Showing papers by "Cancer Epidemiology Unit published in 1995"
TL;DR: Despite problems of underreporting in overweight individuals in 20% of this sample, weighed records remained the most accurate method of dietary assessment, and only an estimated 7 d diary was able to approach this accuracy.
Abstract: Results from analysis of 24 h urine collections, verified for completeness with para-amino benzoic acid, and blood samples collected over 1 year were compared with 16 d weighed records of all food consumed collected over the year, and with results from 24 h recalls, food-frequency questionnaires and estimated food records in 160 women. Using the weighed records, individuals were sorted into quintiles of the distribution of the urine N excretion: dietary N intake ratio (UN:DN). UN exceeded DN in the top quintile of this ratio; mean ratio UN:DN = 1·13 Individuals in this top quintile were heavier, had significantly greater body mass indices, were reportedly more restrained eaters, had significantly lower energy intake:basal metabolic rate ratios (EI:BMR), and had correlated ratios of UN:DN and EI:BMR (r - 0·62). Those in the top quintile reported lower intakes of energy and energy-yielding nutrients, Ca, fats, cakes, breakfast cereals, milk and sugars than individuals in the other quintiles but not lower intakes of non-starch polysaccharides, vitamin C, vegetables, potatoes or meat. Correlations between dietary intake from weighed records and 24 h urine K were 0·74 and 0·82, and between dietary vitamin C and β-carotene and plasma vitamin C and β-carotene 0·86 and 0·48. Correlations between dietary N intake from weighed records and 24 h urine excretion were high (0·78–0·87). Those between N from estimated food records and urine N were r 0·60–0·70. Correlations between urine N and 24 h recalls and food-frequency questionnaires were in the order of 0·01 to 0·5. Despite problems of underreporting in overweight individuals in 20% of this sample, weighed records remained the most accurate method of dietary assessment, and only an estimated 7 d diary was able to approach this accuracy.
417 citations
TL;DR: In several vertebrate species, the specific agents responsible for leukaemia belong to a class that is notoriously difficult to isolate as discussed by the authors, and many infectious illnesses do not cluster because they are uncommon responses to the relevant infection.
Abstract: An infective basis for childhood leukaemia is not a new suspicion (Kellett, 1937). The failure of microbiologists to identify any specific agent and of epidemiologists to demonstrate marked space-time clustering of the disease (Smith, 1982) have been discouraging, but neither is incompatible with an infectious origin. In several vertebrate species, the specific agents responsible for leukaemia belong to a class that is notoriously difficult to isolate. Also, many infectious illnesses do not cluster because they are uncommon responses to the relevant infection. Thus, the agent responsible for infectious mononucleosis is mainly spread not by those with the illness but by that very much larger number of infected individuals who are clinically unaffected (or only trivially so). Such infections can be considered as 'mainly immunising': they can be seen as representing the most probable broad category to which the infection underlying childhood leukaemia belongs.
323 citations
160 citations
TL;DR: The findings of this pooled analysis confirm that cigarette smoking is a causal factor in the etiology of RCC.
Abstract: The relationship between renal-cell cancer (RCC) and tobacco use was investigated in an international, multicenter, population-based case-control study Coordinated studies were conducted in Austra
154 citations
TL;DR: There were 403 deaths in HIV seropositive patients during 1985-92, whereas 60 would have been predicted from rates in seronegatives, suggesting that 85% of the deaths in seropOSitive patients were due to HIV infection.
Abstract: During 1977-91, 6,278 males diagnosed with haemophilia were living in the UK During 1979-86, 1,227 were infected with the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV-1) as a result of transfusion therapy (median estimated seroconversion date, October 1982) Among 2,448 with severe haemophilia, the annual death rate was stable at 8 per 1,000 during 1977-84; during 1985-92 death rates remained at 8 per 1,000 among HIV-seronegative patients but rose steeply in seropositive patients, reaching 81 per 1,000 in 1991-92 Among 3,830 with mild or moderate haemophilia, the pattern was similar, with an initial death rate of 4 per 1,000 in 1977-84, rising to 85 per 1,000 in 1991-92 in seropositive patients During 1985-92, there were 403 deaths in HIV seropositive patients, whereas 60 would have been predicted from rates in seronegatives, suggesting that 85% of the deaths in seropositive patients were due to HIV infection Most of the excess deaths were certified as due to AIDS or to conditions recognized as being associated with AIDS
121 citations
TL;DR: A weak positive association was found between calcium intake estimates based on the food frequency questionnaire and total body BMD among premenopausal women and the preventive effect of high dietary calcium on osteoporosis is probably very weak.
Abstract: To determine the relationships among nutrients intake, bone mass, and bone turnover in women we have investigated these issues in a population-based, cross-sectional, observational study in one county in central Sweden. A total of 175 women aged 28-74 at entry to the study were included. Dietary assessment was made by both a semiquantitative food frequency questionnaire and by four 1-week dietary records. Dual energy X-ray absorptiometry was performed at five sites: total body, L2-L4 region of the lumbar spine, and three regions of the proximal femur. Serum concentrations of osteocalcin (an osteoblast-specific protein reflecting bone turnover) were measured by a radioimmunoassay. Linear regression models, with adjustment for possible confounding factors were used for statistical analyses. A weak positive association was found between dietary calcium intake as calculated from the semiquantitative food frequency questionnaire and total body bone mineral density (BMD) among premenopausal women. No association emerged between dietary calcium intake and site-specific bone mass, i.e., lumbar spine and femoral neck, nor was an association found between dietary calcium intake and serum osteocalcin. BMD at some of the measured sites was positively associated with protein and carbohydrates and negatively associated with dietary fat. In no previous studies of diet and bone mass have dietary habits been ascertained so carefully and the results adjusted for possible confounding factors. Neither of the two methods of dietary assessment used in this study revealed any effect of calcium intake on BMD at fracture-relevant sites among these healthy, mostly middle-aged women.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)
116 citations
TL;DR: Crohn's disease may be a chronic granulomatous vasculitis in reaction to a persistent infection with measles virus within the vascular endothelium, according to preliminary evidence from both epidemiological and basic scientific data.
116 citations
TL;DR: The association between high dietary intake of iron, magnesium and vitamin C and risk of hip fracture has not been reported previously and indicates new dietary risk factors for hip fracture.
Abstract: Michaelsson K (Department of Orthopaedics, Central Hospital, S-721 89 Vasteras, Sweden), Holmberg L, Mallmin H, Sorensen S, Wolk A, Bergstrom R, Ljunghall S and the Study Group of the Multiple Risk Survey on Swedish Women for Eating Assessment. Diet and hip fracture risk : A case-control study. International Journal of Epidemiology 1995 ; 24 : 771-782. Background. The role of diet as a risk factor for osteoporotic fractures is unclear. Earlier studies have yielded conflicting results. Methods. In two counties in central Sweden we investigated the association between dietary intake and the risk of proximal femoral fractures in a case-control study nested in a cohort. Women born in 1914-1948 were asked to fill out a food frequency questionnaire when invited to attend for mammographic screening between the years 1987 and 1990. More than 65 000 women completed the questionnaire. Those who had participated in the enquiry and subsequently sustained a first hip fracture were defined as cases. For every case, four individually matched controls, by age and county of residence, were selected from the cohort. A second questionnaire concerning confounding factors was mailed to controls and cases. In all, 247 cases and 893 controls could finally be included. Monthly intake of foods and daily intake of nutrients were calculated. Results. When highest quartile of intake was compared to lowest, intakes of iron (adjusted odds ratio [OR] of 3.3, 95% confidence interval [Cl] : 1.6-6.9), magnesium (adjusted OR = 2.7, 95% Cl : 1.3-6.0) and vitamin C (adjusted OR =1.9, 95% Cl : 1.2-3.1) were found to be independent risk factors for hip fracture. High calcium intake did not protect against hip fracture. Smoking, low physical activity in leisure time, low body mass index, earlier fracture of the distal forearm and diabetes were all risk factors while postmenopausal hormone replacement therapy protected against hip fracture. Discussion. This large study indicates new dietary risk factors for hip fracture. The association between high dietary intake of iron, magnesium and vitamin C and risk of hip fracture has not been reported previously. Further clinical and experimental studies are needed to confirm these findings and to investigate their mechanism of action.
113 citations
TL;DR: For all three of these cancers risk changes within a few years of changes in exposure to sex hormones and some of the changes in risk persist for many years, indicating that hormones can affect both early and late stages of carcinogenesis.
Abstract: Hormones play a major role in the aetiology of several of the commonest cancers worldwide, including cancers of the endometrium, breast and ovary in women and cancer of the prostate in men. It is likely that the main mechanisms by which hormones affect cancer risk are by controlling the rate of cell division, the differentiation of cells and the number of susceptible cells. Hormones have very marked effects on cell division in the endometrium; oestrogens stimulate mitosis whereas progestins oppose this effect. The risk for endometrial cancer increases with late menopause, oestrogen replacement therapy and obesity, and decreases with parity and oral contraceptive use; thus risk increases in proportion to the duration of exposure to oestrogens unopposed by progestins, probably because unopposed oestrogens stimulate endometrial cell division. The effects of hormones on breast epithelial cell division in non-pregnant women are much less clear-cut than their effects on the endometrium, but both oestrogens and progestins appear to stimulate mitosis. Breast cancer risk increases with early menarche, late menopause and oestrogen replacement therapy, probably due to increased exposure of the breasts to oestrogen and/or progesterone. Early first pregnancy and multiparity reduce the risk for breast cancer, probably due to the hormonally-induced differentiation of breast cells and the corresponding reduction in the number of susceptible cells. Hormones do not have marked direct effects on the epithelial cells covering the ovaries, but hormones stimulate ovulation which is followed by cell division during repair of the epithelium. Risk for ovarian cancer increases with late menopause and decreases with parity and oral contraceptive use, suggesting that the lifetime number of ovulations may be a determinant of risk. For all three of these cancers risk changes within a few years of changes in exposure to sex hormones and some of the changes in risk persist for many years, indicating that hormones can affect both early and late stages of carcinogenesis. Understanding of the role of sex hormones in the aetiology of prostate cancer and of some rarer cancers is less complete.
113 citations
103 citations
TL;DR: Among those irradiated patients, the ratio of observed to expected deaths for leukemia other than chronic lymphocytic leukemia was greatest in the period 1-5 years after the first treatment, and decreased to 1.87 in the 25+ year period.
Abstract: Leukemia mortality has been studied in 14,767 adult ankylosing spondylitis patients diagnosed between 1935 and 1957 in the United Kingdom, of whom 13,914 patients received X-ray treatment. By 1 January 1992, there were 60 leukemia deaths among the irradiated patients, almost treble that expected from national rates. Leukemia mortality was not increased among unirradiated patients. Among those irradiated, the ratio of observed to expected deaths for leukemia other than chronic lymphocytic leukemia was greatest in the period 1-5 years after the first treatment (ratio = 11.01, 95% confidence interval 5.26-20.98) and decreased to 1.87 (95% confidence interval 0.94-3.36) in the 25+ year period. There was no significant variation in this ratio with sex or age at first treatment. The ratio for chronic lymphocytic leukemia was slightly but not significantly raised (ratio = 1.44, 95% confidence interval 0.62-2.79). Most irradiated patients received all their exposure within a year. Based on a 1 in 15 random sample, the mean total marrow dose was 4.38 Gy. Doses were nonuniform, with heaviest doses to the lower spine. The risk for nonchronic lymphocytic leukemia was adequately described by a linear-exponential model that allowed for cell sterilization in heavily exposed parts of the marrow and time since exposure. Ten years after first exposure, the linear component of excess relative risk was 12.37 per Gy (95% confidence interval 2.25-52.07), and it was estimated that cell sterilization reduced the excess relative risk by 47% at 1 Gy (95% confidence interval 17%-79%). The average predicted relative risk in the period 1-25 years after exposure to a uniform dose of 1 Gy was 7.00.
TL;DR: The extent to which elderly patients (≥65 years) currently are being entered in Phase II single‐agent studies, and if advanced age is associated with increased toxicity, are determined.
Abstract: Background. This study aimed to determine the extent to which elderly patients (≥65 years) currently are being entered in Phase II single-agent studies, and if advanced age is associated with increased toxicity.
Methods. This analysis was based on the age distribution of 2344 patients with various solid tumors entering 16 phase II EORTC single-agent trials from January 1983 to February 1992.
Results. Of the study group, 22% were 65 years or older and 8% were 70 years or older. Delay in dose administration and dose reduction were significantly higher for elderly patients compared with younger patients (P < 0.05). When adjusting for previous chemotherapy pretreatment, no difference between elderly and nonelderly patients was noted in the frequency of grade 3 and 4 hematological toxicity, nausea, vomiting, and diarrhea. A significant higher frequency of episodes of severe oral toxicity (P < 0.05) and alopecia were observed for elderly patients, but a higher proportion (P < 0.05) of elderly patients received drugs for which stomatitis was an established side effect. No significant difference in the frequency of complete plus partial responses was observed between older and younger patients (9% versus 7%). Treatment discontinuation significantly increased with age, ranging from 24% for those younger than 50 years to 33% among elderly patients (x for trend = 12.83, P < 0.001). There was not evidence that excess toxicity was an obstacle to treatment continuation for elderly patients, whereas treatment discontinuation did occur for the older age group more frequently because of loss to follow-up and treatment refusal.
Conclusion. Selected elderly patients can and should enter new-drug-development protocols without an increased risk of more severe or frequent side effects. A priori exclusion based on an arbitrary chronologic age limit no longer should occur. Cancer 1995; 76:333–8.
Journal Article•
TL;DR: The risk for prostate cancer increases with age, with a family history of the disease and with living in a Westernized society, especially for blacks, and the evidence does not support the hypothesis that carotene intake is associated with risk.
Abstract: The risk for prostate cancer increases with age, with a family history of the disease and with living in a Westernized society, especially for blacks. Although there is no doubt that genetic factors are important, and might explain some of the geographical variation in rates, the differences between populations are so large that environmental factors must also be important. The evidence suggesting that dietary fat and/or meat may increase risk is quite consistent. The observed relative risks are small (about a 30% increase for high v. low consumption) but may have been underestimated because of inaccurate measurement of diet and further study of this topic is needed. The evidence does not support the hypothesis that carotene intake is associated with risk. There is reasonably consistent evidence suggesting that an increased risk for prostate cancer is associated with a high level of sexual activity and/or a history of sexually transmitted disease, and with vasectomy. These observations need further investigation to eliminate the possibility that they are due to biases. Much more information is needed. Prospective studies, with dietary and lifestyle questionnaires and stored blood samples, are needed to answer the outstanding questions.
TL;DR: The study provides clear evidence that aspirin is unrelated to renal‐cell cancer risk, and the hypothesis that analgesics containing phenacetin or paracetamol increase the risk is not supported, although the number of “regular” users and the amount of these types of analgesic consumed were too small to confidently rule out a minor carcinogenic effect of Phenacetin and paracetemol.
Abstract: There has been concern about the role of analgesics in the development of renal-cell cancer, although a few studies have reported moderately elevated risks with regular or long-term use. In a large ...
TL;DR: Rate ratios which are four to six times those measured by conventional Italian cancer registries can hardly be totally explained by bias produced by lack of recognition of occupational or paraoccupational exposure.
Abstract: OBJECTIVES--To assess and quantify the occurrence of pleural malignant mesotheliomas in people who neither experienced occupational exposure to asbestos nor were married to (or known to live with) workers exposed to asbestos in the workplace. The study was conducted in the area of the local health authority of Casale Monferrato, in north western Italy, where a large factory that produced asbestos cement was active up to 1985. No other major activities related to asbestos have ever been present in the area. METHODS--A retrospective survey covering the period 1980 to 1991 identified 126 incident pleural malignant mesotheliomas histologically diagnosed among residents in the local health authority (population at the 1981 census 98,000). Submission of 83 of 95 cases diagnosed during 1980-9 for revision by a panel of five expert pathologists led to the exclusion of 21. The 31 cases diagnosed in 1990-1 were not submitted for revision. For 64 of the 105 retained cases, information derived from different sources (rosters of the employees in the asbestos cement factory dated back to 1907, list of their spouses, clinical records) did not suggest occupational or paraoccupational exposure to asbestos. RESULTS--Incidence excludes cases for which there was some suggestion of occupational or paraoccupational exposure to asbestos. Incidence of histologically confirmed malignant mesothelioma among residents in the local health authority (annual x 100,000; age adjusted) was 4.2 in men and 2.3 in women (based on 26 and 18 cases respectively). In both sexes, rates in 1985-9 were higher than in the previous quinquennium. Corresponding estimates for 1990-1 (based on unrevised diagnoses) suggest similar rates in men and women. CONCLUSION--Rate ratios which are four to six times those measured by conventional Italian cancer registries can hardly be totally explained by bias produced by lack of recognition of occupational or paraoccupational exposure. The problem of proving this type of negative data is common to other circumstances of alleged cancer clusters of environmental (non occupational) origin.
TL;DR: The use of routine mortality statistics to chart progress against cancer lacks validity at older ages because of imprecision in certification of cause of death.
Abstract: The effect of changes in recording and coding of cause of death on trends in cancer mortality in England and Wales in persons aged 45 and over during 1970-1990 is reviewed. During this period, all-cancer mortality rates increased only at ages over 75 in males and over 55 in females. Rises in cancer mortality were largely due to increases in cancer of lung, prostate and unspecified site in men, and of lung, breast and unspecified site in women. Death coding and certification artefacts were much larger in older persons. In those aged 75-84, a change in the position of recording cancer on the death certificate could potentially account for 46% of the recorded increase in prostate-cancer mortality and 28% of the increase in breast-cancer mortality. The decrease in recorded mortality from ill-defined terminal events was far greater than the increase in cancer mortality in this age group. The rise in all-cancer mortality in the elderly was partly due to an increase in lung-cancer mortality, and data artefacts explained a large proportion of the increase in the other common specified cancers in those aged 75-84. The use of routine mortality statistics to chart progress against cancer lacks validity at older ages because of imprecision in certification of cause of death.
TL;DR: A sib-pair analysis on 35 families in which there are either two or three affected brothers in which the presence of a susceptibility gene for testicular cancer in some families is suggested.
Abstract: Epidemiological data suggest the presence of a susceptibility gene for testicular cancer in some families. Families with multiple cases of testicular cancer are rare and almost all those reported have only two affected members. We have performed a sib-pair analysis on 35 families in which there are either two or three affected brothers. These families have been typed for 220 autosomal microsatellite markers spaced 10-20 cM throughout the genome. Six regions which gave a LOD score of more than 1.0 on formal linkage analysis or a P value of 0.05 or less using a non-parametric approach are considered as candidate regions for a susceptibility gene. Of particular interest is one region on chromosome 4. Two neighbouring probes in this region both scored positively with LOD score of 2.60 on multipoint analysis. An International Testis Cancer Linkage Consortium has been formed to pool resources and will investigate these findings further with the world-wide collection of families.
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TL;DR: Malignant diseases, especially colorectal cancer, are relatively common among patients with a clinical diagnosis of Diverticulosis or diverticulitis of the colon, which may indicate a need for a change in current clinical practice.
Abstract: But : Determiner chez les patients pour lesquels a ete pose un diagnostic de maladie diverticulaire du colon, l'incidence d'une affection maligne sous jacente. Type d'etude : Retrospective d'une cohorte. Provenance : Hopital universitaire, Suede. Patients : Sept mille cent cinquante neuf patients ayant quitte l'hopital avec un premier diagnostic de diverticulose ou de diverticulite dans le centre de la Suede entre 1965 et 1983. Methodes : Les patients de la cohorte ont ete suivis pendant deux ans pour rechercher un cancer. Principaux criteres de jugement : La survenue d'un cancer. Resultats : Trois cent soixante douze cancers au total ont ete identifies (pourcentage d'incidence standard = 2,4 ; intervalle de confiance de 95% (IC95%) ; 2,2 a 2,7). Les sites preferentiels de developpement d'un cancer pendant la premiere annee etaient : le colon et le rectum, le pancreas, la prostate, l'estomac, les tissus lymphatique et hematopoietique, le foie et les voies biliaires, l'ovaire, et les poumons ; le risque le plus eleve concernant le colon guache (pourcentage d'incidence standard = 17,8 ; IC 95% ; 12,7 a 24,1). Conclusion : Les affections malignes, et notamment les cancers colorectaux sont relativement frequents parmi les patients chez lesquels a ete pose clininquement le diagnostic de diverticulose ou de diverticulite du colon. Cela pourrait inviter a modifier les habitudes cliniques dans ce domaine.
TL;DR: It is concluded that low stage tumours are highly differentiated in biochemical terms despite their frequently immature histology, and none of the neuronal differentiation markers investigated could add to the prediction of aggressive disease when compared with this model.
TL;DR: To study the effects of changes in smoking and exercise habits on body weight in Sweden, a large number of people have given up smoking and exercised less, and the proportion of those who smoke and those who exercise has increased.
Abstract: . Objectives. To study the effects of changes in smoking and exercise habits on body weight in Sweden.
Design. Analysis of factors affecting relative body weight by construction of regression equations using two models: one adjusted for age, education, socioeconomic group, geographical region and nationality, the other further adjusted for cigarette smoking and leisure-time physical activity.
Setting. Cross-sectional interview data derived from the ‘Undersokning om LevnadsForhallanden’ (Living Conditions) survey 1980–81 and 1989–89.
Subjects. Nationally representative samples of Swedish men and women aged 16–84.
Main outcome measures. Changes in body-mass index (BMI) in Sweden during the 1980s.
Results. Using the first model, an increase in the BMI of 0.23 kg/m2 in men and 0.17 kg/m2 in women, from 1980 to 1989, was found. When controlling for smoking and physical activity, these values were 0.20 and 0.18 kg/m2, respectively, (P at least < 0.003).
Conclusions. These findings indicate that the reported decrease in smoking and changes in physical activity during the 1980s only marginally explain the BMI increase in the adult Swedish population. The health programmes launched during the 1980s seem to have little beneficial effects on body-weight development, in particular in younger generations of both sexes.
Journal Article•
TL;DR: There have been significant declines in smoking among adolescents over the last three decades, and further inroads into smoking in this age group may well depend upon greater restrictions of access to cigarettes and overcoming barriers to the implementation of school based educational programmes.
Abstract: AIM To examine the prevalence of smoking among New Zealand youth from the 1960's to the 1990's to determine whether smoking among the young is increasing or decreasing. METHOD Major surveys of smoking among adolescents were reviewed and analysed to identify trends in smoking over time. Using data from the Dunedin and Christchurch longitudinal studies of child development, it was also possible to examine recent cohort changes in uptake of smoking. RESULTS Evidence suggests that by the 1990's about one in every five 15 year-olds had smoked in the last month, while about one in every ten smoked daily. This represents a significant decline from very high levels of smoking in the 1970's, and appears to have occurred among boys and girls, European and Maori, although perhaps less so among adolescent girls. CONCLUSION Despite some community perceptions to the contrary, there have been significant declines in smoking among adolescents over the last three decades. Overall, the data present a somewhat encouraging view of smoking among New Zealand youth. However, further inroads into smoking in this age group may well depend upon greater restrictions of access to cigarettes and overcoming barriers to the implementation of school based educational programmes.
TL;DR: It is found that the husband's assessment of the marital relationship was significantly related to the patient's psychosocial outcome at 13 months (p <0.05), reinforcing the assumption that a supportive marital relationship is important for psychossocial adjustment.
Abstract: The married couple´s assessment of the experience of early breast cancer - a longitudinal interview study.
TL;DR: The crude five-year survival rate for SCCPPW was 22 percent and was not significantly different from that of patients with lateral wall tumours, and both local control and recurrences also were not statistically different.
Abstract: Squamous cell carcinoma of the posterior oro-and hypopharyngeal wall (SCCPPW) is a relatively rare tumour. A retrospective investigation of 63 patients with SCCPPW and 449 patients with carcinoma of the lateral oro- and hypopharyngeal wall, treated between 1964and 1992, has been carried out. Most SCCPPW were asymptomatic, macroscopically superficial and at early stages. They were usually detected by chance during an examination for a different type of malignancy. Fifty-seven per cent of SCCPPW patients had multiple tumours; however this occurrence did not alter the survival rate. The crude five-year survival rate for SCCPPW was 22 per cent and was not significantly different from that of patients with lateral wall tumours. Moreover, both local control and recurrences also were not statistically different.
TL;DR: It is forecast that melanoma will be a much larger burden on the health care system in the early years of the next century than it is at present and the assumptions underlying the MEL model suggest possible relationships between UVR and melanoma.
Abstract: A long term increase in incidence of and mortality due to malignant melanoma has been observed in all well documented white populations. The major identified cause of melanoma is sun exposure. One would expect predictions of future atmospheric ozone depletion to lead to an increase in ultraviolet radiation (UVR) and in the effects of sun exposure. We consider age-period data for Canadian malignant malanoma mortality. We fit a multiplicative exponential/logistic (MEL) model to the data and extrapolate to AD 2010 hence yielding point estimates of future rates. We obtain total mortality forecasts by multiplying rates by population estimates. We present standard errors for forecasts. We forecast that melanoma will be a much larger burden on the health care system in the early years of the next century than it is at present. We obtain an age-cohort model by a simple transformation of the age-period model. Also, we obtain unconditional probabilities of death due to melanoma both for age-period and age-cohort models. We discuss the assumptions underlying the MEL model that suggest possible relationships between UVR and melanoma.
TL;DR: From this analysis, the existence of a true increase in incidence of brain glioma among young and middle-aged male adults during recent decades is suggested.
TL;DR: The Otago-Southland Breast Screening programme was set up to find out how acceptable and effective breast screening would be for New Zealand women aged between 50 and 64 years and examines the performance of the radiologists in the first 18 months of the pilot programme.
TL;DR: Data indicate that lung cancer risk among miners is inversely associated with exposure rate, and also is influenced by the presence of other lung carcinogens such as arsenic in the mine environment, and preliminary indications are that the risks per unit dose for most cancers other than leukemia are similar to those for acute exposure.
Abstract: Estimates of cancer risks following exposure to ionizing radiation traditionally have been based on the experience of populations exposed to substantial (and known) doses delivered over short perio...