Showing papers by "Baltic International Academy published in 2012"

Modern Model of Interconnection of Inflation and Unemployment in Latvia

Abstract: Globalisation contributes to stabilisation of monetary policy of countries, achievement of price stability and decrease rates of inflation. There is no clear generally accepted concept for “inflation”. A number of experts consider inflation to be a complicated multisided process, which depends not only on economical but also on social and political reasons. One of the main aims of state governments and central banks of the majority of world countries is the decrease of inflation due to its negative effect on the economy. Researches have shown that in developed countries inflation higher than 3% leads to substantial slowdown of economy growth rate. A. Phillips determined the presence of negative correlation between the rate of inflation and the rate of unemployment. On the basis of so called Phillips curve a wrong conclusion was done that by increasing inflation it is possible to decrease unemployment. It wasn't confirmed in practice. There is a hypothesis stating that unemployment has a certain “natural” Not Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment (NAIRU). Nowadays Phillips curve (1958) is considered in a wider sense as a complicated event, developing in the absence of neutrality of money in economic processes. The object of the research is interconnection of inflation and unemployment in Latvia. The goal of the research – analysis of interconnection between inflation and unemployment in Latvia, estimation of the “natural” rate of unemployment. All these researches have not been done before. By using the statistical data of Latvia and analysis thereof show the possibility of using modern mathematical regression models for researches of macroeconomic indicators. Methods of the research are mathematical modelling, correlation and regression analysis. In Latvia systematic accounting of unemployment is done from 1996. For analysis of the interconnection between time series of inflation rate and unemployment a non-linear regression equation - a quadratic parabola was computed and estimated. The considered period is from the year 1996 until 2008. The negative correlation between inflation and unemployment occurs within the whole considered time length. Classical Phillips curve is missing. However, within the period from the year 1999 until 2008 negative correlation occurs, as it is with Phillips curve. Such change of correlation between inflation and unemployment from positive to negative value at the turn of 1998-99 is obviously explained by macroeconomic changes and development peculiarities in Latvia. To identify peculiarities of inflation in Latvia the period from 1999 to 2008 has been analysed separately. To check the quality of the regression models the correlation and regression analysis was done. The calculated index and coefficient of determination in both cases point at quite good quality of regression models: with the help thereof it is possible to explain 70 % and 60 % of inflation respectively. It is possible to say that both models of regression adequately fit empirical data and are appropriate for use. As long as analysis of dynamics time series is fulfilled, a check has been done for the presence of autocorrelation in residuals, which is subjected to autoregressive process of the first order. For the check of the main hypothesis Н о : ρ = 0 Durbin-Watson test statistics has been used. Analysis showed that in these models there is no autocorrelation, econometric models can be used for analyses. A multiple linear equation of inflation autoregression model was obtained and analysed also. To determine the “natural” rate of unemployment in Latvia (NAIRU) the last equation is changed. As a result it is obtained that the estimate of the “natural” rate of unemployment for Latvia's economy is quite large 16%. In developed market economies NAIRU is much less. This denotes existence of disproportions and drawbacks of macroeconomic development. This is confirmed by very adverse consequences of the financial and economic crisis for Latvia. A number of macroeconomic experts believe that Latvia needs an "industrial revolution": accent on development of the priority branches of industry, export. Changes in the structure of government, education, as well as creation of attractive environment for investments are necessary also. The analysis of interconnection between inflation and unemployment in Latvia, which was done according to mathematical regression models quite sufficiently corresponding to empirical data, points to the possibility of successful application of such models for analysis and researches of macroeconomic indicators. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5755/j01.ee.23.2.1543

The web portal “Active longevity of Kazakhstan population”: Actuality, objectives, functions and preliminary results

Abstract: Increasing the duration of active life is one of the most important problems in modern gerontology in the world, including Kazakhstan. First, the solution of these problems is associated with using information and communication technologies (ICT). Gerontological RK portal, which has no analogues in countries of the former USSR, will include information on major aspects of the aging in RK. Portal will be a platform for exchange of experiences, publishing of research results, for getting generalized and personalized information. This paper describes the main elements of the portal and presents preliminary results of frequency occurrence analysis of cardiovascular diseases in elderly age and income level of the respondent on the basis of epidemiological screening, performed on the basis of data collected on our site.

Predictive inferences for a future number of failures coming from underlying models under parametric uncertainty

Abstract: In this paper, we present an accurate procedure to obtain prediction limits for the number of failures that will be observed in a future inspection of a sample of units, based only on the results of the first in-service inspection of the same sample. The failure-time of such units is modeled with a two-parameter Weibull distribution indexed by scale and shape parameters β and δ, respectively. It will be noted that in the literature only the case is considered when the scale param-eter β is unknown, but the shape parameter δ is known. As a rule, in practice the Weibull shape parameter δ is not known. Instead it is estimated subjectively or from relevant data. Thus its value is uncertain. Thisδuncertainty may con-tribute greater uncertainty to the construction of prediction limits for a future number of failures. In this paper, we consider the case when both parameters βandδ,are unknown. In literature, for this situation, usually a Bayesian approach is used. Bayesian methods are not considered here. We note, however,that although subjective Bayesian prediction has a clear personal probability in-terpretation, it is not generally clear how this should be applied to non-personal prediction or decisions. Objective Bayesian methods, on the other hand, do not have clear probability interpretations in finite samples. The technique proposed here for constructing prediction limits emphasizes pivotal quantities relevant for obtaining ancillary statistics. and represents a special case of the method of invariant embedding of sample statistics into a performance index. Two versions of prediction limits for a future number of failures are given.

Characteristiscs of fatal patient cases out of Riga hospitals

Abstract: Health care system becomes less accessible to the people in Latvia. Health insurance is practically destroyed from April, 2010. The aim of our study is to analyze reasons of death of persons who died out of hospital in Riga. We have investigated 130 post mortem examination protocols from Pathology centre of Riga Eastern Clinical university hospital. We have evaluated the information from family doctor and ambulance care medical staff. In our analyzed group 58% of persons were found dead at home without any medical aid but 25% – died in the ambulance car after call to public institutions. Alarming is fact that 43,8% of patients died at 4–5th decade of age. There was also such vulnerably group as homeless people. The most common reasons of death were acute and chronic variations of cardio-vascular and lung curable pathologies. In Latvia there is urgent necessity of costless medical offices for poor and defenceless persons. Patient’s delay in seeking medical help is the decisive phase for late diagnosis of diseases and mortality. It is necessary to renew health insurance system in Latvia. All levels of medical staff and students of medical universities must be involved in providing information on early disease symptoms, diagnosis and treatment options in different media.