Showing papers by "Australian National University published in 2016"

Observation of Gravitational Waves from a Binary Black Hole Merger

Abstract: On September 14, 2015 at 09:50:45 UTC the two detectors of the Laser Interferometer Gravitational-Wave Observatory simultaneously observed a transient gravitational-wave signal. The signal sweeps upwards in frequency from 35 to 250 Hz with a peak gravitational-wave strain of $1.0 \times 10^{-21}$. It matches the waveform predicted by general relativity for the inspiral and merger of a pair of black holes and the ringdown of the resulting single black hole. The signal was observed with a matched-filter signal-to-noise ratio of 24 and a false alarm rate estimated to be less than 1 event per 203 000 years, equivalent to a significance greater than 5.1 {\sigma}. The source lies at a luminosity distance of $410^{+160}_{-180}$ Mpc corresponding to a redshift $z = 0.09^{+0.03}_{-0.04}$. In the source frame, the initial black hole masses are $36^{+5}_{-4} M_\odot$ and $29^{+4}_{-4} M_\odot$, and the final black hole mass is $62^{+4}_{-4} M_\odot$, with $3.0^{+0.5}_{-0.5} M_\odot c^2$ radiated in gravitational waves. All uncertainties define 90% credible intervals.These observations demonstrate the existence of binary stellar-mass black hole systems. This is the first direct detection of gravitational waves and the first observation of a binary black hole merger.

GW151226: observation of gravitational waves from a 22-solar-mass binary black hole coalescence

Abstract: We report the observation of a gravitational-wave signal produced by the coalescence of two stellar-mass black holes. The signal, GW151226, was observed by the twin detectors of the Laser Interferometer Gravitational-Wave Observatory (LIGO) on December 26, 2015 at 03:38:53 UTC. The signal was initially identified within 70 s by an online matched-filter search targeting binary coalescences. Subsequent off-line analyses recovered GW151226 with a network signal-to-noise ratio of 13 and a significance greater than 5 σ. The signal persisted in the LIGO frequency band for approximately 1 s, increasing in frequency and amplitude over about 55 cycles from 35 to 450 Hz, and reached a peak gravitational strain of 3.4+0.7−0.9×10−22. The inferred source-frame initial black hole masses are 14.2+8.3−3.7M⊙ and 7.5+2.3−2.3M⊙ and the final black hole mass is 20.8+6.1−1.7M⊙. We find that at least one of the component black holes has spin greater than 0.2. This source is located at a luminosity distance of 440+180−190 Mpc corresponding to a redshift 0.09+0.03−0.04. All uncertainties define a 90 % credible interval. This second gravitational-wave observation provides improved constraints on stellar populations and on deviations from general relativity.

PartitionFinder 2: New Methods for Selecting Partitioned Models of Evolution for Molecular and Morphological Phylogenetic Analyses.

Abstract: PartitionFinder 2 is a program for automatically selecting best-fit partitioning schemes and models of evolution for phylogenetic analyses. PartitionFinder 2 is substantially faster and more efficient than version 1, and incorporates many new methods and features. These include the ability to analyze morphological datasets, new methods to analyze genome-scale datasets, new output formats to facilitate interoperability with downstream software, and many new models of molecular evolution. PartitionFinder 2 is freely available under an open source license and works on Windows, OSX, and Linux operating systems. It can be downloaded from www.robertlanfear.com/partitionfinder. The source code is available at https://github.com/brettc/partitionfinder.

Epidemiology, Patterns of Care, and Mortality for Patients With Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome in Intensive Care Units in 50 Countries

Abstract: IMPORTANCE Limited information exists about the epidemiology, recognition, management, and outcomes of patients with the acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). OBJECTIVES To evaluate intensive ...

A 2.4% determination of the local value of the hubble constant*

Abstract: We use the Wide Field Camera 3 (WFC3) on the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) to reduce the uncertainty in the local value of the Hubble constant from 3.3% to 2.4%. The bulk of this improvement comes from new near-infrared (NIR) observations of Cepheid variables in 11 host galaxies of recent type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia), more than doubling the sample of reliable SNe Ia having a Cepheid-calibrated distance to a total of 19, these in turn leverage the magnitude-redshift relation based on ∼300 SNe Ia at z < 0.15. All 19 hosts as well as the megamaser system NGC 4258 have been observed with WFC3 in the optical and NIR, thus nullifying cross-instrument zeropoint errors in the relative distance estimates from Cepheids. Other noteworthy improvements include a 33% reduction in the systematic uncertainty in the maser distance to NGC 4258, a larger sample of Cepheids in the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC), a more robust distance to the LMC based on late-type detached eclipsing binaries (DEBs), HST observations of Cepheids in M31, and new HST-based trigonometric parallaxes for Milky Way (MW) Cepheids. We consider four geometric distance calibrations of Cepheids: (i) megamasers in NGC 4258, (ii) 8 DEBs in the LMC, (iii) 15 MW Cepheids with parallaxes measured with HST/FGS, HST/WFC3 spatial scanning and/or Hipparcos, and (iv) 2 DEBs in M31. The Hubble constant from each is 72.25 ± 2.51, 72.04 ± 2.67, 76.18 ± 2.37, and 74.50 ± 3.27 km s(−)(1) Mpc(−)(1), respectively. Our best estimate of H (0) = 73.24 ± 1.74 km s(−)(1) Mpc(−)(1) combines the anchors NGC 4258, MW, and LMC, yielding a 2.4% determination (all quoted uncertainties include fully propagated statistical and systematic components). This value is 3.4σ higher than 66.93 ± 0.62 km s(−)(1) Mpc(−)(1) predicted by ΛCDM with 3 neutrino flavors having a mass of 0.06 eV and the new Planck data, but the discrepancy reduces to 2.1σ relative to the prediction of 69.3 ± 0.7 km s(−)(1) Mpc(−)(1) based on the comparably precise combination of WMAP+ACT+SPT+BAO observations, suggesting that systematic uncertainties in CMB radiation measurements may play a role in the tension. If we take the conflict between Planck high-redshift measurements and our local determination of H (0) at face value, one plausible explanation could involve an additional source of dark radiation in the early universe in the range of ΔN (eff) ≈ 0.4–1. We anticipate further significant improvements in H (0) from upcoming parallax measurements of long-period MW Cepheids.

Optically resonant dielectric nanostructures

Abstract: The resonant modes of plasmonic nanoparticle structures made of gold or silver endow them with an ability to manipulate light at the nanoscale. However, owing to the high light losses caused by metals at optical wavelengths, only a small fraction of plasmonics applications have been realized. Kuznetsov et al. review how high-index dielectric nanoparticles can offer a substitute for these metals, providing a highly flexible and low-loss route to the manipulation of light at the nanoscale. Science , this issue p. [10.1126/science.aag2472][1] [1]: /lookup/doi/10.1126/science.aag2472

The Anthropocene is functionally and stratigraphically distinct from the Holocene

Abstract: Human activity is leaving a pervasive and persistent signature on Earth. Vigorous debate continues about whether this warrants recognition as a new geologic time unit known as the Anthropocene. We review anthropogenic markers of functional changes in the Earth system through the stratigraphic record. The appearance of manufactured materials in sediments, including aluminum, plastics, and concrete, coincides with global spikes in fallout radionuclides and particulates from fossil fuel combustion. Carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus cycles have been substantially modified over the past century. Rates of sea-level rise and the extent of human perturbation of the climate system exceed Late Holocene changes. Biotic changes include species invasions worldwide and accelerating rates of extinction. These combined signals render the Anthropocene stratigraphically distinct from the Holocene and earlier epochs.

Tests of general relativity with GW150914

Abstract: The LIGO detection of GW150914 provides an unprecedented opportunity to study the two-body motion of a compact-object binary in the large-velocity, highly nonlinear regime, and to witness the final merger of the binary and the excitation of uniquely relativistic modes of the gravitational field. We carry out several investigations to determine whether GW150914 is consistent with a binary black-hole merger in general relativity. We find that the final remnant’s mass and spin, as determined from the low-frequency (inspiral) and high-frequency (postinspiral) phases of the signal, are mutually consistent with the binary black-hole solution in general relativity. Furthermore, the data following the peak of GW150914 are consistent with the least-damped quasinormal mode inferred from the mass and spin of the remnant black hole. By using waveform models that allow for parametrized general-relativity violations during the inspiral and merger phases, we perform quantitative tests on the gravitational-wave phase in the dynamical regime and we determine the first empirical bounds on several high-order post-Newtonian coefficients. We constrain the graviton Compton wavelength, assuming that gravitons are dispersed in vacuum in the same way as particles with mass, obtaining a 90%-confidence lower bound of 1013 km. In conclusion, within our statistical uncertainties, we find no evidence for violations of general relativity in the genuinely strong-field regime of gravity.

Mesa isochrones and stellar tracks (mist). i. solar-scaled models

Abstract: This is the first of a series of papers presenting the Modules for Experiments in Stellar Astrophysics (MESA) Isochrones and Stellar Tracks (MIST) project, a new comprehensive set of stellar evolutionary tracks and isochrones computed using MESA, a state-of-the-art open-source 1D stellar evolution package. In this work, we present models with solar-scaled abundance ratios covering a wide range of ages ($5 \leq \rm \log(Age)\;[yr] \leq 10.3$), masses ($0.1 \leq M/M_{\odot} \leq 300$), and metallicities ($-2.0 \leq \rm [Z/H] \leq 0.5$). The models are self-consistently and continuously evolved from the pre-main sequence to the end of hydrogen burning, the white dwarf cooling sequence, or the end of carbon burning, depending on the initial mass. We also provide a grid of models evolved from the pre-main sequence to the end of core helium burning for $-4.0 \leq \rm [Z/H] < -2.0$. We showcase extensive comparisons with observational constraints as well as with some of the most widely used existing models in the literature. The evolutionary tracks and isochrones can be downloaded from the project website at this http URL

Binary Black Hole Mergers in the First Advanced LIGO Observing Run

Abstract: The first observational run of the Advanced LIGO detectors, from September 12, 2015 to January 19, 2016, saw the first detections of gravitational waves from binary black hole mergers. In this paper we present full results from a search for binary black hole merger signals with total masses up to 100M⊙ and detailed implications from our observations of these systems. Our search, based on general-relativistic models of gravitational wave signals from binary black hole systems, unambiguously identified two signals, GW150914 and GW151226, with a significance of greater than 5σ over the observing period. It also identified a third possible signal, LVT151012, with substantially lower significance, which has a 87% probability of being of astrophysical origin. We provide detailed estimates of the parameters of the observed systems. Both GW150914 and GW151226 provide an unprecedented opportunity to study the two-body motion of a compact-object binary in the large velocity, highly nonlinear regime. We do not observe any deviations from general relativity, and place improved empirical bounds on several high-order post-Newtonian coefficients. From our observations we infer stellar-mass binary black hole merger rates lying in the range 9−240Gpc−3yr−1. These observations are beginning to inform astrophysical predictions of binary black hole formation rates, and indicate that future observing runs of the Advanced detector network will yield many more gravitational wave detections.

MESA Isochrones and Stellar Tracks (MIST). I: Solar-Scaled Models

Abstract: This is the first of a series of papers presenting the Modules for Experiments in Stellar Astrophysics (MESA) Isochrones and Stellar Tracks (MIST) project, a new comprehensive set of stellar evolutionary tracks and isochrones computed using MESA, a state-of-the-art open-source 1D stellar evolution package. In this work, we present models with solar-scaled abundance ratios covering a wide range of ages ($5 \leq \rm \log(Age)\;[yr] \leq 10.3$), masses ($0.1 \leq M/M_{\odot} \leq 300$), and metallicities ($-2.0 \leq \rm [Z/H] \leq 0.5$). The models are self-consistently and continuously evolved from the pre-main sequence to the end of hydrogen burning, the white dwarf cooling sequence, or the end of carbon burning, depending on the initial mass. We also provide a grid of models evolved from the pre-main sequence to the end of core helium burning for $-4.0 \leq \rm [Z/H] < -2.0$. We showcase extensive comparisons with observational constraints as well as with some of the most widely used existing models in the literature. The evolutionary tracks and isochrones can be downloaded from the project website at this http URL

SPICE: Semantic Propositional Image Caption Evaluation

Abstract: There is considerable interest in the task of automatically generating image captions. However, evaluation is challenging. Existing automatic evaluation metrics are primarily sensitive to n-gram overlap, which is neither necessary nor sufficient for the task of simulating human judgment. We hypothesize that semantic propositional content is an important component of human caption evaluation, and propose a new automated caption evaluation metric defined over scene graphs coined SPICE. Extensive evaluations across a range of models and datasets indicate that SPICE captures human judgments over model-generated captions better than other automatic metrics (e.g., system-level correlation of 0.88 with human judgments on the MS COCO dataset, versus 0.43 for CIDEr and 0.53 for METEOR). Furthermore, SPICE can answer questions such as which caption-generator best understands colors? and can caption-generators count?

SPICE: Semantic Propositional Image Caption Evaluation

Abstract: There is considerable interest in the task of automatically generating image captions. However, evaluation is challenging. Existing automatic evaluation metrics are primarily sensitive to n-gram overlap, which is neither necessary nor sufficient for the task of simulating human judgment. We hypothesize that semantic propositional content is an important component of human caption evaluation, and propose a new automated caption evaluation metric defined over scene graphs coined SPICE. Extensive evaluations across a range of models and datasets indicate that SPICE captures human judgments over model-generated captions better than other automatic metrics (e.g., system-level correlation of 0.88 with human judgments on the MS COCO dataset, versus 0.43 for CIDEr and 0.53 for METEOR). Furthermore, SPICE can answer questions such as `which caption-generator best understands colors?' and `can caption-generators count?'

Deep neural networks for learning graph representations

Abstract: In this paper, we propose a novel model for learning graph representations, which generates a low-dimensional vector representation for each vertex by capturing the graph structural information. Different from other previous research efforts, we adopt a random surfing model to capture graph structural information directly, instead of using the sampling-based method for generating linear sequences proposed by Perozzi et al. (2014). The advantages of our approach will be illustrated from both theorical and empirical perspectives. We also give a new perspective for the matrix factorization method proposed by Levy and Goldberg (2014), in which the pointwise mutual information (PMI) matrix is considered as an analytical solution to the objective function of the skip-gram model with negative sampling proposed by Mikolov et al. (2013). Unlike their approach which involves the use of the SVD for finding the low-dimensitonal projections from the PMI matrix, however, the stacked denoising autoencoder is introduced in our model to extract complex features and model non-linearities. To demonstrate the effectiveness of our model, we conduct experiments on clustering and visualization tasks, employing the learned vertex representations as features. Empirical results on datasets of varying sizes show that our model outperforms other stat-of-the-art models in such tasks.

Properties of the Binary Black Hole Merger GW150914

Abstract: On September 14, 2015, the Laser Interferometer Gravitational-wave Observatory (LIGO) detected a gravitational-wave transient (GW150914); we characterise the properties of the source and its parameters. The data around the time of the event were analysed coherently across the LIGO network using a suite of accurate waveform models that describe gravitational waves from a compact binary system in general relativity. GW150914 was produced by a nearly equal mass binary black hole of $36^{+5}_{-4} M_\odot$ and $29^{+4}_{-4} M_\odot$ (for each parameter we report the median value and the range of the 90% credible interval). The dimensionless spin magnitude of the more massive black hole is bound to be $0.7$ (at 90% probability). The luminosity distance to the source is $410^{+160}_{-180}$ Mpc, corresponding to a redshift $0.09^{+0.03}_{-0.04}$ assuming standard cosmology. The source location is constrained to an annulus section of $590$ deg$^2$, primarily in the southern hemisphere. The binary merges into a black hole of $62^{+4}_{-4} M_\odot$ and spin $0.67^{+0.05}_{-0.07}$. This black hole is significantly more massive than any other known in the stellar-mass regime.

Climate-driven regime shift of a temperate marine ecosystem

Abstract: Ecosystem reconfigurations arising from climate-driven changes in species distributions are expected to have profound ecological, social, and economic implications. Here we reveal a rapid climate-driven regime shift of Australian temperate reef communities, which lost their defining kelp forests and became dominated by persistent seaweed turfs. After decades of ocean warming, extreme marine heat waves forced a 100-kilometer range contraction of extensive kelp forests and saw temperate species replaced by seaweeds, invertebrates, corals, and fishes characteristic of subtropical and tropical waters. This community-wide tropicalization fundamentally altered key ecological processes, suppressing the recovery of kelp forests.

Follicular Helper T Cells

Abstract: Although T cell help for B cells was described several decades ago, it was the identification of CXCR5 expression by B follicular helper T (Tfh) cells and the subsequent discovery of their dependence on BCL6 that led to the recognition of Tfh cells as an independent helper subset and accelerated the pace of discovery. More than 20 transcription factors, together with RNA-binding proteins and microRNAs, control the expression of chemotactic receptors and molecules important for the function and homeostasis of Tfh cells. Tfh cells prime B cells to initiate extrafollicular and germinal center antibody responses and are crucial for affinity maturation and maintenance of humoral memory. In addition to the roles that Tfh cells have in antimicrobial defense, in cancer, and as HIV reservoirs, regulation of these cells is critical to prevent autoimmunity. The realization that follicular T cells are heterogeneous, comprising helper and regulatory subsets, has raised questions regarding a possible division of labor in germinal center B cell selection and elimination.

HI4PI: a full-sky H i survey based on EBHIS and GASS

Abstract: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) [KA1265/5-1, KA1265/5-2, KE757/71, KE757/7-2, KE757/7-3, KE757/11-1.]; International Max Planck Research School for Astronomy and Astrophysics at the Universities of Bonn and Cologne (IMPRS Bonn/Cologne); Estonian Research Council [IUT26-2]; European Regional Development Fund [TK133]; Australian Research Council Future Fellowship [FT150100024]; NSF CAREER grant [AST-1149491]

Understanding associations among race, socioeconomic status, and health: Patterns and prospects.

Abstract: Race/ethnicity and socioeconomic status (SES) are social categories that capture differential exposure to conditions of life that have health consequences. Race/ethnicity and SES are linked to each other, but race matters for health even after SES is considered. This commentary considers the complex ways in which race combines with SES to affect health. There is a need for greater attention to understanding how risks and resources in the social environment are systematically patterned by race, ethnicity and SES, and how they combine to influence cardiovascular disease and other health outcomes. Future research needs to examine how the levels, timing and accumulation of institutional and interpersonal racism combine with other toxic exposures, over the life-course, to influence the onset and course of illness. There is also an urgent need for research that seeks to build the science base that will identify the multilevel interventions that are likely to enhance the health of all, even while they improve the health of disadvantaged groups more rapidly than the rest of the population so that inequities in health can be reduced and ultimately eliminated. We also need sustained research attention to identifying how to build the political support to reduce the large shortfalls in health. (PsycINFO Database Record

High-efficiency crystalline silicon solar cells: status and perspectives

Abstract: With a global market share of about 90%, crystalline silicon is by far the most important photovoltaic technology today. This article reviews the dynamic field of crystalline silicon photovoltaics from a device-engineering perspective. First, it discusses key factors responsible for the success of the classic dopant-diffused silicon homojunction solar cell. Next it analyzes two archetypal high-efficiency device architectures – the interdigitated back-contact silicon cell and the silicon heterojunction cell – both of which have demonstrated power conversion efficiencies greater than 25%. Last, it gives an up-to-date summary of promising recent pathways for further efficiency improvements and cost reduction employing novel carrier-selective passivating contact schemes, as well as tandem multi-junction architectures, in particular those that combine silicon absorbers with organic–inorganic perovskite materials.

MSWEP: 3-hourly 0.25° global gridded precipitation (1979–2015) by merging gauge, satellite, and reanalysis data

Abstract: . Current global precipitation (P) datasets do not take full advantage of the complementary nature of satellite and reanalysis data. Here, we present Multi-Source Weighted-Ensemble Precipitation (MSWEP) version 1.1, a global P dataset for the period 1979–2015 with a 3-hourly temporal and 0.25° spatial resolution, specifically designed for hydrological modeling. The design philosophy of MSWEP was to optimally merge the highest quality P data sources available as a function of timescale and location. The long-term mean of MSWEP was based on the CHPclim dataset but replaced with more accurate regional datasets where available. A correction for gauge under-catch and orographic effects was introduced by inferring catchment-average P from streamflow (Q) observations at 13 762 stations across the globe. The temporal variability of MSWEP was determined by weighted averaging of P anomalies from seven datasets; two based solely on interpolation of gauge observations (CPC Unified and GPCC), three on satellite remote sensing (CMORPH, GSMaP-MVK, and TMPA 3B42RT), and two on atmospheric model reanalysis (ERA-Interim and JRA-55). For each grid cell, the weight assigned to the gauge-based estimates was calculated from the gauge network density, while the weights assigned to the satellite- and reanalysis-based estimates were calculated from their comparative performance at the surrounding gauges. The quality of MSWEP was compared against four state-of-the-art gauge-adjusted P datasets (WFDEI-CRU, GPCP-1DD, TMPA 3B42, and CPC Unified) using independent P data from 125 FLUXNET tower stations around the globe. MSWEP obtained the highest daily correlation coefficient (R) among the five P datasets for 60.0 % of the stations and a median R of 0.67 vs. 0.44–0.59 for the other datasets. We further evaluated the performance of MSWEP using hydrological modeling for 9011 catchments ( http://www.gloh2o.org .

The Visual Object Tracking VOT2016 Challenge Results

Abstract: The Visual Object Tracking challenge VOT2016 aims at comparing short-term single-object visual trackers that do not apply pre-learned models of object appearance. Results of 70 trackers are presented, with a large number of trackers being published at major computer vision conferences and journals in the recent years. The number of tested state-of-the-art trackers makes the VOT 2016 the largest and most challenging benchmark on short-term tracking to date. For each participating tracker, a short description is provided in the Appendix. The VOT2016 goes beyond its predecessors by (i) introducing a new semi-automatic ground truth bounding box annotation methodology and (ii) extending the evaluation system with the no-reset experiment. The dataset, the evaluation kit as well as the results are publicly available at the challenge website (http://votchallenge.net).

Astrophysical implications of the binary black hole merger gw150914

Abstract: The discovery of the gravitational-wave source GW150914 with the Advanced LIGO detectors provides the first observational evidence for the existence of binary black-hole systems that inspiral and merge within the age of the Universe. Such black-hole mergers have been predicted in two main types of formation models, involving isolated binaries in galactic fields or dynamical interactions in young and old dense stellar environments. The measured masses robustly demonstrate that relatively "heavy" black holes (≳25M⊙) can form in nature. This discovery implies relatively weak massive-star winds and thus the formation of GW150914 in an environment with metallicity lower than ∼1/2 of the solar value. The rate of binary black-hole mergers inferred from the observation of GW150914 is consistent with the higher end of rate predictions (≳1Gpc−3yr−1) from both types of formation models. The low measured redshift (z∼0.1) of GW150914 and the low inferred metallicity of the stellar progenitor imply either binary black-hole formation in a low-mass galaxy in the local Universe and a prompt merger, or formation at high redshift with a time delay between formation and merger of several Gyr. This discovery motivates further studies of binary-black-hole formation astrophysics. It also has implications for future detections and studies by Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo, and gravitational-wave detectors in space.

Go-ICP: A Globally Optimal Solution to 3D ICP Point-Set Registration

Abstract: The Iterative Closest Point (ICP) algorithm is one of the most widely used methods for point-set registration. However, being based on local iterative optimization, ICP is known to be susceptible to local minima. Its performance critically relies on the quality of the initialization and only local optimality is guaranteed. This paper presents the first globally optimal algorithm, named Go-ICP, for Euclidean (rigid) registration of two 3D point-sets under the $L_2$ error metric defined in ICP. The Go-ICP method is based on a branch-and-bound scheme that searches the entire 3D motion space $SE(3)$ . By exploiting the special structure of $SE(3)$ geometry, we derive novel upper and lower bounds for the registration error function. Local ICP is integrated into the BnB scheme, which speeds up the new method while guaranteeing global optimality. We also discuss extensions, addressing the issue of outlier robustness. The evaluation demonstrates that the proposed method is able to produce reliable registration results regardless of the initialization. Go-ICP can be applied in scenarios where an optimal solution is desirable or where a good initialization is not always available.

Phenological sensitivity to climate across taxa and trophic levels

Abstract: Differences in phenological responses to climate change among species can desynchronise ecological interactions and thereby threaten ecosystem function. To assess these threats, we must quantify the relative impact of climate change on species at different trophic levels. Here, we apply a Climate Sensitivity Profile approach to 10,003 terrestrial and aquatic phenological data sets, spatially matched to temperature and precipitation data, to quantify variation in climate sensitivity. The direction, magnitude and timing of climate sensitivity varied markedly among organisms within taxonomic and trophic groups. Despite this variability, we detected systematic variation in the direction and magnitude of phenological climate sensitivity. Secondary consumers showed consistently lower climate sensitivity than other groups. We used mid-century climate change projections to estimate that the timing of phenological events could change more for primary consumers than for species in other trophic levels (6.2 versus 2.5–2.9 days earlier on average), with substantial taxonomic variation (1.1–14.8 days earlier on average).