Artificial Intelligence and Its Applications 

About: Artificial Intelligence and Its Applications is an academic conference. The conference publishes majorly in the area(s): Frequentist inference & Probabilistic logic network. Over the lifetime, 21 publications have been published by the conference receiving 261 citations.

An “Observational Large Ensemble” to Compare Observed and Modeled Temperature Trend Uncertainty due to Internal Variability

Abstract: Estimates of the climate response to anthropogenic forcing contain irreducible uncertainty due to the presence of internal variability. Accurate quantification of this uncertainty is critical for both contextualizing historical trends and determining the spread of climate projections. The contribution of internal variability to uncertainty in trends can be estimated in models as the spread across an initial condition ensemble. However, internal variability simulated by a model may be inconsistent with observations due to model biases. Here, statistical resampling methods are applied to observations in order to quantify uncertainty in historical 50-yr (1966–2015) winter near-surface air temperature trends over North America related to incomplete sampling of internal variability. This estimate is compared with the simulated trend uncertainty in the NCAR CESM1 Large Ensemble (LENS). The comparison suggests that uncertainty in trends due to internal variability is largely overestimated in LENS, which ...

Impact of Strong ENSO on Regional Tropical Cyclone Activity in a High-Resolution Climate Model in the North Pacific and North Atlantic Oceans

Abstract: Tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the North Pacific and North Atlantic Oceans is known to be affected by the El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). This study uses the GFDL Forecast Oriented Low Ocean Resolution Model (FLOR), which has relatively high resolution in the atmosphere, as a tool to investigate the sensitivity of TC activity to the strength of ENSO events. This study shows that TCs exhibit a nonlinear response to the strength of ENSO in the tropical eastern North Pacific (ENP) but a quasi-linear response in the tropical western North Pacific (WNP) and tropical North Atlantic. Specifically, a stronger El Nino results in disproportionate inhibition of TCs in the ENP and North Atlantic, and leads to an eastward shift in the location of TCs in the southeast of the WNP. However, the character of the response of TCs in the Pacific is insensitive to the amplitude of La Nina events. The eastward shift of TCs in the southeast of the WNP in response to a strong El Nino is due to an eastward shift o...