Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence 

About: Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence is an academic conference. The conference publishes majorly in the area(s): Bayesian network & Probabilistic logic. Over the lifetime, 2804 publications have been published by the conference receiving 141773 citations.

Empirical analysis of predictive algorithms for collaborative filtering

Abstract: Collaborative filtering or recommender systems use a database about user preferences to predict additional topics or products a new user might like. In this paper we describe several algorithms designed for this task, including techniques based on correlation coefficients, vector-based similarity calculations, and statistical Bayesian methods. We compare the predictive accuracy of the various methods in a set of representative problem domains. We use two basic classes of evaluation metrics. The first characterizes accuracy over a set of individual predictions in terms of average absolute deviation. The second estimates the utility of a ranked list of suggested items. This metric uses an estimate of the probability that a user will see a recommendation in an ordered list. Experiments were run for datasets associated with 3 application areas, 4 experimental protocols, and the 2 evaluation metr rics for the various algorithms. Results indicate that for a wide range of conditions, Bayesian networks with decision trees at each node and correlation methods outperform Bayesian-clustering and vector-similarity methods. Between correlation and Bayesian networks, the preferred method depends on the nature of the dataset, nature of the application (ranked versus one-by-one presentation), and the availability of votes with which to make predictions. Other considerations include the size of database, speed of predictions, and learning time.

BPR: Bayesian personalized ranking from implicit feedback

Abstract: Item recommendation is the task of predicting a personalized ranking on a set of items (e.g. websites, movies, products). In this paper, we investigate the most common scenario with implicit feedback (e.g. clicks, purchases). There are many methods for item recommendation from implicit feedback like matrix factorization (MF) or adaptive k-nearest-neighbor (kNN). Even though these methods are designed for the item prediction task of personalized ranking, none of them is directly optimized for ranking. In this paper we present a generic optimization criterion BPR-Opt for personalized ranking that is the maximum posterior estimator derived from a Bayesian analysis of the problem. We also provide a generic learning algorithm for optimizing models with respect to BPR-Opt. The learning method is based on stochastic gradient descent with bootstrap sampling. We show how to apply our method to two state-of-the-art recommender models: matrix factorization and adaptive kNN. Our experiments indicate that for the task of personalized ranking our optimization method outperforms the standard learning techniques for MF and kNN. The results show the importance of optimizing models for the right criterion.

Estimating continuous distributions in Bayesian classifiers

Abstract: When modeling a probability distribution with a Bayesian network, we are faced with the problem of how to handle continuous variables. Most previous work has either solved the problem by discretizing, or assumed that the data are generated by a single Gaussian. In this paper we abandon the normality assumption and instead use statistical methods for nonparametric density estimation. For a naive Bayesian classifier, we present experimental results on a variety of natural and artificial domains, comparing two methods of density estimation: assuming normality and modeling each conditional distribution with a single Gaussian; and using nonparametric kernel density estimation. We observe large reductions in error on several natural and artificial data sets, which suggests that kernel estimation is a useful tool for learning Bayesian models.

Probabilistic latent semantic analysis

Abstract: Probabilistic Latent Semantic Analysis is a novel statistical technique for the analysis of two-mode and co-occurrence data, which has applications in information retrieval and filtering, natural language processing, machine learning from text, and in related areas. Compared to standard Latent Semantic Analysis which stems from linear algebra and performs a Singular Value Decomposition of co-occurrence tables, the proposed method is based on a mixture decomposition derived from a latent class model. This results in a more principled approach which has a solid foundation in statistics. In order to avoid overfitting, we propose a widely applicable generalization of maximum likelihood model fitting by tempered EM. Our approach yields substantial and consistent improvements over Latent Semantic Analysis in a number of experiments.

The author-topic model for authors and documents

Abstract: We introduce the author-topic model, a generative model for documents that extends Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA; Blei, Ng, & Jordan, 2003) to include authorship information. Each author is associated with a multinomial distribution over topics and each topic is associated with a multinomial distribution over words. A document with multiple authors is modeled as a distribution over topics that is a mixture of the distributions associated with the authors. We apply the model to a collection of 1,700 NIPS conference papers and 160,000 CiteSeer abstracts. Exact inference is intractable for these datasets and we use Gibbs sampling to estimate the topic and author distributions. We compare the performance with two other generative models for documents, which are special cases of the author-topic model: LDA (a topic model) and a simple author model in which each author is associated with a distribution over words rather than a distribution over topics. We show topics recovered by the author-topic model, and demonstrate applications to computing similarity between authors and entropy of author output.