Showing papers by "Cardiff University published in 2001"

Evaluating presence-absence models in ecology: the need to account for prevalence

Abstract: • 1. Models for predicting the distribution of organisms from environmental data are widespread in ecology and conservation biology. Their performance is invariably evaluated from the percentage success at predicting occurrence at test locations. • 2. Using logistic regression with real data from 34 families of aquatic invertebrates in 180 Himalayan streams, we illustrate how this widespread measure of predictive accuracy is affected systematically by the prevalence (i.e. the frequency of occurrence) of the target organism. Many evaluations of presence–absence models by ecologists are inherently misleading. • 3. With the same invertebrate models, we examined alternative performance measures used in remote sensing and medical diagnostics. We particularly explored receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) plots, from which were derived (i) the area under each curve (AUC), considered an effective indicator of model performance independent of the threshold probability at which the presence of the target organism is accepted, and (ii) optimized probability thresholds that maximize the percentage of true absences and presences that are correctly identified. We also evaluated Cohen's kappa, a measure of the proportion of all possible cases of presence or absence that are predicted correctly after accounting for chance effects. • 4. AUC measures from ROC plots were independent of prevalence, but highly significantly correlated with the much more easily computed kappa. Moreover, when applied in predictive mode to test data, models with thresholds optimized by ROC erroneously overestimated true occurrence among scarcer organisms, often those of greatest conservation interest. We advocate caution in using ROC methods to optimize thresholds required for real prediction. • 5. Our strongest recommendation is that ecologists reduce their reliance on prediction success as a performance measure in presence–absence modelling. Cohen's kappa provides a simple, effective, standardized and appropriate statistic for evaluating or comparing presence–absence models, even those based on different statistical algorithms. None of the performance measures we examined tests the statistical significance of predictive accuracy, and we identify this as a priority area for research and development.

Recognition memory: what are the roles of the perirhinal cortex and hippocampus?

Abstract: The hallmark of medial temporal lobe amnesia is a loss of episodic memory such that patients fail to remember new events that are set in an autobiographical context (an episode). A further symptom is a loss of recognition memory. The relationship between these two features has recently become contentious. Here, we focus on the central issue in this dispute — the relative contributions of the hippocampus and the perirhinal cortex to recognition memory. A resolution is vital not only for uncovering the neural substrates of these key aspects of memory, but also for understanding the processes disrupted in medial temporal lobe amnesia and the validity of animal models of this syndrome.

Nonlinear Mean‐Reversion in Real Exchange Rates: Toward a Solution To the Purchasing Power Parity Puzzles

Abstract: We fit nonlinearly mean-reverting models to real dollar exchange rates over the post-Bretton Woods period, consistent with a theoretical literature on transactions costs in international arbitrage. The half lives of real exchange rate shocks, calculated through Monte Carlo integration, imply faster adjustment speeds than hitherto recorded. Monte Carlo simulations reconcile our results with the large empirical literature on unit roots in real exchange rates by showing that when the real exchange rate is nonlinearly mean reverting, standard univariate unit root tests have low power, while multivariate tests have much higher power to reject a false null hypothesis.

An Integrated Model for the Design of Agile Supply Chains.

Abstract: The latter part of the twentieth century saw the lean production paradigm positively impact many market sectors ranging from automotive through to construction. In particular there is much evidence to suggest that level scheduling combined with the elimination of muda has successfully delivered a wide range of products to those markets where cost is the primary order winning criteria. However, there are many other markets where the order winner is availability. This has led to the emergence of the agile paradigm typified by “quick response” and similar initiatives. Nevertheless, “lean” and “agile” are not mutually exclusive paradigms and may be married to advantage in a number of different ways. This paper explores ways in which hybrid strategies can be developed to create cost‐effective supply chains and proposes an integrated manufacture/logistics model for enabling the essential infrastructure.

Electrosurgical instrument and an electrosurgery system including such an instrument

Abstract: In an electrosurgical system which is operable within the frequency range of from 100 kHz to 50 MHz and which has a handheld instrument with an elongate instrument shaft, the distal end of the shaft carries a bipolar electrode assembly for use in a conductive fluid field. The electrode assembly has an active electrode and, set back from the active electrode, a return electrode coated with an insulative dielectric layer. The insulative layer may be made of a plastics or a ceramic material and acts as the dielectric of a capacitor when the electrode assembly is immersed in the conductive fluid. One of the effects of the insulative layer is to provide a more uniformly distributed electric field over the return electrode than is obtained with an exposed return electrode, yielding improved tissue desiccation and vaporisation characteristics. The active electrode may have a similar dielectric covering.

An electrosurgical system

Abstract: An electrosurgical system comprises a radio frequency generator (1), an electrosurgical instrument (E1), and a fluid enclosure (42). The generator (1) has a radio frequency output for delivery of power to the electrosurgical instrument (E1) when immersed in an electrically-conductive fluid. The electrosurgical instrument (E1) has an electrode assembly (32) at the distal end thereof, the electrode assembly comprising a tissue treatment electrode (34), and a return electrode (38) axially spaced therefrom in such a manner as to define, in use, a conductive fluid path that completes an electrical circuit between the tissue treatment electrode and the return electrode. The fluid enclosure (42) is adapted to surround an operation site on the skin of a patient or an incision leading to a cavity surgically created within the patient's body. The fluid enclosure (42) includes sealing means (44) for sealing against the patient's tissue, and the fluid enclosure includes at least one port (50a, 52a) through which the electrosurgical (E1) is insertable, and through which the electrically-conductive fluid can enter and/or leave the enclosure.

Thyroid hormones in growth and development of fish

Abstract: The thyroid hormones (THs), thyroxine (T4) and triiodothyronine (T3) are products of the thyroid gland in all vertebrates. Their role in early development and metamorphosis is well established in mammals and amphibians, respectively, and recently several studies in fish have highlighted the importance of THs during flatfish metamorphosis. THs are present in high quantities in fish eggs and are presumably of maternal origin. During embryogenesis the concentration of T4 and T3 in the eggs decrease until endogenous production starts. Thyroid hormone receptors (TR) have been isolated from several teleosts and in common with tetrapods two receptor isoforms have been identified, TRα and TRβ. Both the receptors are expressed in early embryos and larvae of the Japanese flounder (Paralichthys olivaceus), zebrafish (Danio rerio) and seabream (Sparus aurata) although a different temporal pattern is apparent. The role of THs and TRs in fish embryogenesis, larval development and during metamorphosis will be discussed.

The soluble interleukin 6 receptor: mechanisms of production and implications in disease

Abstract: Interleukin 6 (IL-6) performs a prominent role during disease and has been described as both a pro- and anti-inflammatory cytokine. A key feature in the regulation of IL-6 responses has been the identification of a soluble interleukin 6 receptor (sIL-6R), which forms a ligand-receptor complex with IL-6 that is capable of stimulating a variety of cellular responses including proliferation, differentiation and activation of inflammatory processes. Elevated sIL-6R levels have been documented in numerous clinical conditions indicating that its production is coordinated as part of a disease response. Thus, sIL-6R has the potential to regulate both local and systemic IL-6-mediated events. This review will outline the central role of sIL-6R in the coordination of IL-6 responses. Details relating to the mechanisms of sIL-6R production will be provided, while the potential significance of sIL-6R during the development of clinical conditions will be emphasized. We want to convey, therefore, that when thinking about the inflammatory capability of IL-6, it is essential to consider not only the action of IL-6 itself, but also the effect sIL-6R may have on cellular processes.

The HI Parkes All Sky Survey: southern observations, calibration and robust imaging

Abstract: The acquisition of HI Parkes All Shy Survey (HIPASS) southern sky data commenced at the Australia Telescope National Facility's Parkes 64-m telescope in 1997 February, and was completed in 2000 March. HIPASS is the deepest HI survey yet of the sky south of declination +2 degrees, and is sensitive to emission out to 170 h(75)(-1) Mpc. The characteristic root mean square noise in the survey images is 13.3 mJy. This paper describes the survey observations, which comprise 23 020 eight-degree scans of 9-min duration, and details the techniques used to calibrate and image the data. The processing algorithms are successfully designed to be statistically robust to the presence of interference signals, and are particular to imaging point (or nearly point) sources. Specifically, a major improvement in image quality is obtained by designing a median-gridding algorithm which uses the median estimator in place of the mean estimator.

Spontaneous astrocytic Ca2+ oscillations in situ drive NMDAR-mediated neuronal excitation.

Abstract: Astrocytes respond to chemical, electrical and mechanical stimuli with transient increases in intracellular calcium concentration ([Ca2+]i). We now show that astrocytes in situ display intrinsic [Ca2+]i oscillations that are not driven by neuronal activity. These spontaneous astrocytic oscillations can propagate as waves to neighboring astrocytes and trigger slowly decaying NMDA receptor-mediated inward currents in neurons located along the wave path. These findings show that astrocytes in situ can act as a primary source for generating neuronal activity in the mammalian central nervous system.

The Role of the Nucleus Accumbens in Instrumental Conditioning: Evidence of a Functional Dissociation between Accumbens Core and Shell

Abstract: In three experiments we examined the effect of bilateral excitotoxic lesions of the nucleus accumbens core or shell subregions on instrumental performance, outcome devaluation, degradation of the instrumental contingency, Pavlovian conditioning, and Pavlovian-instrumental transfer. Rats were food deprived and trained to press two levers, one delivering food pellets and the other a sucrose solution. All animals acquired the lever-press response although the rate of acquisition and overall response rates in core-lesioned animals were depressed relative to that in the shell- or sham-lesioned animals. Furthermore, in shell- and sham-lesioned rats, post-training devaluation of one of the two outcomes using a specific satiety procedure produced a selective reduction in performance on the lever that, in training, delivered the prefed outcome. In contrast, the core-lesioned rats failed to show a selective devaluation effect and reduced responding on both levers. Subsequent tests revealed that these effects of core lesions were not caused by an impairment in their ability to recall the devalued outcome, to discriminate the two outcomes, or to encode the instrumental action-outcome contingencies to which they were exposed. Additionally, the core lesions did not have any marked effect on Pavlovian conditioning or on Pavlovian-instrumental transfer. Importantly, although shell-lesioned rats showed no deficit in any test of instrumental conditioning or in Pavlovian conditioning, they failed to show any positive transfer in the Pavlovian-instrumental transfer test. This double dissociation suggests that nucleus accumbens core and shell differentially mediate the impact of instrumental and Pavlovian incentive processes, respectively, on instrumental performance.

Antimicrobial properties of Allium sativum (garlic).

Abstract: Although garlic has been used for its medicinal properties for thousands of years, investigations into its mode of action are relatively recent. Garlic has a wide spectrum of actions; not only is it antibacterial, antiviral, antifungal and antiprotozoal, but it also has beneficial effects on the cardiovascular and immune systems. Resurgence in the use of natural herbal alternatives has brought the use of medicinal plants to the forefront of pharmacological investigations, and many new drugs are being discovered. This review aims to address the historical use of garlic and its sulfur chemistry, and to provide a basis for further research into its antimicrobial properties.

The anatomical basis for disease localisation in seronegative spondyloarthropathy at entheses and related sites.

Abstract: The 2 major categories of idiopathic inflammatory arthritis are rheumatoid arthritis and the seronegative spondyloarthropathies. Whilst the synovium is the primary site of joint disease in the former, the primary site in the latter is less well defined. However, it has recently been proposed that enthesitis-associated changes in the spondyloarthropathies are primary and that all other joint manifestations are secondary. Nevertheless, some of the sites of disease localisation have not been adequately explained in terms of enthesitis. This article summarises current knowledge of the structure, function, blood supply, innervation, molecular composition and histopathology of the classic enthesis (i.e. the bony attachment of a tendon or ligament) and introduces the concept of ‘functional’ and articular ‘fibrocartilaginous’ entheses. The former are regions where tendons or ligaments wrap-around bony pulleys, but are not attached to them, and the latter are synovial joints that are lined by fibrocartilage rather than hyaline cartilage. We describe how these 3 types of entheses relate to other, and how all are prone to pathological changes in spondyloarthropathy. We propose that the inflammatory responses characteristic of spondyloarthropathies are triggered at these seemingly diverse sites, in genetically susceptible individuals, by a combination of anatomical factors which lead to higher levels of tissue microtrauma, and the deposition of microbes.

Life-history strategies in parasitoid wasps: a comparative analysis of ‘ovigeny’

Abstract: 1. Ecologists concerned with life-history strategies of parasitoid wasps have recently focused on interspecific variation in the fraction of the maximum potential lifetime egg complement that is mature when the female emerges into the environment. Species that have all of this complement mature upon emergence are termed 'pro-ovigenic', while those that do not are termed 'synovigenic'. We document and quantify the diversity of egg maturation patterns among 638 species of parasitoid wasps from 28 families. 2. We test a series of hypotheses concerning variation in 'ovigeny' and likely life- history correlates by devising a quantitative index - the proportion of the maximum potential lifetime complement that is mature upon female emergence. 3. Synovigeny, which we define as emerging with at least some immature eggs, was found to be by far the predominant egg maturation pattern (98.12% of species). Even allowing for some taxonomic bias in our sample of species, pro-ovigeny is rare among parasitoid wasps. 4. There is strong evidence for a predicted continuum in ovigeny index among parasitoid wasps, from pro-ovigenic (ovigeny index = 1) to extremely synovigenic species (ovigeny index = 0). 5. As predicted, synovigenic species are longer-lived than pro- ovigenic ones, and ovigeny index and life span are negatively correlated across parasitoid taxa, suggesting a life span cost of concentrating reproductive effort early in adult life. 6. There is equivocal evidence that host feeding (i.e, consumption of host haemolymph and/or tissues by adult wasps) is confined to synovigenic parasitoid wasps. It is also not certain from our analyses whether host feeding is associated with a relatively low ovigeny index. 7. As predicted, egg resorption capability is concentrated among producers of yolk-rich eggs. Also, the hypothesis that it is associated with a tendency towards a low ovigeny index is supported. Parasitoid species that produce yolk-rich eggs also exhibit a lower ovigeny index than species that produce yolk-deficient eggs. 8. Ovigeny index appears to be linked to parasitoid development mode (koinobiosis-idiobiosis). 9. We conclude that 'ovigeny' is a concept applicable to insects generally. [KEYWORDS: feeding strategies; pro-ovigeny; synovigeny; timing of reproduction Leptopilina-boulardi hymenoptera; host-feeding strategies; egg limitation; reproductive-biology; clutch size; independent contrasts; functional-response; asobara-tabida; drosophila-melanogaster; evolutionary argument]

Cosmology from MAXIMA-1, BOOMERANG, and COBE DMR cosmic microwave background observations.

Abstract: Recent results from BOOMERANG-98 and MAXIMA-1, taken together with COBE DMR, provide consistent and high signal-to-noise measurements of the cosmic microwave background power spectrum at spherical harmonic multipole bands over 2

Muscarinic Receptor Agonists and Antagonists

Abstract: A comprehensive review of pharmacological and medical aspects of the muscarinic class of acetylcholine agonists and antagonists is presented. The therapeutic benefits of achieving receptor subtype selectivity are outlined and applications in the treatment of Alzheimer’s disease are discussed. A selection of chemical routes are described, which illustrate contemporary methodology for the synthesis of chiral medicinal compounds (asymmetric synthesis, chiral pool, enzymes). Routes to bicyclic intrannular amines and intramolecular Diels-Alder reactions are highlighted.

Glutathione S-transferases as antioxidant defence agents confer pyrethroid resistance in Nilaparvata lugens.

Abstract: Selection of a laboratory colony of the brown planthopper Nilaparvata lugens with the pyrethroids permethrin and lambda-cyhalothrin increased its resistance to both insecticides. Biochemical analysis and synergistic studies with metabolic inhibitors indicated that elevated glutathione S-transferases (GSTs) with a predominant peroxidase activity conferred resistance to both pyrethroids, whereas esterases conferred part of the resistance to permethrin. Purified esterases hydrolysed permethrin at a slow rate, but incubation of either pyrethroid or their primary metabolites with partially purified GSTs had no effect on the metabolic profile. Although GSTs were sensitive to inhibition by both pyrethroids, they did not serve as binding proteins, as previously hypothesized [Grant and Matsumura (1988) Insect Biochem. 18, 615-622]. We demonstrate that pyrethroids, in addition to their neurotoxic effect, induce oxidative stress and lipid peroxidation in insects. Pyrethroid exposure induced lipid peroxides, protein oxidation and depleted reduced glutathione. Elevated GSTs in the resistant strains attenuated the pyrethroid-induced lipid peroxidation and reduced mortality, whereas their in vivo inhibition eliminated their protective role. We therefore hypothesize that the main role of elevated GSTs in conferring resistance in N. lugens is through protecting tissues from oxidative damage. Our study extends the GSTs' range of efficacy to pyrethroid insecticides and possibly explains the role of elevated GSTs in other pyrethroid-resistant insects.

Golden goose or wild goose? The hunt for the green consumer

Abstract: The green consumer has been the central character in the development of green marketing, as businesses attempt to understand and respond to external pressures to improve their environmental performance. Marketing practitioners and academics are attempting to identify and understand green consumers and their needs, and to develop market offerings that meet these needs. So far there is little consensus about the identity and nature of green consumers, except that they have been something of a disappointment to the marketers who have pursued them. These difficulties perhaps reflect the folly of trying to understand green consumption and green marketing by viewing it as simply a variation on conventional marketing. This article proposes some different ways of looking at green consumption and green marketing, which have the potential to prevent the hunt for the green consumer from deteriorating into a wild goose chase. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment

Intellectual problems shown by 11-year-old children whose mothers had postnatal depression.

Abstract: The aim of the study was to examine long-term sequelae in the children of mothers who were depressed at 3 months postpartum. In a community sample from two general practices in South London, 149 women were given psychiatric interviews at 3 months postpartum and 132 of their children (89%) were tested at 11 years of age. The children of women who were depressed at 3 months postpartum had significantly lower IQ scores. They also had attentional problems and difficulties in mathematical reasoning, and were more likely than other children to have special educational needs. Boys were more severely affected than girls, with the sex difference most pronounced on Performance IQ. The links between postnatal depression and the children's intellectual problems were not mediated by parental IQ and were not accounted for by measures of social disadvantage nor by the mother's later mental health problems. Breastfeeding did not remove the effect of the mother's illness on Full Scale IQ, but exerted its own influence on Verbal IQ and appeared to mediate the link with mathematical ability. The findings show that adverse experiences in infancy predict cognitive ability and academic performance a decade later.

The effects of induced hypogonadism on arterial stiffness, body composition, and metabolic parameters in males with prostate cancer

Abstract: Sex hormones appear to play a pivotal role in determining cardiovascular risk. Androgen deprivation therapy for males with prostate cancer results in a hypogonadal state that may have important, but as yet undetermined, effects on the vasculature. We studied the effects of androgen deprivation therapy on large artery stiffness in 22 prostate cancer patients (mean age, 67 +/- 8 yr) over a 6-month period. Arterial stiffness was assessed using pulse-wave analysis, a technique that measures peripheral arterial pressure waveforms and generates corresponding central aortic waveforms. This allows determination of the augmentation of central pressure resulting from wave reflection and the augmentation index, a measure of large artery stiffness. Body compositional changes were assessed using bioelectrical impedance analysis. Fasting lipids, glucose, insulin, testosterone, and estradiol were measured. After a 3-month treatment period, the augmentation index increased from 24 +/- 6% (mean +/- SD) at baseline to 29 +/- 9% (P = 0.003) despite no change in peripheral blood pressure. Timing of wave reflection was reduced from 137 +/- 7 to 129 +/- 10 msec (P = 0.003). Fat mass increased from 20.2 +/- 9.4 to 21.9 +/- 9.6 kg (P = 0.008), whereas lean body mass decreased from 63.2 +/- 6.8 to 61.5 +/- 6.0 kg (P = 0.016). There were no changes in lipids or glucose during treatment. Median serum insulin rose from 11.8 (range, 5.6-49.1) to 15.1 (range, 7.3-83.2) mU/liter at 1 month (P = 0.021) and to 19.3 (range, 0-85.0 mU/liter by 3 months (P = 0.020). There was a correlation between the changes in fat mass and insulin concentration over the 3-month period (r = 0.56; P = 0.013). In a subgroup of patients whose treatment was discontinued after 3 months, the augmentation index decreased from 31 +/- 7% at 3 months to 29 +/- 5% by 6 months, in contrast to patients receiving continuing treatment in whom the augmentation index remained elevated at 6 months compared with baseline (P = 0.043). These data indicate that induced hypogonadism in males with prostate cancer results in a rise in the augmentation of central arterial pressure, suggesting large artery stiffening. Adverse body compositional changes associated with rising insulin concentrations suggest reduced insulin sensitivity. These adverse hemodynamic and metabolic effects may increase cardiovascular risk in this patient group.

Macular pigment and risk for age-related macular degeneration in subjects from a Northern European population.

Abstract: PURPOSE: Age and advanced disease in the fellow eye are the two most important risk factors for age-related macular degeneration (AMD). In this study, the authors investigated the relationship between these variables and the optical density of macular pigment (MP) in a group of subjects from a northern European population. METHODS: The optical density of MP was measured psychophysically in 46 subjects ranging in age from 21 to 81 years with healthy maculae and in 9 healthy eyes known to be at high-risk of AMD because of advanced disease in the fellow eye. Each eye in the latter group was matched with a control eye on the basis of variables believed to be associated with the optical density of MP (iris color, gender, smoking habits, age, and lens density). RESULTS: There was an age-related decline in the optical density of macular pigment among volunteers with no ocular disease (right eye: r(2) = 0.29, P = 0.0006; left eye: r(2) = 0.29, P < 0.0001). Healthy eyes predisposed to AMD had significantly less MP than healthy eyes at no such risk (Wilcoxon's signed rank test: P = 0.015). CONCLUSIONS: The two most important risk factors for AMD are associated with a relative absence of MP. These findings are consistent with the hypothesis that supplemental lutein and zeaxanthin may delay, avert, or modify the course of this disease.

Individual-based modelling of biofilms.

Abstract: Understanding the emergence of the complex organization of biofilms from the interactions of its parts, individual cells and their environment, is the aim of the individual-based modelling (IbM) approach. This IbM is version 2 of BacSim, a model of Escherichia coli colony growth, which was developed into a two-dimensional multi-substrate, multi-species model of nitrifying biofilms. It was compared with the established biomass-based model (BbM) of Picioreanu and others. Both models assume that biofilm growth is due to the processes of diffusion, reaction and growth (including biomass growth, division and spreading). In the IbM, each bacterium was a spherical cell in continuous space and had variable growth parameters. Spreading of biomass occurred by shoving of cells to minimize overlap between cells. In the BbM, biomass was distributed in a discrete grid and each species had uniform growth parameters. Spreading of biomass occurred by cellular automata rules. In the IbM, the effect of random variation of growth parameters of individual bacteria was negligible in contrast to the E. coli colony model, because the heterogeneity of substrate concentrations in the biofilm was more important. The growth of a single cell into a clone, and therefore also the growth of the less abundant species, depended on the randomly chosen site of attachment, owing to the heterogeneity of substrate concentrations in the biofilm. The IbM agreed with the BbM regarding the overall growth of the biofilm, due to the same diffusion-reaction processes. However, the biofilm shape was different due to the different biomass spreading mechanisms. The IbM biofilm was more confluent and rounded due to the steady, deterministic and directionally unconstrained spreading of the bacteria. Since the biofilm shape is influenced by the spreading mechanism, it is partially independent of growth, which is driven by diffusion-reaction. Chance in initial attachment events modifies the biofilm shape and the growth of single cells because of the high heterogeneity of substrate concentrations in the biofilm, which again results from the interaction of diffusion-reaction with spreading. This stresses the primary importance of spreading and chance in addition to diffusion-reaction in the emergence of the complexity of the biofilm community.

Consumers and brands: a study of the impact of self-image congruence on brand preference and satisfaction

Abstract: Previous research indicates that the self-image product image congruity (commonly known as self-image congruence) can affect consumers’ product preferences and their purchase intentions. Self-image congruence can also facilitate positive behaviour and attitudes toward products. This paper reports findings from a research study which was conducted to determine the effect of self-image congruity on brand preference and satisfaction in the precious jewellery market in the UK. A questionnaire was sent to 500 consumers of precious jewellery in five major cities of the UK. Results indicate that self-image congruity was a very strong predictor of consumers’ brand preferences and a good predictor of consumer satisfaction. Respondents with higher levels of self-image congruity were more likely to prefer the brand and enjoy higher levels of satisfaction with the brand as compared to those with lower levels of self-image congruity. The paper discusses the implications for brand managers so that they can position their brands in an effective way.