Bahrain, Qatar and Taiwan have performed extensive testing per capita and the number of positive 2019-nCoV cases per capita are lower in these countries compared to several European countries and the US. Therefore, even though currently available data is skewed by minimal testing per capita in many tropical countries, it is possible that weather plays a role in the spread of 2019-nCoV which warrants an investigation. In the last 10 days, thousands of new cases have been documented in regions with T >18C suggesting that the role of warmer temperature in slowing the spread of the 2019-nCoV, as suggested earlier might only be observed, if at all, at much higher temperatures. Unlike temperature, however, the range of AH across which most of the cases have been documented has consistently been between 3 and 9g/m3​. Current data, although limited, suggests that it is extremely unlikely that the spread of 2019-nCoV would slow down in the USA or Europe, due to environmental factors, because a large number of cases have already been reported in the range of AH and T experienced by these regions for most part of the year. Given previous associations between viral transmission and humidity and the range of AH across which the majority of the 2019-nCoV cases have been observed till date, the role of absolute humidity merits further investigation with laboratory experiments studying the sensitivity of 2019-nCoV across a range of temperature and humidity conditions. On the other hand, if, new cases in April and May continue to cluster within the current observed range of AH i.e. 3 to 9g/m3, then the countries experiencing monsoon, i.e. having high absolute humidity (>10 g/m3) could see a slowdown in transmissions, due to climatic factors. The data analyzed here are rapidly changing and with several unknowns including how the virus is mutating and evolving, what are the reproductive numbers and the dominant way of spreading. If 2019-nCOV is indeed sensitive to environmental factors, then it could be used to optimize the 2019-nCoV mitigation strategies. Our results in no way suggest that 2019-nCoV would not spread in warm humid regions and effective public health interventions should be implemented across the world to slow down the transmission of 2019-nCoV.

Tap water isotope ratios reflect urban water system structure and dynamics across a semiarid metropolitan area

Abstract: Water extraction for anthropogenic use has become a major flux in the hydrological cycle. With increasing demand for water and challenges supplying it in the face of climate change, there is a pressing need to better understand connections between human populations, climate, water extraction, water use, and its impacts. To understand these connections, we collected and analyzed stable isotopic ratios of more than 800 urban tap water samples in a series of semiannual water surveys (spring and fall, 2013 to 2015) across the Salt Lake Valley (SLV) of northern Utah. Consistent with previous work, we found that mean tap water had a lower 2H and 18O concentration than local precipitation, highlighting the importance of nearby montane winter precipitation as source water for the region. However, we observed strong and structured spatiotemporal variation in tap water isotopic compositions across the region which we attribute to complex distribution systems, varying water management practices and multiple sources used across the valley. Water from different sources was not used uniformly throughout the area and we identified significant correlation between water source and demographic parameters including population and income. Isotopic mass balance indicated significant inter- and intra-annual variability in water losses within the distribution network due to evaporation from surface water resources supplying the SLV. Our results demonstrate the effectiveness of isotopes as an indicator of water management strategies and climate impacts within regional urban water systems, with potential utility for monitoring, regulation, forensic and a range of water resource research. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Urban water - a new frontier in isotope hydrology.

Abstract: Isotope hydrology has focused largely on landscapes away from densely inhabited regions. In coming decades, it will become increasingly more important to focus on water supplies and dynamics within urban systems. Stable isotope analyses provide important information to water managers within large cities, particularly in arid regions where evaporative histories of water sources, vulnerabilities, and reliabilities of the water supplies can be major issues. Here the spatial and vertical understanding of water supporting urban systems that comes from stable isotope analyses can serve as a useful management tool. We explore this research frontier using the coupled natural-human landscape of the Salt Lake Valley, USA, with its greater than one million inhabitants. We first provide data on the stable isotope ratios of the hydrologic system's primary components: precipitation, incoming surface waters, and terminus waters in this closed basin. We then explore the spatial and temporal patterns of drinking waters within the urban landscape and the new opportunities to better link isotope ratio data with short- and long-term management interests of water managers.

Elevated Blood Lead Levels in Children Associated With the Flint Drinking Water Crisis: A Spatial Analysis of Risk and Public Health Response

Abstract: Objectives. We analyzed differences in pediatric elevated blood lead level incidence before and after Flint, Michigan, introduced a more corrosive water source into an aging water system without adequate corrosion control. Methods. We reviewed blood lead levels for children younger than 5 years before (2013) and after (2015) water source change in Greater Flint, Michigan.We assessed the percentage of elevated blood lead levels in both time periods, and identified geographical locations through spatial analysis. Results. Incidence of elevated blood lead levels increased from 2.4% to 4.9% (P<.05) after water source change, and neighborhoods with the highest water lead levels experienced a 6.6% increase. No significant change was seen outside the city. Geospatial analysis identified disadvantaged neighborhoods as having the greatest elevated blood lead levelincreases andinformed response prioritization during the now-declared public health emergency. Conclusions. The percentage of children with elevated blood lead levels increased after water source change, particularly in socioeconomically disadvantaged neighborhoods. Water is a growing source of childhood lead exposure because of aging infrastructure. (Am J Public Health. 2016;106:283–290. doi:10.2105/AJPH.2015.303003)

High Temperature and High Humidity Reduce the Transmission of COVID-19

Abstract: With the ongoing global pandemic of COVID-19, a question is whether the coming summer in the northern hemisphere will reduce the transmission intensity of COVID-19 with increased humidity and temperature. In this paper, we investigate this problem using the data from the cases with symptom-onset dates from January 19 to February 10, 2020 for 100 Chinese cities, and cases with confirmed dates from March 15 to April 25 for 1,005 U.S. counties. Statistical analysis is performed to assess the relationship between the transmissibility of COVID-19 and the temperature/humidity, by controlling for various demographic, socio-economic, geographic, healthcare and policy factors and correcting for cross-sectional correlation. We find a similar influence of the temperature and relative humidity on effective reproductive number (R values) of COVID-19 for both China and the U.S. before lockdown in both countries: one-degree Celsius increase in temperature reduces R value by about 0.023 (0.026 (95% CI [-0.0395,-0.0125]) in China and 0.020 (95% CI [-0.0311, -0.0096]) in the U.S.), and one percent relative humidity rise reduces R value by 0.0078 (0.0076 (95% CI [-0.0108,-0.0045]) in China and 0.0080 (95% CI [-0.0150,-0.0010]) in the U.S.). If assuming a 30 degree and 25 percent increase in temperature and relative humidity from winter to summer in the northern hemisphere, we expect the R values to decline about 0.89 (0.69 by temperature and 0.20 by humidity). Moreover, after the lockdowns in China and the U.S., temperature and relative humidity still play an important role in reducing the R values but to a less extent. Given the notion that the non-intervened R values are around 2.5 to 3, only weather factors cannot make the R values below their critical condition of R<1, under which the epidemic diminishes gradually. Therefore, public health intervention such as social distancing is crucial to block the transmission of COVID-19 even in summer.

Effects of temperature and humidity on the spread of COVID-19: A systematic review

Abstract: Background Faced with the global pandemic of COVID-19, declared by World Health Organization (WHO) on March 11th 2020, and the need to better understand the seasonal behavior of the virus, our team conducted this systematic review to describe current knowledge about the emergence and replicability of the virus and its connection with different weather factors such as temperature and relative humidity. Methods The review was registered with the PROSPERO database. The electronic databases PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science, Cochrane Library, LILACS, OpenGrey and Google Scholar were examined with the searches restricted to the years 2019 and 2020. Risk of bias assessment was performed using the Joanna Briggs Institute (JBI) Critical Appraisal Checklist tool. The GRADE tool was used to assess the certainty of the evidence. Results The initial screening identified 517 articles. After examination of the full texts, seventeen studies met the review's eligibility criteria. Great homogeneity was observed in the findings regarding the effect of temperature and humidity on the seasonal viability and transmissibility of COVID-19. Cold and dry conditions were potentiating factors on the spread of the virus. After quality assessment, two studies had a high risk of bias, eleven studies were scored as moderate risk of bias, and four studies were classified as low risk of bias. The certainty of evidence was graded as low for both outcomes evaluated. Conclusion Considering the existing scientific evidence, warm and wet climates seem to reduce the spread of COVID-19. However, these variables alone could not explain most of the variability in disease transmission. Therefore, the countries most affected by the disease should focus on health policies, even with climates less favorable to the virus. Although the certainty of the evidence generated was classified as low, there was homogeneity between the results reported by the included studies.