Showing papers by "Central Economics and Mathematics Institute published in 2006"

Learning about the carbon cycle from global budget data

Abstract: [1] Observation-based estimates of the global carbon budget serve as important constraints on carbon cycle models. We test the effect of new budget data on projection uncertainty. Using a simple global model, we find that data for an additional decadal budget have only a marginal effect on projection uncertainty, in the absence of any constraints on decadal variability in carbon fluxes. Even if uncertainty in the global budget were eliminated entirely, uncertainty in the mechanisms governing carbon sinks have a much larger effect on future projections. Results suggest that learning about the carbon cycle will best be facilitated by improved understanding of sink mechanisms and their variability as opposed to better estimates of the magnitudes of fluxes that make up the global carbon budget.

An Evolutionary Theory of Economic Policy: Part I: The Experience of Fast Development

Abstract: This article presents the first part of the work on how instruments and methods of the growth promotion should change as a country approaches the level of advanced economies in terms of welfare and the quality of institutions. We describe the evolution of economic policies in Western countries and also in countries that became known as "economic miracles" during their catch up development. Our analysis allows to trace the major directions of such evolution: from import substitution to export orientation, from regulation of import tariffs to non-selective policy of the real exchange rate undervaluation, from import of technology to domestically based research and development, from creation of large companies to support of small and medium-size firms.

Introduction to the theory of functional differential equations and their applications. Group approach

Abstract: In this work, we give an introduction to the theory of nonlinear functional differential equations of pointwise type on a finite interval, semi-axis, or axis. This approach is based on the formalism using group peculiarities of such differential equations. For the main boundary-value problem and the Euler-Lagrange boundary-value problem, we consider the existence and uniqueness of the solution, the continuous dependence of the solution on boundary-value and initial-value conditions, and the “roughness” of functional differential equations in the considered boundary-value problems. For functional differential equations of pointwise type we also investigate the pointwise completeness of the space of solutions for given boundary-value conditions, give an estimate of the rank for the space of solutions, describe types of degeneration for the space of solutions, and establish conditions for the “smoothness” of the solution. We propose the method of regular extension of the class of ordinary differential equations in the class of functional differential equations of pointwise type.

Stages of Development, Economic Policies and a New World Economic Order

Abstract: This paper summarizes theoretical arguments, empirical evidence, and econometric findings to support the statement that rational economic policies depend qualitatively on stages of development that are defined by productivity and institutional indicators of a country. We consider the impact of industrial policies, speed of foreign exchange reserves accumulation, technology transfers and immigration policies, as well as FDI and liberalization of capital flows, on rate of economic growth. It is argued that the impact may be positive or negative; in many cases a threshold combination of GDP per capita and institutional quality indicators may be found to separate two different outcomes. A precondition of economic success is the timely switching of economic policies to avoid both types of mistakes: excessive inertia or premature use of instruments that are effective for more advance countries only. The stage of development theory implies that international financial institutions (including IMF, WB, and EBRD) should work out a list of differentiated prescriptions that may be efficiently followed by countries with different levels of institutional and technological development, and so the system of assistance to developing countries could be improved. This and some other elements of "a New World Economic Order" are discussed in the paper.

Optimality Conditions and Exact Solutions to the Two-Dimensional Monge-Kantorovich Problem

Abstract: We give optimality conditions for the Monge-Kantorovich and Monge problems and obtain exact solutions to several classical two-dimensional problems. Bibliography: 30 titles.

Information Resources for Evaluating the Development of Research Direction—`Fullerenes'

Abstract: The intent of the paper is to evaluate the progress of RD of ROSPATENT (patents), and of the Russian Higher Certification Commission (dissertation abstracts). Together with bibliometric statistics, institutional structure and socioeconomic problems of the scientific field development are considered.

Эволюционная теория экономической политики. Часть II. Необходимость своевременного переключения

Abstract: This is the second part (first part: Voprosy Ekonomiki, 2006, No 7) of the work on how economic policy of a developing country should change as it approaches the level of developed economies in terms of welfare (GDP per capita) and the quality of institutions. We focus on the impact of several policies to promote the catch up development: the speed of foreign exchange reserves accumulation ("exchange rate protectionism"); import tariffs; measures to attract foreign direct investment; import of technology versus indigenous RD regulation of migration and measures to support large versus small enterprises. The econometric analysis of the data on over 200 countries in 1975-1999 shows that the impact of these policies may be positive or negative depending on a stage of development; in each case we find threshold levels or critical combinations of GDP per capita and/or an institutional quality indicator. Thus, there is additional evidence to support the conclusions made in the first part of the article and based on the analysis of the evolution of economic policies in the Western countries and in the countries of successful catch up development ("economic miracles").

Minkowski sum of a parallelotope and a segment

Abstract: Not every parallelotope is such that the Minkowski sum of with a segment of the straight line along a vector is a parallelotope. If is a parallelotope, then is said to be free along . The parallelotope is not always a Voronoi polytope. The well-known Voronoi conjecture states that every parallelotope is affinely equivalent to a Voronoi polytope. An attempt is made to prove Voronoi's conjecture for . For that a class of canonically defined parallelotopes that are free along is introduced. It is proved that is affinely equivalent to a Voronoi polytope if and only if is a direct sum of parallelotopes of class .This simple case of the proof of Voronoi's conjecture is an instructive example for understanding the general case.

Free and nonfree Voronoi polyhedra

Abstract: The Voronoi polyhedron of some point v of a translation lattice is the closure of the set of points in space that are closer to v than to any other lattice points. Voronoi polyhedra are a special case of parallelohedra, i.e., polyhedra whose parallel translates can fill the entire space without gaps and common interior points. The Minkowski sum of a parallelohedron with a segment is not always a parallelohedron. A parallelohedron P is said to be free along a vector e if the sum of P with a segment of the line spanned by e is a parallelohedron. We prove a theorem stating that if the Voronoi polyhedron P v (f) of a quadratic form f is free along some vector, then the Voronoi polyhedron P v (g) of each form g lying in the closure of the L-domain of f is also free along some vector. For the dual root lattice E 6*, and the infinite series of lattices D 2 + , m ≥ 4, we prove that their Voronoi polyhedra are nonfree in all directions.

Corporate Governance and the Efficiency of Company’s Operation: The Case of Gazprom

Abstract: The article addresses the problem of efficiency of Gazprom from the shareholders standpoint. Special attention is paid to Gazprom cost structures both on the operational side and as a part of its capital expenditures. Comparative analysis of Gazprom vs its interantional peers adds more colors to the evaluation of cost efficiency. Different behavioural patterns of previous and current Gazprom management are outlined. Basing on the investigation of Gazprom Board of Directors influence on its efficiency the article provides practical reccomendations aimed at improving relationships in the triangle "shareholders — Board of Directors — management".

Best approximation problems relating to Monge-Kantorovich duality

Abstract: Problems of the best approximation of bounded continuous functions on a topological space by functions of the form are considered. Formulae for the values of the best approximations are obtained and the equivalence between the existence of precise solutions and the non-emptiness of the constraint set of the auxiliary dual Monge-Kantorovich problem with a special cost function is established. The form of precise solutions is described in terms relating to the Monge-Kantorovich duality, and for several classes of approximated functions the existence of precise solutions with additional properties, such as smoothness and periodicity, is proved.

Ratio-conjugation tool and its application in linear optimization models†

Abstract: The ratio-conjugation-tool (RC) is constructed systematically, and its applicability for analysis of economic models is demonstrated. One of the main results establishes a general formula for RC of aggregative function. This tool is applied to the analysis of linear economic dynamics models of Neumann–Gale type which can be solved by a dynamic programming method: for each direct problem we construct the corresponding dual RC-problem. Moreover, we consider three examples of the most important economic dynamics models and look at these now from a unified general position. † This article has been published in Russian in Economics and Mathematical Methods, 2006, 42(2), pp. 60–78 by the publishing house, Nauka, who have given permission to publish it in this journal.

Investment Attraction and Tax Reform: a Stochastic Model

Abstract: We study a model of the behavior of a potential investor (under risk and uncertainty) who wishes to invest in a project of creating a new enterprise and chooses an investment time (timing problem). This model takes the tax environment exhaustively into account. An optimal rule of investment and its dependence on parameters of tax system are obtained. Investigation is based on solving an optimal stopping problem for two-dimensional geometric Brownian motion. We apply Feinmann-Kac formula and variational inequalities as basic methods for deriving the closed-form formulas for optimal investment time and expected tax revenues from future enterprise into budgets of different levels. Based on those formulas, an analysis of the Russian reform of corporate profit taxation (2002) is undertaken, as well as of the tax cuts in VAT (2004) and Unified Social Tax (UST) Rates (2005).